Brazil and Argentina

[Mohoender]

A few ideas for the new year.

Brazil

Brazil had been returned to democracy in 1985 but discontent with the civilian government and the development of the Twilight War had opened the way to military rule again.

Consequently, the nuclear program (ran by the navy) was not abandonned and Brazil conducted its first nuclear trial just before the war. When, the nukes started to fall elsewhere in the world, Brazilia already had a few low-yield nuclear weapon that could be delivered by Mirage III.

In addition, the missile program that had led to the first flight of the Sondar IV missile in 1989, had been accelerated and by 1998, it had developped into the Sondar V missile. A vector capable of delivering a small nuclear charge to 2000km. The chaos that existed at the time does not unable us to get precise figures of Brazil capability but the small exchange of 1998 proved that it was real.

Argentina

Unlike Brazil, Argentina remained a democracy as the distrust toward the military was more deeply rooted among the population (a legacy from the flakland war of 1982). However, after Buenos Aeres proposal to create a common nulcear control agency was rejected by Brazil the government of Argentina revived its nuclear program.

The condor 2 missile was made a reality and by 1998, it had already developped into the condor 3 (range of 1500km).

On the other hand, Argentina was not as advanced as Brazil in the development of nuclear waepon. Nevertheless it turned to South Afirca and Israel for technical help and was able to modify part of its civilian nuclear program in order to produce its first nukes.

The Israelians also helped in the modification of a few IAI Nesher and Dassault Super Etendard.


Just some rapid thoughts.

[sglancy12]

I never bought the Argentine-Brazilian nuclear exchange from the ver. 2 timeline. It just seemed like gratuitous nuking due to the authors' lack of understanding of the area, it's history and the capabilities of the combatants.

For me, South America survives the Twilight War without taking too many nuclear hits. How many depends on how much you think NATO and the Warsaw Pact would go out of their way to nuke petroleum refining resources in neutral countries.

With the collapse of the global market for goods and services, South America is going to suffer a massive economic crash combined with massive power crisis. The resulting social chaos will be enough to keep them pre-occupied with their own troubles for years to come. I imagine they'd survive as well as France, only with less fallout. There would be huge influxes of refugees too, particularly from North America.

I'm one of those who thinks that Mexico's oil industry will get nuked and the infrastructure EMPed by USAF because of their invasion of the US southwest, and not before, as in the canon timelines.

I don't think Venezuela will get nuked, but I imagine an alliance between them and Castro's Cuba (which I do think would dodge it's responsibilities as a Soviet ally) to take advantage of the Yanqui Giant's post nuke weakness. Not a Red Dawn invasion, but I imagine them covertly helping the Mexicans (by moving Division Cuba) and generally undermining US allies and territories. Not enough that they get nuked, but just enough to feel like a bunch of macho and self-righteous socialist anti-imperialists.

I've debated whether Argentina would reclaim the Maldives Islands (Falklands, to the rest of us) or just let the place sit and stagnate until they ask Argentina for help, then move in. One possibility for nuking South America might be if Argentina invaded the Falklands again after Britain was nuked in '98. The Brits only force option might be to threaten to nuke them if they don't withdraw. Would the Argentines call their bluff? Would they back down? Would Britain spent a warhead or two to EMP Buenos Aires? Or hit the Argentine Navy?

I've got an incomplete alternative timeline in the works with a Summer 2000 world gazeteer. Here's what I'd written about South America.

South America
The Cocaine Trade: The number one customer of South America’s cocaine trade was the United States, followed closely by Western Europe, Japan and Canada. All four of those economies have been smashed by WWIII. This would normally mean the end of the cocaine trade since it is driven not by supply, but by demand… and while the demand may be there, the Western/Industrialized world can’t afford the cocaine and there are no inter national distribution chains left because there is no transportation infrastructure. So instead the Cocaine cartels in Columbia, Peru and Bolivia will need to scale back and find a new customer base. They will have to sell to the least damaged nations, like France, Sweden, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, and South Africa.
Most of the trade would be concentrated on the countries of South America since that is where they have the most physical access. Sailing ships would be used to transport the cocaine to costal ports around the continent. Most of the continent’s population lives near the coast. Transport to French Guiana would allow sales to criminal groups from Union Frances like the Corsicans who would import it to France and then to any existing markets in Europe. Getting it to Australia, South Africa and New Zealand would be more difficult. Perhaps the Corsicans control the distribution since France controls what little international trade is left in the Atlantic. If there are no other distribution options, the cocaine cartels would be at the mercy of the Corsicans and they, not the Cartels, would be able to set the price.
Cocaine would still be plentiful, unless the Cartels decide to restrict the supply and drive the price up by creating less supply than demand. Unfortunately, that may not be possible with the Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) in Peru. Most cocaine is produced there and being commies, Maoist commies at that, they are not going to get that whole supply-and-demand thing. So more likely the market will be flooded, (unless the Cartels buy and stockpile like DeBeers). So maybe the cheapness of cocaine means that it will become as plentiful as opium in China in the 19th century, further compounding South America’s troubles. In fact, the Cartels could simply reduce the amount of refining and just sell the cheaper Coca paste, which is smoked like crack. In fact, it’s more toxic and more addictive than crack cocaine. Cheap coca paste would be the product shipped overseas to third world markets, like Africa, where the drug is used to control and motivate troops.

Argentine Republic:
Prewar Population: >36,000,000
Prewar Population Density: 14/km2
Prewar per capita income: $14,838
Prewar Literacy: 97.1%
Prewar Demographics: white (mostly Spanish and Italian) 97%, mestizo (mixed white and Amerindian ancestry), Amerindian, or other non-white groups 3%
Prewar Infrastructure: 154 paved airports, 1,227 unpaved airports, 31,902 km rail, 68,809 km paved roads, 160,335 km unpaved roads, major ports.
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land: 10.03%, permanent crops: 0.36%, 15,500 sq km irrigation/ sunflower seeds, lemons, soybeans, grapes, corn, tobacco, peanuts, tea, wheat; livestock
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 52.2%
Hydroelectric: 40.8%
Nuclear: 6.7%
Other: 0.2%
Prewar Energy Reserves: Hyrdoelectric, petroleum, natural gas, uranium
Prewar Resources/Industries: fertile plains of the pampas, lead, zinc, tin, copper, iron ore, manganese/ food processing, motor vehicles, consumer durables, textiles, chemicals and petrochemicals, printing, metallurgy, steel
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
Neutral in WWIII, Argentina found itself the destination of choice for many Europeans fleeing the expected total nuclear exchange that never came. Many rich people transferred their money to Argentinean banks. The military remains fervently anti-communist, and there are still hard feelings towards the UK. Overall, the country has plenty of food, intact industry, natural resources and a large professional military. The government spends its resources trying to keep the country from falling apart and keeping the Brazilians on their side of the border. WWIII saves Argentina from having to go through the Argentine Debt Crisis of 1999-2002, since their creditors are nuked. Hydro and even nuclear power could fill nearly 50% of pre-war needs, so the country could survive with severe energy rationing. Some politicians are considering a military expedition to wrest the oil fields in the Beagle Channel away from Chile, despite the resource sharing agreement in place. Argentina has occupied (with a token force) South Georgia and the Sandwich Islands when the UK abandoned them. With the Falklands cut off, Argentina is waiting for the isolated British community to ask for Argentinean help, whereupon they will annex the islands. They are still worried the Brits might have a nuke stashed away somewhere. Argentina is a near-mythical destination for refugees. Argentina’s biggest threat comes from border disputes with Chile and competition with Brazil over influence in Paraguay and Uruguay. Inexplicably, there are Islamist terrorists active in Argentina and, of course, the usual leftists revolutionary suspects. Their activities make life difficult, but the government is keeping them in check using draconian methods. Some of the tactics of the ‘Dirty War’ are being used, but the public isn’t concerned with civil rights, only civil order.

Republic of Bolivia:
Prewar Population: >8,800,000
Prewar Population Density: 21.8/km2
Prewar per capita income: $2,817
Prewar Literacy: 87.2%
Prewar Demographics: Quechua 30%, mestizo (mixed white and Amerindian ancestry) 30%, Aymara 25%, white 15%
Prewar Infrastructure: 16 paved airports, 1,068 unpaved airports, 3,519 km rail, 4,314 km paved roads, 56,448km unpaved roads, only river ports.
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land: 2.78%, permanent crops: 0.19%, 1,320 sq km irrigation/ soybeans, coffee, coca, cotton, corn, sugarcane, rice, potatoes; timber
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 42.43%
Hydroelectric: 55.75%
Nuclear: 0%
Other: 1.82%
Prewar Energy Reserves: hydropower, some petroleum, huge natural gas reserves.
Prewar Resources/Industries: tin, zinc, tungsten, antimony, silver, iron, lead, gold, timber/ mining, smelting, petroleum, food and beverages, tobacco, handicrafts, clothing
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
Landlocked and mountainous, many regions are ungovernable without air links to unite the mountainous departments of the country. President Hugo Banzer (former dictator 1970-1978) is still in control of the remnants of the pre-war government following his 1997 election. Banzer has placated the leftists by nationalizing foreign owned businesses, especially the natural gas industry. He has placated the Brazilians by splitting the nationalized oil and gas facilities with them. The Brazilians even have “loaned” troops to protect the oil and gas fields and refineries. Argentinean holdings were nationalized, and this has raised tensions, but since the Brazilians are propping up the Banzer government, Argentina won’t risk war. Banzer is continuing a pre-TW coca eradication campaign to forcibly convert land use from cocaine to agriculture. This is pressuring the cartels, but is causing popular support for the government to erode. The loss of the European and North American markets has cost the Cocaine cartels much of their economic power, but large and growing markets still exist in the Southern Cone and Brazil. The only refugees are internal. Banzer has tried to stir nationalism by making noise about reoccupying the Atacama corridor to the pacific, but has taken no action. Some indigenists/leftists are stirring up trouble, complaining about Brazilian domination.

Federative Republic of Brazil:
Prewar Population: >169,000,000
Prewar Population Density: 22/km2
Prewar per capita income: $8,500
Prewar Literacy: 86.4%
Prewar Demographics: white 53.7%, mulatto (mixed white and black) 38.5%, black 6.2%, other (includes Japanese, Arab, Amerindian) 0.9%, unspecified 0.7%
Prewar Infrastructure: 714 paved airports, 3,562 unpaved airports, 29,252 km rail, 94,871 km paved roads, 1,630,058 km unpaved roads, 9 ports.
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land: 6.93%, permanent crops: 0.89%, 29,200 sq km/ coffee, soybeans, wheat, rice, corn, sugarcane, cocoa, citrus; beef
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 8.3%
Hydroelectric: 82.7%
Nuclear: 4.4% (1 plant)
Other: 4.6%
Prewar Energy Reserves: uranium, petroleum, natural gas, hydropower
Prewar Resources/Industries: bauxite, gold, iron ore, manganese, nickel, phosphates, platinum, tin, timber/ textiles, shoes, chemicals, cement, lumber, iron ore, tin, steel, aircraft, motor vehicles and parts, other machinery and equipment
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
Brazil avoids the war, but massive unrest, unemployment, food shortages and economic chaos leaves the country in a perpetual state of emergency. Severe erosion of the rainforest is caused as the poor flee the cities to carve out new farms. There is massive organized crime influence in the cities, mostly from Europe, Asia and Africa. Rural land disputes quickly turn violent. Nevertheless, Brazil maintains huge industrial and military resources (by TW2K standards). Plenty of hydro-electric energy available, but there is a massive shortfall in petroleum and gas. 70% of oil was previously imported. That is why the Brazilians are propping up the Bolivian government, to keep the oil and gas flowing to Brazil. The Brazilians are also exerting influence/pressure on the Paraguayans to safeguard the transit of oil and gas from Bolivia to Brazil. Brazil may be the dominant nation on the continent unless Argentina gets organized first. “Nuclear debt-relief” benefited Brazil too. The biggest security threat to Brazil is that government corruption and massive unequal income distribution could lead to popular revolution. There is a great deal of popular unrest. The situation is akin to Bourbon France before the revolution. Brazilian police and security forces are stretched to their limits suppressing unrest, both political and economical.

Republic of Chile:
Prewar Population: >15,000,000
Prewar Population Density: 21/km2
Prewar per capita income: $11,937
Prewar Literacy: 96.2%
Prewar Demographics: white and white-Amerindian 95%, Amerindian 3%, other 2%
Prewar Infrastructure: 73 paved airports, 290 unpaved airports, 6,585 km rail, 16,080 km paved road, 63,525 km unpaved road, 8 major ports.
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land: 2.62%, permanent crops: 0.43%, 19,000 sq km irrigation/ grapes, apples, pears, onions, wheat, corn, oats, peaches, garlic, asparagus, beans; beef, poultry, wool; fish; timber
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 47%
Hydroelectric: 51.5%
Other: 1.4%
Prewar Energy Reserves: small petroleum, small natural gas, hydropower
Prewar Resources/Industries: copper, timber, iron ore, nitrates, precious metals, molybdenum/ copper, other minerals, foodstuffs, fish processing, iron and steel, wood and wood products, transport equipment, cement, textiles
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
Chile suffered no direct damage from the war, but did absorb a few rich refugees from North America and Europe looking to miss the expected apocalypse. Unequal wealth distribution is 2nd only to Brazil, despite poverty being nearly cut in 1/2 between 1985 and start of the Twilight War. Foreign trade was 39% of Chile’s GDP, so the effects of the Twilight War impoverished a huge percentage of the population. Hydro and coal provide most energy needs, but the majority of country’s petroleum reserves are untapped in Tierra del Fuego. To forestall a conflict with Argentina, the Chileans have agreed to allow Argentina to drill for oil in exchange for refined fuel. Because of this, Chile is falling under Argentinean influence. With Peru turning into a basket case and Bolivia falling under Brazilian influence, Chile has chosen the lesser evil. Another problem is that the well-equipped and professional Chilean military is hamstrung because nearly all their heavy weapons and aircraft are manufactured abroad, while Brazil and Argentina have home-grown arms industries. Chile is also worried about Bolivia starting a suicidal war over access to the Pacific Ocean. Diplomatic relations between the two countries were severed in 1978 and have not been restored.

Republic of Columbia:
Prewar Population: >42,000,000
Prewar Population Density: 40/km2
Prewar per capita income: $7,565
Prewar Literacy: 92.5%
Prewar Demographics: Mestizo 58%, white 20%, mulatto 14%, black 4%, mixed black-Amerindian 3%, Amerindian 1%
Prewar Infrastructure: 101 paved airports, 883 unpaved airports, railways 3,304 km rail, 26,000 km paved roadways, 84,000 km unpaved roadways, 7 ports.
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land: 2.01%, permanent crops: 1.37%, 9,000 sq km irrigation/ coffee, cut flowers, bananas, rice, tobacco, corn, sugarcane, cocoa beans, oilseed, vegetables; forest products; shrimp
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: ?
Hydroelectric: ?
Other: ?
Prewar Energy Reserves: petroleum, natural gas, coal, hydroelectric.
Prewar Resources/Industries: iron ore, nickel, gold, copper, emeralds/ textiles, food processing, oil, clothing and footwear, beverages, chemicals, cement; gold, coal, emeralds.
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
Colombia is submerged in a civil war. There is no central authority. Country is divided between the remnants of the pre-war government, armed revolutionary groups (FARC and ELN), right wing self-defense organizations (AUC), and even local opportunistic warlords. The drug cartels’ power has waned since the collapse of the international distribution network for cocaine. The Medellin and Cali cartels went into decline and now barely control their cities of origin. The North Valley Cartel is now the most powerful cartel in the country and is the AUC’s primary backer. The FARC and ELN are supported by Cuba and Venezuela. Forced conscription into the various factions’ armies (especially of children) is common. The civil war has displaced millions and led to the deaths of millions more due to disruptions the food supply and the collapse of the medical system. Cholera and Typhoid Fever outbreaks are common in urban areas. With no national distribution of power, potable water, medical care or food, Columbia is as battered as Poland, only without the fallout, persistent chemical agents, and large mechanized military forces. This is the war of the pygmies.

Republic of Ecuador:
Prewar Population: >13,000,000
Prewar Population Density: 47/km2
Prewar per capita income: $4,316
Prewar Literacy: 92.5%
Prewar Demographics: mestizo (mixed Amerindian and white) 65%, Amerindian 25%, Spanish and others 7%, black 3%
Prewar Infrastructure: 98 paved airports, 261 unpaved airports, 966 km railways, 7,287 km paved roads, 35,910 km unpaved roads, 5 ports
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land: 5.71%, permanent crops: 4.81%, 8,650 sq km irrigation/ bananas, coffee, cocoa, rice, potatoes, manioc (tapioca), plantains, sugarcane; cattle, sheep, pigs, beef, pork, dairy products; balsa wood; fish, shrimp
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 27.96%
Hydroelectric: 72.04%
Prewar Energy Reserves: petroleum, hydropower
Prewar Resources/Industries: fish, timber/ petroleum, food processing, textiles, wood products, chemicals
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
Ecuador was an economic basket case before the war, nearly ungovernable, with a government that kow-towed to the social and economic elites. The expense of the short Cenepa War with Peru in 1995, led to political instability. No president finished their terms between 1996 and 1998. Following the ’97-’98 nuclear exchange, the Ecuadorian military seized power. In an attempt to solidify their position, and emboldened by the chaotic situation in Peru, Ecuadorian Junta wasted valuable military resources trying to recover the territory Ecuador lost to Peru in 1941. The1998-99 war with Peru gained nothing and crippled the Ecuadorian military. Trapped between the Columbian and Peruvian Civil Wars, Ecuador collapsed into chaos. The country could not absorb all the refugees from the neighboring conflicts, or cope with end of international trade. Refugees become marauders. Large areas of the country loose contact with the capital. Strongmen seize control of local food supplies. Cities become ungovernable as food, energy, water and sewer service breaks down. A second military coup attempt results in the Junta fragmenting into warlords. Ecuador is now more of a concept than a country.

Co-operative Republic of Guyana:
Prewar Population: >751,000
Prewar Population Density: 9.1/km2
Prewar per capita income: $4,612
Prewar Literacy: 98.8%
Prewar Demographics: East Indian 50%, black 36%, Amerindian 7%, white, Chinese, and mixed 7%
Prewar Infrastructure: 9 paved airports, 81 unpaved airports, 187 km rail, 590 km paved roadways, 7,380 unpaved roadways, 1 port.
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land: 2.23%, permanent crops: 0.14%, 1,500 sq km irrigation/ sugarcane, rice, wheat, vegetable oils; beef, pork, poultry, dairy products; fish, shrimp.
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 98.46%
Hydroelectric: 1.54%
Prewar Energy Reserves: None
Prewar Resources/Industries: bauxite, gold, diamonds, hardwood timber, shrimp, fish/ sugar, rice milling, textiles.
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
Prior to the war, Guyana is mostly ungovernable jungle. Untouched by the war, a complete breakdown of civil order nevertheless ensures, spurred on by (inexplicably) an Islamic insurgency. This insurgency in connected to the Trinidad & Tobago Islamic insurgents. They are not connected to Al Queda, but wish they were. Guyana Defense Force has splintered into little more than well-armed gangs. Between 1998-1999, chaos reigns. Any group of a hundred armed men can seize the capital and call themselves the government for a week or two, and several do. Venezuela invades in early 1999, in violation of UN negotiated border treaty. Some 60% of the country occupied by Venezuela west of the Essequibo River. Venezuela has no interest in conquering Guyana, only readjusting their border. 10% of the population is Muslim, but members of a heretical sect that believes that the Koran and prayers can be performed in English.

Republic of Paraguay:
Prewar Population: >6,000,000
Prewar Population Density: 15/km2
Prewar per capita income: $4,555
Prewar Literacy: 94%
Prewar Demographics: mestizo (mixed Spanish and Amerindian) 95%, other 5%
Prewar Infrastructure: 12 paved airports, 869 unpaved airports, 36 km rail, 14,986 km paved roads, 14,514 km unpaved roads, 4 ports.
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land: 7.47%, permanent crops: 0.24%, 670 sq km irrigation/ cotton, sugarcane, soybeans, corn, wheat, tobacco, cassava (tapioca), fruits, vegetables; beef, pork, eggs, milk; timber.
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 0%
Hydroelectric: 99.9%
Other: 0.1%
Prewar Energy Reserves:
Prewar Resources/Industries: hydropower, timber, iron ore, manganese, limestone/ sugar, cement, textiles, beverages, wood products, steel, metallurgic, electric power.
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
Paraguay disintegrated into a civil war following a protracted period of political instability. First there was the 1996 coup attempt, then the 1998 election brought supporters of the 1996 coup plotters to power on a ticket of freeing the coup plotters from prison. The final spark came in 1999, when the pro-coup president was implicated in the murder of his vice-president and is forced to flee to Brazil. The Colorado Party splits into pro- and anti-coup factions, other political parties take up arms and the military fragments. Food supplies are good, which means the civil war factions are well supplied and can concentrate of killing each other. Ausuncion has been turned into a battleground, driving most of the population into the countryside. The Brazilian army intervened to seize control the Itaipu dam when the political instability threatened to cut off the electricity. Anarchy in Bolivia has spawned bandits who are crossing into northern Paraguay. Fortunately the Gran Chaco region is essentially unpopulated, so there is little damage the bandits can do there. Argentina has been denied the energy from the Itaipu dam and the conflict with Brazil has brought tensions to the brink of war.

Peru:
Prewar Population: >27,000,000
Prewar Population Density: 22/km2
Prewar per capita income: $5,900
Prewar Literacy: 87.7%
Prewar Demographics: Amerindian 45%, mestizo (mixed Amerindian and white) 37%, white 15%, black, Japanese, Chinese, and other 3%
Prewar Infrastructure: 54 paved airports, 214 unpaved airports, 3,462 km rail, 10,314 km paved road, 68,358 km unpaved road, 3 Amazon ports, 2 pacific port.
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land: 2.88%, permanent crops: 0.47%, irrigation 12,000 sq. km/ coffee, cotton, sugarcane, rice, potatoes, corn, plantains, grapes, oranges, coca; poultry, beef, dairy products; fish.
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 24.53%
Hydroelectric: 74.79%
Other: 0.68%
Prewar Energy Reserves: petroleum, hydropower, natural gas.
Prewar Resources/Industries: copper, silver, gold, petroleum, timber, fish, iron ore, coal, phosphate, potash, mining and refining of minerals, steel, metal fabrication; fishing and fish processing, textiles, clothing, food processing.
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
Peru was dominated through the 1990s by the near-totalitarian Presidency of Alberto Fujimori and his security chief Vladamiro Montesinos. After decades of armed struggle, the Tupac Amaru and Sendero Luminoso guerillas were on the ropes. Then came the economic crisis following the collapse of international trade and the crippling of the industrialized northern hemisphere. The economic crisis leads to widespread public discontentment and a catastrophic rise in the crime rate. In 1998, Ecuador tries to reclaim the territory lost to Ecuador in 1941, and the year-long border war to expel the Ecuadorians wastes irreplaceable military resources. Political opposition grows from the discontent over the war and the economy, and is ruthlessly suppressed by the government. This only increased the public outrage. Then President Fujimori announced on 12/28/99 that there would be no election in 2000 due to the global emergency. This resulted in a near-total repudiation of the Lima government and a widespread rebellion. The Sendero Luminoso has even made a comeback as large parts of the civilian population are radicalized by Fujimori’s attempts to retain power. The Tupac Amaru guerillas also recover militarily and pose a real threat to the Peruvian Army, which is suffering from massive rates of desertion. As the new century dawns, Peru is rocking on the edge of a precipice as Fujimori clings desperately to power. With nowhere to flee to, Fujimori may end up taking the ship of state down with him.

Surinam:
Prewar Population: >480,000
Prewar Population Density: 2.7/km2
Prewar per capita income: $5,600
Prewar Literacy: 88%
Prewar Demographics: Hindustani 37%, Creole (mixed white and black) 31%, Javanese 15%, "Maroons" (African slaves who escaped to the interior) 10%, Amerindian 2%, Chinese 2%, white 1%, other 2%
Prewar Infrastructure:
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land: 0.36%, permanent crops: 0.06%, irrigation 510 sq. km/ paddy rice, bananas, palm kernels, coconuts, plantains, peanuts; beef, chickens; shrimp; forest products
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 24.65%
Hydroelectric: 75.35%
Prewar Energy Reserves: hydropower, petroleum
Prewar Resources/Industries: timber, fish, kaolin, shrimp, bauxite, gold, and small amounts of nickel, copper, platinum, iron ore/bauxite and gold mining, alumina production; lumbering, food processing, fishing
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
Surinam began to unravel as soon as the system of international trade was disrupted by the war. Food supplies were jeopardized, but efforts to switch away from cash crops cushioned the blow significantly. Surinam suffered from an influx of refugees from the Netherlands, particularly Dutch citizens of Surinamese descent who wished to avoid the draft. Many Muslims from Indonesia immigrated as well to join the Javanese community that already lived in Surinam (20% of the population was Muslim). They brought radical Islamist ideology with them. Government reaction to the illegal immigration helped radicalized the domestic Muslim population. Following the 1997-1998 nuclear exchange newly arrived Islamist clerics preached revolution and the ascendancy of the Uma (world community of Islam) in the wake of the mutual destruction of the Christians and the Communists. The ensuing civil disorder and civil war caught the national government unprepared. The capital was nearly destroyed by the fighting. Today, there is no government worth speaking of. Society has broken down into independent enclaves, towns and villages, each looking out for their own interests. The Islamists, through the brutal application of Shria law, have kept good order in their areas and have even drawn converts as the impoverished and hungry trade liberty for security. French troops from French Guiana routinely patrol inside Surinam to keep an eye on the power vacuum.

Uruguay:
Prewar Population: >3,399,237
Prewar Population Density: 19/km2
Prewar per capita income: $9,900
Prewar Literacy: 98%
Prewar Demographics: white 88%, mestizo 8%, black 4%, Amerindian (practically nonexistent).
Prewar Infrastructure: 8 paved airports, 56 unpaved airports, 2,073km rail, 7,743 km paved road, 69,989 km unpaved road, 5 ports.
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land: 7.77%, permanent crops: 0.24%, 2,100 sq km irrigation/ rice, wheat, corn, barley; livestock; fish
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 3.91%
Hydroelectric: 95.62%
Other: 0.47%
Prewar Energy Reserves: hydropower
Prewar Resources/Industries: arable land, hydropower, minor minerals, fisheries/ food processing, electrical machinery, transportation equipment, petroleum products, textiles, chemicals, beverages
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
The Uruguayan government is still intact, more or less. It is very closely politically and economically allied with Argentina in order to deter Brazilian intervention. Brazilian refugees have flooded over the border to Uruguay where conditions are better, but the refugees are putting a great deal of stress on local resources. Uruguay was also the final destination for thousands of European and North American refugees who fled the expected nuclear holocaust. There is a large ex-patriot community from around the world living in the capital Montevideo. There is little in the way of industry or economy besides livestock and agriculture, although efforts are being made by the government to use the ex-pat community to develop local industry to help preserve the national infrastructure. The population is being fed, and hydro provides 90% of pre-war power, but petroleum is non-existent, which is the main problem with food distribution. The biggest problem is urban crime in Montevideo, where more than 1/2 the population resides.

Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela:
Prewar Population: >23,054,000
Prewar Population Density: 29/km2
Prewar per capita income: $6,186
Prewar Literacy: 93.4%
Prewar Demographics: 60% mestizo, 29% white, 8% African, 1% Amerindian, 2% asian.
Prewar Infrastructure: 129 paved airports, 246 unpaved airports, 682 km rail, 32,308 km paved roads, 63,847 km unpaved roads, 5 ports.
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land: 2.85%, permanent crops: 0.88%, 5,750 sq km irrigation/ corn, sorghum, sugarcane, rice, bananas, vegetables, coffee; beef, pork, milk, eggs; fish.
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 25.46%
Hydroelectric: 74.54%
Prewar Energy Reserves: petroleum, natural gas, hydropower
Prewar Resources/Industries: iron ore, gold, bauxite, other minerals, diamonds/ petroleum, construction materials, food processing, textiles; iron ore mining, steel, aluminum; motor vehicle assembly.
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
Venezuela was weathering the storm of the Twilight war fairly well, then Hugo Chavez is elected president in 1998 on a pro-Cuba/anti-American platform. Standing up to America is easy since the Yankees were nuked. Chavez forged an alliance with Castro’s Cuba, and now Venezuelan oil fields are providing petroleum to Cuba’s armed forces, especially what remains of its navy. Meanwhile Cuban troops have been used by Venezuela to maintain order in Venezuela and to intervene across Central America and the Caribbean. The Venezuelan army goes on to settle the Guyanan border dispute with an invasion as “peacekeepers.” Chavez openly supports FARC and ELN, Columbia’s largest rebel groups, which has lead to a total disintegration of Columbian government. Chavez even provided covert aid in the evacuation of the Soviet Division Cuba to Mexico, and encouraged Mexico’s war with the United States, which led to the Mexican Civil War. The Cuban-Venezuelan Alliance has the potential to do a great deal more harm throughout the region before it exhausts its resources.

Dependencies in the Region
Falkland Islands: (UK)
Prewar Population: 3,060
Prewar Population Density: 0.25/km2
Prewar per capita income: $25,000
Prewar Literacy: 100%
Prewar Demographics: UK citizens, almost all of northern UK extraction.
Prewar Infrastructure: 2 paved runways, 4 unpaved runways, 1 port Stanley, 50 km paved roads, 440 km unpaved roads
Prewar Land Use/Crops: 99% permanent pastures, 1% other
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 100%
Prewar Energy Reserves: Offshore oil, but no exploitable reserves discovered
Prewar Resources/Industries: Fishing, wool processing, dairy products
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
Argentina has not attempted to annex the islands because they are unsure of whether the UK really has SLBMs still in operation. The UK made it quite clear that any Argentine aggression would result in a “full strategic response.” Nevertheless, the Falklands are under diplomatic pressure to ask Argentina for “protection.” Argentines have cut all air links to the islands in an attempt to raise the level of local misery and make the locals ask for Argentine protection. So far the locals have refused to capitulate.

French Guiana: (FR)
Prewar Population: 157,213
Prewar Population Density: 2.5km2
Prewar per capita income: ???
Prewar Literacy: 99%
Prewar Demographics: ???
Prewar Infrastructure: Space launch facility
Prewar Land Use/Crops: arable land 0.13%, permanent crops 0.04%, other 99.83%
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 100% ?
Hydroelectric: (1 dam) ?
Prewar Energy Reserves: petroleum
Prewar Resources/Industries: gold deposits, kaolin, niobium, tantalum, clay /Construction, shrimp processing, forestry products, rum, gold mining
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
French Foreign Legion makes sure the European Space Agency’s launch facility stays safe. Vast areas of the interior as essentially ungoverned. 20-30% unemployment before the Twilight War. The result is that France’s main outpost in the western hemisphere is in dire straits. The population is non-productive, on the edge of starvation, and refugees are pouring in because of rumor that France is bringing in food. The French are desperately trying to keep enough food coming in to prevent riots. Meanwhile the Cubans and Venezuelans are doing their best to undermine the French, spreading rumors that the space launch facility is a veritable “Club Med” filled with food and booze and all the luxuries of the world that was.

South Georgia (UK):
Prewar Population: Less than 20, no permanent inhabitants
Prewar Population Density: 0.005/km2
Prewar per capita income: N/A
Prewar Literacy: 100%
Prewar Demographics: UK citizens
Prewar Infrastructure: None
Prewar Land Use/Crops: other 100%
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 100%
Prewar Energy Reserves: none
Prewar Resources/Industries: Fish/Fishing
Post War Casualties Summer 2000:
Abandoned by UK. All personnel returned to the Falklands. Argentine expeditions have scouted the islands in anticipation of annexing the islands. The Argentines are nervous about seizing the islands for fear that the UK has a nuke stashed somewhere.

South Sandwich Islands (UK):
Prewar Population: no permanent population
Prewar Population Density: N/A
Prewar per capita income: N/A
Prewar Literacy: N/A
Prewar Demographics: N/A
Prewar Infrastructure: N/A
Prewar Land Use/Crops: Other 100%
Prewar Energy Production:
Fossil Fuels: 100%
Prewar Energy Reserves: None
Prewar Resources/Industries: Fish/Fishing
Post War Casualties Summer 2000: 0
Abandoned by UK. All personnel return to Falklands. The Argentines are looking to annex the islands and the same expedition that scouted out south Georgia, have also scouted these islands. Any time, the Argentines may announce the annexation, to test the ability of the UK to resist or even notice.

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by sglancy12

I never bought the Argentine-Brazilian nuclear exchange from the ver. 2 timeline. It just seemed like gratuitous nuking due to the authors' lack of understanding of the area, it's history and the capabilities of the combatants.

For me, South America survives the Twilight War without taking too many nuclear hits. How many depends on how much you think NATO and the Warsaw Pact would go out of their way to nuke petroleum refining resources in neutral countries.

Nice ideas. In fact, I agree with you. Thanks for sharing it.