Asian Bases

[kato13]

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DeaconR


Asian Bases

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There is very little talk in TW2000 about US and Australian naval bases and ports of call in the Asian seas. I'm curious about what might have been the fate of these, for instance the American ones on Guam and Okinawa. Would it not be possible for the allies to maintain some flow of oil from one of the viable areas in the Pacific or South China Sea?

I had had thoughts of allied naval and merchant shipping perhaps combining efforts even if isolated from their home countries and perhaps connecting up with Australia/Japan/Thailand and other areas to keep things going. It seems to me that these bases and the regional trade would be able to keep going somehow unless actually nuked or somehow overrun by the Chinese. (who are postulated as allies anyway) Also in the TW2000 context Hong Kong would still have been a British base--though I seem to recall that it IS nuked.

Because of this I find the Indonesia invading Australia situation a tad unlikely--it's the equivalent of saying that just because they have more people they could win a war with Australia. I find it more likely that they might try to invade Australian New Guinea--why who knows--than to try to plant their flag in Darwin.

DeaconR



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chico20854

Deacon-

We've talked a lot about this very aspect, and its key to the recovery plan Law, Jason, Flamingo and I are working on.

Given the very large merchant fleets at sea in the mid 90s and the limited (relative) size and scope of Pact naval operations there should be tens of thousands of merchant ships still intact in 2000. The (again relatively) limited nuclear exchange (especially if going by canon target lists) means the key elements of recovery remain intact - refineries, power plants. They are off-line as a result of the civil disturbances and dislocations following the nuclear exchange, but in most of the western world (outside of Germany) the physical infrastructure is still more or less intact. Recovery of these assets requires skilled manpower, fuel and electrical power to "jump start" them. The winding down of the war and return of organized, disciplined and technically competent troops under central command, coupled with a reinforcement of CENTCOM (following the evacuation of 8th Army from Korea to the Persian Gulf, as Frank Frey posted last summer), present Milgov with the opportunity to start this recovery.

A single tanker can carry a huge (for any PC group) quantity of oil with a small crew - 22 men can bring back over 40,000 tons of petroleum products in a single voyage and have enough fuel left aboard for a return trip. On the other hand, using a naval combatant as a tanker is a massively inefficient operation, given the large crew requirement, high fuel consumption and very limited cargo capacity when compared to a merchantman. (On the other hand, as Spanish Main points out, a missile frigate can change the regional balance of power in many areas).

The bases are "gravy" as far as a merchant-ship based recovery plan goes. There may be friendly locals, stranded friendly foreigners (such as British sailors stuck in Subic Bay or even American retirees), stocks of spare parts or other things worth looting/returning home. They also provide shelter should unexpected difficulties arise - mechanical failure, pirate attack, etc. I'd imagine Ivan would spare a cruise missile for Guam and some of the US bases in Okinawa, although by that reasoning he wouldn't have left several major SAC bases intact either...

We in DC have discussed the mechanics of Australian participation in the mid-late 2000s petroleum-merchant ship recovery voyages. There's a lot of interest in the ports of Darwin and Perth (based strictly on it's strategic location, I assure you!) as waypoints on the voyages to the Pacific Northwest (and probably BC too). This is also important as we imagine Indonesia, no matter what their intentions towards Australia and their ability to do or sustain anything after landing there, would likely quickly fall to pieces making the whole island group a festering mess of pirates and petty warlords that would make an unescorted voyage impossible.

We're working on concepts for the rest of Asia. Jason and Flamingo were working on Taiwan last week and we've do some work on the Japanese invasion of the Kuriles in mid-late 97, figuring out what lift is available and such.


chico20854


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Matt Wiser

Check the naval thread I did some time back; I have U.S.S. Constellation (CV-64) and her battle group moored at Guam, with U.S.S. Essex (LHD-2) with Marines that were headed for Korea when the nukes fell and the ships were ordered to find a safe port. Guam has the GU NG's 1-294 Inf Bn, plus the Marines that were headed for Korea, the USN personnel from NAS Agana, and the USAF's 43rd BW at Andersen AFB all still there. Not that they have much fuel for their aircraft, but several B-52s, B-1s, even a B-2 are kept in airworthy condition at Andersen, along with the Navy aircraft that relocated from NAS Agana. On Saipan and Tinian, there are additional Marines whose ships also didn't make it to Korea, formed into the 42nd MEU on Saipan, and the 43rd on Tinian. Kobler IAP on Saipan was used by SAC as a dispersal field for the 43rd BW's aircraft.

Most U.S. forces on Okinawa deployed to Korea or the Gulf, though I'd wonder why 3rd MarDiv didn't go to Korea and 4th MarDiv deploy to Iran in their place. Kadena AB on Okinawa was a target, for a Blackjack's AS-16 Kickback missile, but the JASDF's Patriots exploded the missile short of the target. 376th Strategic Wing is still on Okinawa with their KC-135s, but are very short of fuel. Other U.S. forces remaining are mainly the caretaker garrisons left when the 3rd MarDiv and III MEF deployed. 18th TFW deployed to Korea, btw.

Matt Wiser


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Targan

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeaconR
Because of this I find the Indonesia invading Australia situation a tad unlikely--it's the equivalent of saying that just because they have more people they could win a war with Australia. I find it more likely that they might try to invade Australian New Guinea--why who knows--than to try to plant their flag in Darwin.

I don't mind canon saying that the Indos invaded Darwin, because even if they did, we would make them pay very heavily in terms of ships and aircraft, and it would be a foregone conclusion that we'd kick them back out again. So even if canon says the Indos are in Darwin in 2000 or 2001, they wouldn't be there by 2002.

This "Australian New Guinea" of which you speak - although it would probably be better for Papua New Guinea if it was still an Australian protectorate, we actually handed self government to the New Guineans in 1975 (or there abouts). The New Guineans should have self governed the whole island, dammit, but those bastard Indos invaded West Papua and renamed it Irian Jaya. The Indos took East Timor off the Portuguese at about the same time, and the pissant, cowardly, weak Australian government of the time did't do a damn thing about it, even when the Indos lined up and shot five Australian journalists in East Timor. Weak as piss our government has been at times.

Of course nowdays we Australia is more likely to send in the SAS and Australian Army infantry to kick the Indos out of places like East Timor. And we have (and will continue to) kick the snot out of them.

Australia has sizeable oil and natural gas reserves, and crazy big amounts of coal and uranium still in the ground. I am sure there would be trade between the US and Australia for energy resources during and after the Twilight War. I don't know whether they would be nuked or not, but there are quite respectably large (and reasonably high tech) naval bases at Perth, Sydney and Darwin, and Perth and Sydney have submarine bases too. Valuable for the US forces during the war I would think.
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Targan


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Stilleto69

Due to cannon, basically leaving this area open for interpretation, I have always found it up to me the GM to explain things. I.e. in my game Guam was the target for a nuclear cruise missile strike, but the Soviet sub just happened to cross paths w/ the USS Indiana (a Seawolf-class) sub, result was the Indiana sank the Soviet sub just as it was preparing to launch. Thus Guam was spared, but because the last message sent by the Soviet sub was that it was carrying out its launch order, Soviet High Command believes that Guam was destroyed. As a result, Guam has basically become one huge "airbase" w/B-1Bs, B-52s and other aircraft stranded there.

Matt-
I agree with you, because according to cannon, the 3rd MarDiv deploys to Iran in Feb 97, yet North Korea invades late Dec 96, early Jan 97. So to compensate for this I have the 4th MarDiv activated earlier than in cannon and deployed to Iran in place of the 3rd MarDiv.

Targan-
With respect to the Indos invading, now you could see the impossiblity of that happening as the Alaskan Invasion by the Soviets and the Mexican/Soviet/Cuban Invasion of the Southern & Southwestern US. I mean it could happen, but how long would the invading forces last, with such drawn out supply lines.


Stilleto69


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DeaconR


Stilletto: vis a vis the Alaskan invasion, I think people like Targan (if you don't mind speaking for you) and myself really were just supporting a thread which was trying to figure out how it COULD have happened for someone wanting to stick to canon information. I generally agreed with Law and the rest of you on why it was unlikely to have succeeded in a realistically done scenario.


Targan: sorry I knew that really and I apologize for not wording the phrase properly.

Chico: It seems to me that the fuel crisis in a way is a bit overplayed--there seems to be a lot of disagreement with how it is applied in the context of the game.

In any case Matt and Chico thank you for your replies, which make a lot of sense.

Another question: how would area command work? For instance US Forces Japan is not mentioned at all.

A further question: given what you postulate for the situation would it not be likely that this effort could be combined with US forces in the Pacific Northwest as well as Canadian? Is what you are suggesting a general recovery effort on that basis?


DeaconR

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Headquarters

JAPAN and OILPRODUCTION IN ASIA

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Japan is a nation hanging on the edge -or if you will - balancing a very thin line with a brutal drop -resource wise .

The huge population and the limited natural resources ,including farmland,means that any significant econmomical crisis is a potential threat to the stability of Nippon.Even today.(RL)

Should the massive amount of international shipping delivering basic goods such as food,fuel and raw materials become scarcer or -even worse- stop altogether - there is an app. 6 month emergency only supply of food, oil and fuels to maintain the most basic functions of their society.Foodwise a winter of rationed goods would likely be followed by a spring and summer of starvation and massive social upheaval.Any foreign elements on Japanese soil would likely be the target of attacks from organizations outside govermental control - and possibly by the authorities themselves ,trying to secure terms with the PACT ,and or the stores of supplies available on the bases.Japan is a ticking time bomb like that .( They have laws saying that their strategic reserves should not be smaller than a 6 month usage -how effective these are is an open question.)

As for the oil - industry in Asia otherwise- wether nuked or not , a regular oilwell could not be anticipated to hold up well to one or several years of no maintenance or even intentional abuse .The complications involved on the technical side both in running refinery services and drilling already located wells would be major obstacles in a recovery process.(Even relatively stabile 3.d world countries TODAY need international asistance to get their oil operations up and running).Finding the personell,equipment,spareparts and knowhow to run oilrigs in a Twilight setting would be very difficult - but not impossible on a smaller scale.
Finding oilwells not already drilled is pretty much out of the question -surveying equipment needed is really advanced stuff ...( na/na)..In any case -gathering the resources needed would be a lengthy process,and extremely difficult in a society where half the poulation is dead from nuclear fallout,deseases,violence etc.

As for an Indonesian invasion of North Australia or Papua New Guinea -I recommend the book "GREEN ARMOUR" by Omar White , an Australian war correspondent who saw WWII up close in those parts.Even the Imperial Japanese army could not efficiently penetrate the mountainous jungles of the island-it seems in his opinion that the Japanese lost their chance of victory when they opted to proceed cautiously over Papua New Guinea ,instead of making an "all in " attack and amphibious landing on the north coast of Australia.
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Headquarters

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ReHerakhte

In terms of the US invasion by Soviet, Cuban and Mexican forces, although unlikely and even less likely than that to succeed, I believe it was felt necessary by the game designers for a few reasons: -
1. After the PCs leave Europe, having survived the Third World War and crossing the Altlantic in another epic adventure, the GM needs to have challenges similar to those they faced in Europe for the PCs once they get home. Otherwise it's going to be a repeatitive game of guard the food supplies from black marketeers... AGAIN... Pull convoy escort to stop rioting civvies from stealing food supplies from the military... AGAIN... and so on.
2. The GM needs to have an enemy that the PC group will want to fight against. The Soviets are an obvious choice. Otherwise their only enemies would be fellow Americans and after a while, killing your own countrymen is going to seem a bit "self-defeating".

I bring this up because although Indonesia has had long term plans for incorporating parts of Australia into a greater Indon empire, they have had the same designs on Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, the Philippines, the rest of Papua New Guinea and parts of Thailand. That ought to keep them busy for a while...
The Indons would pay heavily for an attack on Australia but they have snuck forces onto the mainland in the past and they would probably rely on this sort of thing to land guerrilla forces to harass the populace - which would make for an interesting game in itself.
Irrespective of how likely they would be to succeed in the real world, stuff like that, just like the invasion of North America, gives the GM more adventures to feed the Players and in the end, that's the whole point.

As an aside, it has been common knowledge in Australia that the naval bases in Perth and Sydney would most likely be on the nuke hit list (which meant if the balloon went up in the 1980s, I probably could have been toasted because I lived in both cities during the 80s) along with the former USN communications station "Harold E. Holt" in the north-west of Western Australia, Pine Gap communications station "somewhere" in the centre of the Northern Territory and the Royal Australian Corp of Signals base in Watsonia in Melbourne (which handled all the encoded comms traffic for Aussie Army forces - and if the balloon had gone up in the early 70s, I would have definately been toastie warm because my father was the head cryptography custodian there for a number of years and we lived less than 2 klicks from the base).
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It's not whether you win or lose...

It's whether I win.

ReHerakhte

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Cpl. Kalkwarf

LOL when i first was glancing at the list of subjects I thought this one was Asian Babes. Guess you figure what was on my mine. :P

well at least we wernt infiltrated by a spammer.

Any way even though its not asian related. Oil reserves. In the 80s a bunch of wells in central and western nebraska were capped. and the owners were payed not to open them. im sure this has happened elsewhere. most likely because they were not realy producing cost effective amounts for modern consumption. but perhaps for a post apocolyptic war economy it might be worth it agin. Also there was a small refinery near Cheyenne Wyoming and to the East of it a nuclear power plant that i dont remeber being a target for nuclear hits in the one soarce book.

I think the states of nebraska, kansas, south dakota and wyoming would become an economic power house for grains and oil. As far as the weather effecting crops, yeh probably. it would just lessen porduction and not wipe out totally. You would still have allot fo growing area near the rivers. I could see at first subsistance farming the start out situation. But in a couple of years as things start to stabilize you would see posssible cooperations and surpluss crops.. Oh and i almost forgot....it seems like every other town in nebraska at least seems to have an ethenol plant where if not ethenol then lots of methenol could be produced.

dang i kinda got off topic didnt i?!


Cpl. Kalkwarf

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Law0369

Hey all questions will be anwsered this fall when the navy and marine guide comes out and jason and flamingo get there books out ...just wait my friends. trust me the navy and marines are unfucked and it took us a long time.
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Law0369


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Headquarters

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cpl. Kalkwarf
Oil reserves. In the 80s a bunch of wells in central and western nebraska were capped. and the owners were payed not to open them. im sure this has happened elsewhere. most likely because they were not realy producing cost effective amounts for modern consumption. but perhaps for a post apocolyptic war economy it might be worth it agin. Also there was a small refinery near Cheyenne Wyoming and to the East of it a nuclear power plant that i dont remeber being a target for nuclear hits in the one soarce book.

I think the states of nebraska, kansas, south dakota and wyoming would become an economic power house for grains and oil. As far as the weather effecting crops, yeh probably. it would just lessen porduction and not wipe out totally. You would still have allot fo growing area near the rivers. I could see at first subsistance farming the start out situation. But in a couple of years as things start to stabilize you would see posssible cooperations and surpluss crops.. Oh and i almost forgot....it seems like every other town in nebraska at least seems to have an ethenol plant where if not ethenol then lots of methenol could be produced.

I am agreeing with you there , the further out from the center of events ( nuclear blasts,coneventional war,fall out,city populations rioting etc) to more likely to recover or at least partially recover than highly important industrial and economical areas as of today. A nations with low tech industry and few obvious nuclear targets - i.e. third world countires- would have an advantage
over us western style democracy industrial countries.
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pmulcahy

HQ, there's actually a mini-module someone did in the old Challenge magazine (can't remember which one offhand) about just such a scenario -- reopening a capped oil well -- though it took place in Pennsylvania. So it's very plausible that sort of thing would be happening, probably anywhere there even might be some oil left to pull out of the ground.

As far as the original topic, the place whose fate I've always wondered about in T2K was Diego Garcia. My guesses are 1) It was abandoned once enough aircraft were shot down, enough fuel was destroyed or used up, and enough ships were sunk to make the place superfluous, or 2) It was nuked by the Russians early on, or 3) There is a small group of hardy souls still hanging on there, doing the best they can with what they have, and trying to figure out how to get the hell out of Dodge.


pmulcahy

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Targan

That module was called "Pennsylvania Crude" and it has some rules for reopening capped oil wells, how to collect the oil, how much you can expect to collect and how you can scoop heavy diesel off the top of drums of crude once it has been left to setle awhile i.e. you don't need a cat cracker to make heavy diesel, but it is laden with impurities).
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Targan

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TrailerParkJawa

I think Hong Kong would be in bad shape. If it wasn't nuked, its a crowded city just like NY and the populace has no hope of feeding itself. Although it might represent a good source of salvage.

2300AD states that the US and Australia have a strong bond that helped them settle their own arm of space. I wonder if that bond starts as early as the recovery period. Perhaps Australians trading with Californians?

I dunno, is it easier to travel by ship from Australia to California or the East Coast of the US? I suppose it depends where you are in Australia? Isn't most of the population in Australia on the eastern side of the country?


TrailerParkJawa


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Targan

How the hell would you travel from Australia to the east coast of the US? Around Cape Horn? Tough journey that one. The Pacific Ocean is very big, but if the Polynesians could cover all of it with sail driven catamarans and navigating with only a half a coconut with a slot cut into it, I'd say California could trade with Queensland and New South Wales. You are correct BTW TrailerParkJawa, the vast majority of Australia's population lives on the NE, east and SE coasts. Where I am, Perth in Western Australia, is the only really major population centre on this side of the continent. We have a decent sized air base and naval base around these parts though, which are strategically important.
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Targan


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TrailerParkJawa

I was thinking that you could go around the Cape or through the Suez but I can't remember if that is open or closed in T2K.

Thanks for the input, I'm trying to think of what Australians and Californians could trade in an the years after TDM. If Mexico controls the American desert southwest (or it simply lies abandon) mabye Australia could supply California with a source of uranium. I'm not sure what we'd give you in return though.


TrailerParkJawa


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Targan

If California was supplying the ships and crews to make the voyage to Australia, and maybe even could assist with mining the yellowcake, they wouldn't necessarily have to give Australia anything initially in return for uranium. Australia wouldn't be able to provide actual processed uranium because we don't process it here (God only knows why). It's a strange situation, the first ever nukes were powered by Australian uranium, but after the Blue Streak fiasco Australia gave up on ever having nukes. Wierd. I am pretty sure the Indonesians would have backed off from taking over West Papua if Australia had had nukes during the 1970s.

But as I was saying, as Australia has no way of processing yellowcake into uranium, and would have no viable use for uranium even if it did, I'm sure Australia and California could come up with some "lend lease" arrangement of building up future credit in return for yellowcake.
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Targan