Semi-OT A silghtly off timeline for T2K

[Mohoender]

I know... last time I said I was posting my last timeline but you know how it is and I was not entirely satisfied with it.

Therefore, I kept working on it from time to times, keeping part of the spirit of T2K but not entirely. I wanted some equipments I couldn't put in the original timeline, I wanted a world which was not as fucked up as that of T2K (GM motivations and nothing to do with any critics on the original game) and I wanted more details on other regions. Here it is for your curiosity and critics. However, it is entirely non-canon and don't intend to be.

[Mohoender]

This year could have marked the beginning of the end for the Soviet Union and the Cold War but History took another turn. For most of the year, the Eastern block had remained controlled by Mikhael Gorbachev who had initiated a number of reforms at both political and economic levels. This had resulted in an increasing freedom of speach under “Glasnost” and revealed numerous disfunctionments (including widespread corruption) that had reduced the people confidence in the regime. Slowly, the lack of popular confidence has led to an increasing opposition within the Warsaw Pact but also within USSR itself. In Poland Solidarnosç becomes increasingly influencial while, on March 25, the candle demonstration, in Bratislava, is the first mass demonstration against a communist regime. At home, contestation is initiated by Estonia where 300.000 people demonstrate for independence on September 11. This is followed by the adoption of the Estonian Sovereignty Declaration on November 16. Soviet leadership basically let do while, meanwhile, Soviet troops withdraw from Afghanistan. In May, Gorbachev was still granted support when the Law on Cooperatives is adopted (permitting private ownership of businesses in the services, manufacturing, and foreign-trade sectors) but things started to change in June. At that time, during the CPSU's Nineteenth Party Conference, Gorbachev had launched radical reforms meant to reduce party control of the government apparatus and these lead to his first failure on October 1. On that day, Andrey Gromyko resigns from his position as chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of USSR and, to most surprise, is succeeded by Yegor Ligachev (Ligachev who had been a protege of Gorbachev had become his challenger). Still, Gorbachev remains powerful and in power until December 1 when the Supreme Soviet rejects its proposal to establish a Congress of People's Deputies. On the next day a majority votes to dismiss him and he is put under house arrest in his Dacha on the Black Sea. Three days later, in a widely broadcasted speech, he declares that he goes into retirement. Anatoly Lukyanov succeeds him as the 7th General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Concerns are expressed throughout the Western World while officials protests among most states in the Warsaw Pact.

In western Europe, the year is almost uneventful except for a series of attacks in Northern Ireland, culminating in the Milltown Cemetery Attack where Ulster Defence Association (UDA) member Michael Stone attacks the crowd with grenades and pistols, killing three and wounding over sixty (because they were likely to be Catholic). Except this, the only thing to note resides in the founding of Nazi document implicating Kurt Waldheim (Then, Austrian President) in World War II deportations.

US, however, is facing limited turmoil because of the Iran-Contra Scandal. Then, on January 25, U.S. Vice President George H.W. Bush and CBS News anchor Dan Rather clash over Bush's role in this during a contentious television interview. Nevertheless, this affair ends when Lieutenant Colonel Oliver North and Vice Admiral John Poindexter are indicted on charges of conspiracy to defraud the United States. Despite, the possible implication, that doesn’t slow Bush’s rise to the presidency and, on November 8, George H. W. Bush is elected over Michael Dukakis.

More events are taking place in the Middle East where Palestinians increasingly attempt to move troward the establishment of a sovereign state. On January 15, Palestinian protesters clash with Israeli police in Jerusalem. Then, on April 16, Israeli commandos kill the PLO's leader Abu Jihad in Tunisia but this doesn’t prevent the Palestinian Declaration of Independence approval by the Palestinian National Council (PNC) in Algiers on November 15, 1988, by a vote of 253 in favour 46 against and 10 abstentions. The region is also the theater of naval clash between the US Navy and the Iranian fleet. After damaged being sustained by the destroyer Samuel B. Roberts, a naval operation is launched by the US Navy, ending in the destruction of several Iranian ships. This occured only a few weeks before the end on the Iraq-Iran war on August 20.

In Africa, the Soviets had initiated several move toward disengagement as in Angola and Ethiopia. As a result, the government they previously supported are facing increasing difficulties in their military struggles as well illustrated in Ethiopia. There, on March 20, the EPLF enters the town of Afabet, victoriously concluding the Battle of Afabet.

In Asia, several political crisis are plaguing the different regime as it is the case in Myanmar, Malaysia and South Korea. This brought up several major political changes. Finally, in Latin America, a major political change is also initiated when Chilean president Augusto Pinochet is defeated in a national plebiscite which sought to renew his mandate.

[Mohoender]

All around the Warsaw Pact, the political change initiated in the Soviet Union doesn’t go with no consequences. In a speech given on January 1, Anatoly Lukyanov announces the end of Glasnost and a deep revision of Perestroika. Within the weeks following that declaration, KGB conducts numerous arrests of opponents all over Soviet Union and several medias are closed down. Moreover, KGB troops are taking position in several cities conducting thorrow controls over the population. When it comes to Perestroika, Lukyanov makes a second speech in March where he announces the modifications that are to take place. Perestroika is now to become what it should have been from the beginning: a deep economic reform. As a result, the Law on Cooperatives is confirmed and expended. Private property is to be allowed in agriculture, more emphasize will be placed on light industry and foreign investment will be facilitated. Price control, however, will be maintained but only to a certain level in order to fulfill two goals: giving more freedom of action to Soviet entrepreneurs and avoid a dangerous inflation. At last, military expenditures and policies are to be reviewed. Fleet Admiral Vladimir N. Chernavin declares that the Soviet Union doesn’t intend anymore to compete with the US Navy as this had been a task beyond reasonable reach. He adds that a strong deep water navy remains a necessity but overambitious ship building programs will be cancelled as priority is to be given to a modernization policy starting with a full refit of the four Kiev-class linked to further developments of modern designs. Older ships will be retired to be scrapped with some joining the newly created reserve fleets. It is also annouced that during peace time the strength of the land force will progressively be reduced. Several units will have their equipments put in storage while their personnels will pass to the reserve to be called under arms only in the case of threat. Then, modernization of the Air Force should accelerate as, given the large size of the Soviet Union, it is seen as instrumental in the control of airspace. This will be done by introducing new models but older aircrafts, such as Mig-21, Mig-23 and Su-17, should go through some extensive modernizations. At last, it is stated that the strategic forces will be reduced while discussions over further arms control treaties will continue.

Inside Soviet Union itself, as the new political line appears, growing civil unrest and ethnic strife result in demonstrations and riots. In Nagorno-Karabakh, a conflict had started over in 1988 but by January the Red Army has been ordered to restore order, a move welcomed by most Armenians. In Georgia, on April, MVD troops break up a peaceful demonstration at the government building in Tbilisi. Six Georgians are killed and dozens wounded but the worse has been avoided and negociations start between the communists and a Georgian opposition hotile to central rule. On the other side of the Caspian Sea, communist strongmen are fully put back in power, several thousands demonstrators are arrested and stability is mostly maintained. The situation is more confused in the Baltic Republics where a move toward independence was initiated last year in Estonia. This move continues and, to most surprise, is tolerated by the Supreme Soviet even when similar movements seem to spread to Lithuania. Finally, on August 23 that Latvia catches up when, in order to draw the world's attention to the fate of the Baltic nations, Latvians, Lithuanians and Estonians joined hands in a human chain that stretched 600 kilometres from Tallinn, to Riga, to Vilnius. The human chain is called the Baltic Way and again, unlike what had happened in the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Red Army doesn’t move.

Outside USSR, aid to foreign nations is reduced with the exception of Mongolia, Cuba and Afghanistan. By mid-February, soviet troops had left Afghanistan and Najibullah’s regime remains alone to face the Mujahideen. Nevertheless, despite withdrawal, Moscow grants financial support and the communists government is able to retain power and even regain the initiative.

Meanwhile, all across Warsaw Pact, pro-democracy demonstrations, often peaceful, are held as the communist grip over Eastern Europe loosen. Indeed, the Soviets are concentrating on their domestic problems and let Warsaw Pact members engage in a path toward freedom. Hungary slowly remove border restrictions and the Hungarian Republic is officially declared in October. Poland legalize Solidarnosç and, on August 19, president Wojciech Jaruzelski nominates Solidarity activist Tadeusz Mazowiecki to be Prime Minister. Czechoslovakian velvet revolution results in the fall of communist rule on December 29 while Bulgaria moves away from hardline communism. Romania is stroke by a full fledge revolution that starts in Timisoara and ends with the execution of Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife Elena on December 25. Then, the most striking blow came from East Germany, on October 16, at Leipzig where 120,000 had shown up. Military units that had been held on stand-by in the vicinity refuse to battle the demonstrators protesting the regime. Lukyanov refuses to let Soviet troops become engaged, and so, the entire single party system in East Germany collapses. The Berlin Wall becomes history on November 9. In the meantime, almost all over Eastern Europe, a number of German ethnic organizations form in response to West Germany's policy of accepting as a German citizen anyone who can prove themselves of Germanic descent (it is rumored that membership in ethnic clubs is good enough). Outside the Warsaw Pact, communist rule survives but it is greatly weakened as in Yugoslavia and Albania.

Elsewhere, the situation varies and a number of events occurs. However, most are not seen as significant. Iran breaks off diplomatic relations with United Kingdom over Salman Rushdie's The Satanic Verses. Christian General Michel Aoun declares a 'War of Liberation' to rid Lebanon of Syrian forces and their allies. An attempted coup against President Aquino of the Philippines is foiled (with the help of American air cover). In Venezuela, the Caracazo, a popular uprising,occured in february but is crushed by security forces killing up to 3000. The republic of Panama is invaded by the U.S. to remove the government of Manuel Noriega.

Then, a most important event takes place in China, on June 4, when the political reform movement is brutally crushed by government military forces at Tien An Men. As this becomes a symbol, Deng Xiaoping retires from public view and power is slowly passed onto a third generation of leadership led by Jiang Zemin. Nevertheless, China is again isolated as the Western countries treats it as an international pariah and issue a number of foreign trade embargo. Hardliners had taken over the government and begin reigning in free enterprise, also attempting to revive Maoist propaganda and ideological campaigns. However, the public largely treates this with apathy and, in practice, the changes of the last decade made it impossible to ever truly return to the ways of Mao's time. Despite retreating into its shell, China's government continues to state that it welcomes foreign business and investment but economy slows down as Beijing now has little partner to deal with. The situation favors USSR own opening policy which welcome more foregin business partners over the last six months of the year.

[Mohoender]

The movement toward democracy in the Eastern Bloc continues and the movement initiated outside of Russia still spreads to USSR. In May, the New Armenian Army (NAA) is established and clashes soon brake out with Soviet Internal Security Forces (MVD) troops based in Yerevan. In March, Lithuania had been the first Baltic Republic to declare sovereignty and the Kremlin favors negociations. By June, the Supreme Soviet of USSR officially surrenders national sovereignty to the Baltic Republics while still ruling Lithuania’s declarations of independence to be invalid. Meanwhile, Lukyanov, taking over Gorbachev’s former project, attempts to reassert control over the other republics by negociating a new union treaty that should refound USSR. Largely criticized in the western republics it generates more interests in the East as the New Perestroika is showing its first sign of success with an economic situation improving slightly by February. Moreover, when Chinese Prime-minister Li Peng comes to Moscow in an official visit, on April 1990, he receives a warm welcome. Both Li Peng and Lukyanov agree to meet again next year to finally resolve the various tensions that had plagued their countries relations for a little over two decades.

In Eastern Europe, the movement toward freedom accelerates and the year starts with people storming the Stasi HQ in East Germany. Soon after, the Soviet Union agrees to withdraw all its troops from Czechoslovakia. This movement culminates with the reunification of Germany becoming reality in October. A month later, Germany and Poland reach an agreement over their border dispute and the German-Polish Border Treaty is signed by both countries Foreign Ministers. Officialy, the newly united Germany renounces any territorial claims outside of its post-WWII boundaries, but asserts continued interest in the welfare of ethnic Germans living outside of Germany. Membership in German ethnic organizations in western Poland grows, particularly in Silesia. By the end of the year, following that of Czechoslovakia, soviet troop withdrawals are under way from Germany, Poland and Hungary. This initiates the major reorganization of the Red Army as it is confirmed that many acitive units will be turned into armament storage base.

As this happens, major talks on arms control are conducted between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Two treaties are signed reducing the production of chemical weapons (The Chemical Weapon Accord signed on June 1) and limiting the number of military units in Europe (Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe signed on November 22). This strengthen the political position of Lukyanov and releases part of the tensions that had grown over the past years. Meanwhile, in Western Europe, the only major events take place in UK where the governement faces unrest and violent opposition to the poll tax. This intended tax system is abandonned after the fall of Margret Thatcher which resigns from office in November. Meanwhile, it has to be noted that the IRA had launched an increasing number of attacks toward Britain.

In the Middle-East, the year begins with the Yemen Arab Republic and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen unifying and becoming the Republic of Yemen. Later, Iraq stuns the West by invading Kuwait in August. To most surprise, the Soviet Union joins efforts with the USA as the world rallies behind US leadership in resisting Iraqi aggression. Troops from three dozen countries, including USSR and others still formally members of the Warsaw Pact, pour into Saudi Arabia. Then, while the world is occupied with Iraq, Syria achieves victory over Aoun and takes control of Lebanon.

Elsewhere in the world, a few significant events take place. The Indian withwrawal from Sri Lanka open the gates to a revival of the Civil War and violence increase again. A coalition of opposition parties headed by Violetta Chamorro is defeated by Daniel Ortega's bid for re-election in Nicaragua. Sandinistas are strongly reinforced by this result and the Contras are forced back into insurgency. Finally, In Africa, F.W. de Klerk legalise the ANC and frees Nelson Mandela, starting a process intended to end the Apartheid. Two meetings between the government and the ANC took place and both were successful in laying down the preconditions for negotiations despite the considerable tensions still abounding within the country.

[Mohoender]

In January, the Gulf Coalition begins a stunning aerial offensive against Iraq and follows it up with a blitzkrieg ground war in February which liberates Kuwait and crushes the flower of the Iraqi Army. Although Saddam remains in power, his authority is reduced to the central third of his nation and his military is no longer capable of aggression against neighboring states. With the slow return of prosperity but still in need to strengthen Soviet rule, Lukyanov refuses to order a military intervention to stop the Republic’s drive toward independence. On the Baltic Sea, Soviet forces remain at the borders while Estonia and Latvia join with Lithuania voting for independence in August. There move had been preceded by that of Georgia which declared it as early as April while ethnic and religious violence in the Caucasus escalates. Continuing tensions become particularly heavy between Armenians and Azeris in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Meanwhile, on July 1, the old Warsaw Pact is formally abolished, the last straw for many Moscow hardliners who are now planning to seize power in a move that should take place on August 19.

However, Lukyanov has been informed of the conspiracy and, on August 17, orders KGB General Viktor Karpukhin to conduct several arrests, foiling the coup. Then, three days later, on August 20, the New Union Treaty is signed between the Russian SFSR and 7 Republics (Byelorussian SSR, Kazakh SSR, Azerbaijan SSR, Uzbek SSR, Kyrgyz SSR, Turkmen SSR, and Tajik SSR). It grants more power to the republics and changes the country’s name into “Union of Soviet Sovereign States” while Anatoly Lukyanov pursues his rise to power. On August 22, he is elected chairman of the Supreme Soviet of USSR in place of Ligachev and his first decision is to establish a new government and to appoint Gennady Zyuganov to head the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. A new government is established with Ivan Silayev as Prime Minister: Viktor Karpukhin (KGB), Alexander Rutskoy (Internal Affairs), Ruslan Khasbulatov (Foreign Affairs), General Alexander Lebed (Defense), Konstantin Kobets (Communications), Alexander Tizyakov (Finance), Vladimir Ivashko (Justice) and Vasily Starodubtsev (Agriculture and Food). Despite this obvious success, the governments of Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and the Baltic States (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia) still refuse to join.

Their choice is a serious blow that convinces Lukyanov of the urgent need to pursue a deep structure reorganization. More space launch are performed, allowing for the GLONASS system to become fully operational. More army units are reduced into armament storage bases while their personnels are progressively sent to civilian jobs. However, new equipments continue to be fielded while military programs are confirmed. The KGB undergoes a serious reform intended at making it a more versatile tool. The START I treaty is signed on July 1, pursuing the move toward further detente with the West. On the next day, G.W. Bush and Anatoly Lukyanov make a common speech in which they announce that both countries intend to pursue more talks on arms reduction. They conclude by stating that the Cold War is now over. On that same day, army units are mobilized all over the Soviet Union to take over the transportation of much needed supplies to the cities (food shortages effectively end by late December).

This, however, is not its only action on the international scene and a few more steps are taken toward a Sino-Soviet reconciliation. In May, the Sino-Russian Border Agreement is signed at Beijing, definitely ending border disputes between the two countries. In addition, a limited but real collaboration is established in which USSR ensure China of its support in the development of certain technologies while the PRC agrees to increase exports of consumption goods.

As these changes are taking place in USSR, the dissolution of Yugoslavia accelerates when both Croatia and Slovenia secede in June, followed in short order by Macedonia. Except in that last province, violence soon brakes out between the Serbian dominated federal government and militias of the breakaway states. After the Ten-day War, peace is restored in Slovenia while fightings continue over Croatia. By the end of 1991, most of Croatia is gravely affected by war and it is facing increasing difficulties when it appears that Moscow doesn’t respect the UN embargo and sends large amounts of military supplies through Beograd.

In the West, relief had been expressed when the Warsaw Pact dissolved and when the Cold War was declared over. However, concerns are again expressed when further proofs of the Soviet implication in Yugoslavia are released. Still some countries already reduced military spending as early as 1988 and the movement toward peace continues. More military units are disolved and older equipments are effectively taken out of service. Weapon development is slowing down and equipements that could have gone into production are now cancelled or delayed.

[Mohoender]

With the change in Moscow, history in Eastern Europe takes a slightly different path. Elections in Albania effectively brings a pro-western government to power but these held in Bulgaria confirms the Communists to office. Then, on May 7, Bulgarian leaders meet with representatives from the “Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics” at Tashkent and establish the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). It comes into existense in the mist of the Crimean Crisis that started on May 5 when Crimea, declaring independence from Ukraine, asked for support. On May 9, Moscow answer the call and Russian units move across the Kerch Strait. Ten days later, on May 19, Crimea joins the U.S.S.R. Ukraine, faced with a growing economic crisis (resulting from loose monetary policies) and with its army in the middle of a deep reorganization, is unable to take any real action. A month later, when the South Ossetia War ends and as the War in Abkhazia begins Moscow pushes its advantage again and recognizes the independence of these two regions. Before years end, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are merged with USSR again..

Following these events, President Lukyanov declares publicly that the USSR refuses to assume any longer the former Soviet debt, stating that it grew as a result of the insane policy conducted by Gorbachev. This decision slightly hampers Lukyanov’s efforts but, after two years of recession, Russian industrial output and GDP slowly improve again allowing for the Kremlin to expend the aid it grants to foreign powers, further tipping the balance in various areas. Najibullah’s regime of Afghanistan finally inflicts a number of decisive defeats to the Mujahideen and regain control over a majority of the country. Mongolia experiences a fast recovery under the communist party and, before year’s end, Ulan Bator is a member of the CSTO. The Sandinistas of Nicaragua are now pushing their advantage toward an increasingly weakened Contras which has lost all US support. Cuba accelerate its forces modernization. In Venezuela, the February 1992 coup, led by Hugo Chávez, overthrows President Carlos Andrés Pérez. Military units seize a number of large cities (Valencia, Maracaibo and Maracay) while other troops take position in Caracas and intercept Pérez as the President is returning from an overseas trip. Pérez is taken into custody and Chavez broadcast a tape calling for general uprising. Following it, everywhere in the country, crowds demonstrate in favor of the coup and, in a matter of 24 hours, most of the army rally behind the Putchists. In March, Hugo Chavez is elected President with a large majority but, implementing a policy inspired by socialism, he is soon pointed out as a threat to democracy by US officials. Quickly, the new regime places hope into USSR for political and military support.

In the Balkan region, Bosnia demands that Yugoslavian federal troops withdraw from the province, a request which the Serbian-dominated central government refuses. In addition, minor, non violent, incidents take place in southern Albania between the Greek population, Albanians and Albanian authorities. Toward mid-year, the Serbs are besieging Sarajevo and what is known as the Yugoslavian War enters a new stage. Soon after, the UN gets involved in Bosnia-Herzegovina when the security council approves Resolution 743 to send a UNPROFOR peacekeeping force to Yugoslavia. However, later in the year, USSR refuses an extension of this force mandate.

As these new tensions rise, the Politburo generates more efforts to bring the Soviet Naval Forces to their planned strength. Work on the “Varyag” has ceased and two Slava-class cruisers remain the last capital ships under construction. Neverhteless, the four Kiev-class Carrier-cruisers are transferred to the Sevmash shipyard in Severodvinsk (Arkhangelsk Oblast) where they should be refitted. Still more Sovremennyy-class and Udaloy-class destroyers are laid down while designs of new frigates are coming out of the drawing boards. Discussions also begin on a new START treaty that is aimed at banning the use of MIRV and the historic agreement is reached on June 17 with the singing of a “Joint Agreement” by Bush and Lukyanov.

In Western Europe, the Maastricht treaty is signed, founding the European Union. Then, by mid-year, Slovakian separatists have gained enough seats in parliamentary elections to force the division of the country into two sovereign states: Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Meanwhile, ETA in Spain and IRA in Northern Ireland, adopt a more radical path and the number of attacks increase. In Italy, investigations are carried out on Democrazia Cristiana and uncover endemic corruption practices at the highest level. This is starting a series of scandals that quickly undermine the Italian leading party. Meanwhile, in the Middle-East the situation remain tense as Iraq continues to deny access to the UN inspection teams to several of its military complexes. In addition, the Kurds are becoming increasingly active in both Iraq and Turkey, their guerrillas often seeking sanctuary in the UN protected northern third of Iraq when needed.

As it occurs, in the United States, G.W. Bush looses the presidential elections to Bill Clinton. The situation has evolved, the economy is in a recession and Bush's perceived greatest strength, foreign policy, is regarded as much less important following the signing of the various arms control treaties, the continuing commercial opening of the Soviet Union and the defeat of Iraq in the Gulf War. Nevertheless, before the end of his mandate, George H.W. Bush achieves further successes by signing the START II treaty with Lukyanov on January 3, 1993 while getting the UN security council to approve resolution 794 concerning Somalia. As a result, UN peacekeapers led by the US form the UNITAF and, on december 4, US military forces land in Somalia.

[Mohoender]

In his inaugural address, President Clinton declares that "Our democracy must be not only the envy of the world but the engine of our own renewal. There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right with America." Then, shortly after taking office, the U.S. president turns most of its attention toward internal matters. Changes are made to the US health care policy, gay rights are improved and a strong support is given to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) in order to have it ratified by congress. Talks with Russia are now favored over threat, military expenditures are further reduced but policies in the West varies.

The increase in financial support by Moscow to several countries, the warming of Sino-Soviet relations, the faster modernization of Red Military Forces and intervention in Crimea have raised worries among US allies. France still cancels several military programs but maintains the level of its military expenditures over 3% of its GDP. In UK or Sweden equipments that were to be scrapped are put in storage instead. In Germany as most former GDR units are disbanded to comply with treaty obligations refiting programs are designed to be applied to equipments inherited from East Germany. However, Italy is still shaken by political scandals and instability.

In the meantime, the neo-communist government of U.S.S.R. is increasingly successful and GDP keeps growing despite the fact that prices on food, raw materials and foreign vehicles remain strictly under State control. In agriculture, private ownership increases faster and a Soviet industry, in the process of switching to a production of consummer goods, proves unable to properly supply it in mechanized equipments. Then, horse breeding is boosted and more farms rely on horses for local transport and field works. In the military, more units are disbanded but several programs get more funding than expected (T-90, BTR-90) and modernizations already starts on a fairly large scale (T-80U are modified to T-80UD). As planned, the air force gets more than its share with many new aircrafts being fielded: Su-30, Su-34, Yak-141, Yak-44, Ka-52. Meanwhile, people are allowed to move freely within Soviet borders while corruption drops (after thorrow KGB investigations).

On the other hand, tensions continue with Ukraine which still refuses to recognize the Crimean independence but no aggressive action is taken. The economic crisis still weakens Kiev and the country holds the world record for inflation in one calendar year. This terrible situation even pushes Ukraine to accept a major commercial deal with the Soviet Union. Work is resumed on the second Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier that should be delivered to the Soviet Navy by the end of 1996 in exchange for a several ships to be transfered to the Ukrainian Navy.

Fighting continues in the former republics of Yugoslavia and becomes increasingly bitter. There is now no talk of reunifying the country; instead ethnic groups fight biterly for as large a slice of territory as possible. Local militia deal ruthlessly with the people of other ethnic groups living in their regions and massacres are numerous from all sides. In February, UN security council issues resolution 808 deciding that “an international tribunal shall be established” to prosecutes violations of international law in Yugoslavia. In April, it adopts resolution 816 that calls for the establishment of a no-fly zone over Bosnia-Herzegovina and, by mid-month, CSTO and NATO commence “Operation Deny Flight” to enforce it.

Outside Europe several events are also marking this year, bringing some fears. Concerns are expressed toward Iraq and North Korea. The first is hit several time by tomahawks: in January, when it deploys troops near Kuwait and, in June, after an alleged assassination attempt on former US president George Bush. The second benefits from an increasing support from Moscow and, toward mid-summer, Pyongyang withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. In China, Jiang Zemin, the new PRC President, accelerates the technical and military collaboration with USSR but also engages more economical reforms and the path toward market economy accelerates.again. Elsewhere, in September, PLO leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin shake hands in Washington D.C., after signing a peace accord. As the situation appears to worsen everywhere, the world can dream of an issue to the conflict in that part of the world.

Another continent seems to experience important changes: Africa. After a referendum, held in April, Eritrea gains independence from Ethiopia and power is assumed by the People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), a marxist political party. Fearful of US intervention, Eritrea quickly turns toward USSR for help and support, opening again the harbor facilities at Masawa to Soviet shipping. Fighting resume in Angola between UNITA and governmental forces (MPLA) but it takes a very different direction as the now democratic government is supported by the West. Jonas Sawimbi, leader of UNITA, faces difficulties as he is cut from his former support but, true to his word ( "I am not communist because it serves no purpose. Nor am I a capitalist. Socialism in this country is the only answer.”), turns to Soviet Union for supply. In October, Burundi enters a civil war when democratically elected Hutu president, Melchior Ndadaye, is assassinated by Tutsi extremists and violence breaks out between the two groups. On the same month, a raid on Mogadishu ends with the death of 18 US soldiers and over 1000 somalis. In South Africa, Chris Hani, an anti-apartheid activist, is assassinated. The murderer escapes but is found dead on the next day. Investigation progress slowly, riots are taking place throughout the country and F.W. De Klerk is increasingly criticized before being forced out of office while new elections are organized. The widespread violence that had followed hani’s assassination worries the white minority and Ferdinand Hartzenberg, leader of the Konserwatiewe Party van Suid-Afrika, is elceted (under suspicion of widespread cheating). The ANC is banned, Nelson Mandela is arrested again, and before year’s end the process that could have led to the end of Apartheid ended. In addition, the new President declares that South Africa will resume it’s nuclear program.

[Mohoender]

Europe experiences several changes. Voters in Norway refuse to join with the newly constituted European Union but those in Finland and Sweden accept. In June, in Italy, Democrazia Cristiana is disolved and a coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi is brought to power. It is known as Polo delle Libertà and composed of Lega Nord, National Alliance, Christian Democratic Centre and Union of the Centre. It brings a lot of hope among the population but this is short lived as the government fall when the Lega Nord leaves the coalition in December.

In Russia, in August, the All-National Congress of the Chechen People (NCChP) headed by former Soviet Air Force General Dzhokhar Dudayev launches a large-scale armed campaign to remove communist rule. It is opposed by a hill prepared Red Army which is still in a deep process of modernization. Soviet troops suffer greatly, ultimately come up on top but fail to crush Dudayev’s forces. Further east, relations between Russia and China continue to improve and both countries agree to de-target their nuclear weapons against each other while, talks start on a new treaty that would broaden the military collaboration between CSTO and China.

In Yugoslavia, the situation had evolved and the Croat-Bosniak war officially ends on February 23, when the Commander of HVO, general Ante Roso and commander of Bosnian Army, general Rasim Deliç, sign a ceasefire agreement in Zagreb. This is followed, in March, by a peace agreement establishing the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

A civil war shakes Yemen between April and October and, on May 21, southern leaders secede again and establish the Democratic Republic of Yemen under the leadership of Haidar Abu Bakr al-Attas. Warsaw Pact 2 recognizes it and sends supplies that are, surprisingly enough, paid by Saudi Arabia which had felt threaten by the reunification of Yemen. At last, a peace is signed in the Jordan Capital of Amman and Yemen’s reunification becomes history: The Republic of Yemen rules over the north with its capital at Sana’a while the Democratic Republic of Yemen rules in the South with its capital at Aden. Soon after, the beginning of the civil war in Yemen, another civil war breaks out between Kurdish factions in Iraki Kurdistan. Massoud Barzani's Kurdish Democratic Party, backed by Iran, launches an attack on Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. As a result, by year’s end, 2000 people had been killed on both sides. In July, as most of the world is looking at Kurdistan and Yemen, Israel and Jordan sign the Israel-Jordan Treaty of Peace, which formally ends the state of war that has existed between the nations since 1948, providing a point of stability in the region.

South Africa is now shaken by increasing popular unrest but reasserts its control over Walvis Bay. The leading party of Namibia (SWAPO) is reluctant to take action despite support from USSR and renounces its claim on the town. Almost at the same time, US troops are withdrawn from Somalia. Another important event takes place in Africa when, in April, both the Rwandan president and Burundi president die when a missile shot down their plane. That attack triggers what is to become the Rwandan Genocide.

All over this year, the entire American continent appears as the most stable area of the world outside what happens in Chiapas. On January 1, riots are starting in the separatist region of Chiapas (Mexico) and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN), led by Commander Marcos and backed by Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, starts a guerilla war against the government in Mexico.

[Mohoender]

On January 1, Austria, Finland and Sweden join EU while Germany’s government accepts to back the Sudetendeutsche Landsmannschaft (Sudeten German Homeland Association) in its claim toward the Czech Republic. This claim, relatively moderate, calls for the complete revocation of the Beneš decrees which established the expulsion of Germans from Czekoslovakia after the war. Neverhteless, it slows down the adhesion process of the newly established Czech Republic to the EU and brings up worries among the Czech population. In the Balkan, the war contunue to heat up and reach a turning point when the Serbs occupy the UN "safe area" of Srebrenica in eastern Bosnia and kill around 8,000 men. Soon after, the Croatian forces launch “Operation Storm” and take over the Serb Krajina in Croatia, giving the initiative to the Bosniak-Croat alliance. Their forces even come to threaten the Bosnian Serb capital Banja Luka with direct ground attack. At last, on December 14, the Dayton Peace Agreement is signed in Paris and the conflict is brought to its end. Croatia is recognized by Serbia while the Republka Srpska is recognized as one of two main political-territorial divisions of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

In the Middle-East, a most striking event takes place in Iraq. In January, the CIA manages to negociate a truce between Kurdish factions and makes contact with Iraqi officers planning an assassination of Saddam Hussein. Plans are made to link this assassination to a Kurdish offensive toward Northern Iraq. This is carried out in early March and Saddam is effectively killed with tank fire while the Kurdish forces make a swift move over Northern Iraq. Moving fast, the Kurds destroy three Iraqi Army divisions and capture 5,000 prisoners over only a few days. However, this isn’t fast enough and the power vacuum created by Saddam’s assassination allows for an all-out uprising by Shiites under leadership of Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr. Backed by Iran, its partisans make quick gains, securing the south and its oil fields as well as most of Baghdad. When December comes, the country is in a civil war opposing the Kurds and the Sunni to the Shiite. Meanwhile, on November 4, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin is assassinated at a peace rally in Tel Aviv.

As most of the world’s attention is drawn toward the Balkan and the Middle-East, another major event takes place in Asia, it is known as the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. It starts when Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui makes a speach, at Cornell, arguing in favor of Taiwan Independence. The PRC is furious with that declaration and launches several military exercises off the coast of Taiwan. These continue all year long up into 1996.

In Africa, the UN peacekeeping mission in Somalia ends in March and the country enters a period of chaos. In Algeria, the civil war that has started in 1991 becomes bloodier everyday. To the south, hope for peace vanishes when the governments of Mali and Niger fail to reach a peace agreement with the Tuareg Rebellion leading the way to a revived insurgency. Fighting has also increased in Angola where the conflict progressively spread to neighbouring countries bringing instability to the entire region. The situation also worsen in South Africa where ethnic unrest has kept growing since the revival of Apartheid. It turns to open violence but, as the West officialy condemn the repression, several government secretly back Hartzenberg’s government.

In Latin America, the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN) proves capable of resisting several offensives by government forces and a fair portion of Chiapas still escapes central control. Then, in the Andes a short conflict takes place between Ecuador and Peru: the Cenepa War. The conflicts ends after only a month but peace talks prove extremely difficult.

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The year is marked by a step in international tensions that will prove determinant for the fate of our world. The crisis between China and Taiwan goes deeper when the USA switch from their relatively neutral posture to a more aggressive one, sending two carrier groups in the area by mid-March. This shows not only a symbolic gesture towards the ROC, but a readiness to fight on the part of the USA. Realising the US.Navy CVBG's incredible threat to the PLA Navy, China becomes painfully aware that it needs more allies and, on April 26, establishes the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) with the CSTO. As a result, the slow technical cooperation that had existed since 1991 quickly changes to extend in dramatic proportions. The amount of exchange increase, more raw materials are sent from USSR to China, a pipeline is projected and both country agree on a currency exchange rate between Yuan and Ruble. In addition, the PRC choses to accelerate its military build up. Soon it orders Sovremennyy-class Missile Destroyer from Russia, a cold war era warship designed to counter the US Navy’s CVBG. Then, in mid-December, during the visit to Moscow by Chinese Premier Li Peng, he subsequently orders modern attack submarines (Kilo Class), modern warplanes (Sukhoi Flankers) and one of the modified Kiev-class aircraft carrier which is to be transfered within two years.

Another important event occurs in Asia when, on September 18, a North Korean Sang-O class submarine runs aground in South Korea. Despite, numerous protestations from Pyongyang and from the international community, the crew are described as spys by South Korea and killed by the South Korean military. This puts an end to recent reconciliations efforts and North Korea applies for membership in the SCO. Then, while Pyongyang is not accepted as a fully participating member, it is granted an observer status.

Since the fall of Berlusconi’s coalition in Italy, political instability remained the norm all over 1995 and this result in the surprising outcome of the April Elections. The Lega Nord gets almost 25% of the vote, gaining no less than 138 deputies and 67 senators as well as a majority of seats in all northern region with the exception of Emilia-Romagna. Almost Immediately, Umberto Bossi, leader of the Lega Nord, reveals that his aim is the secession of Northern Italy under the name Padania. This becomes a reality when the two other politcal coalitions (L’Ulivo and Polo delle Libertà) start to break up after summer. Popular demonstrations and riots plague the northern part of Italy up to November and the secession is effective on November 26. With wide popular support and most of the Italian military siding with it, Padania gains international recognition as The Napoli Republic is created over the southern half of the Peninsula, ruled by a left-wing coalition named “Neo-Ulivo” and led by Romano Prodi. Lazio and Sardigna follow their own path and, led by Oscar Luigi Scalfaro, build strong ties with the Vatican City. As a result, they become known as the “Papal State”. At last, an Italian National Conference is to be held in January 1997.

Meanwhile, Germany’s intervention on behalf of the Sudeten claims had shown its impact during the May elections of the Czech Republic. The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia gains a majority of the seats, Filip Vojtech forms the new government and Václav Havel is forced to resign in July. Then, in September, the Czech Republic withdraws from the adhesion process to the EU and negociations are started with the Soviet Union. It quickly appears that the new rules guarantee further freedom and Filip Vojtech applies to the SCO. The Czech Republic is finally accepted on November 1.

The Iraqi Civil War ends by a split of the country when the Shiite, controlling the regular Iraqi Army and getting increasing support from Iran, asserts their control over Baghdad and over the southern half of the country. Consequently, they have their hands on most of the oil and this allows for a fairly important influx in cash. An Islamist Republic is established over Shiite’s controlled territory and Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr becomes the head of state. Meanwhile, Kurds and Sunni, backed by Iraqi Republican Guards and still receiving US supplies coming in through Israel and Jordania, launch a terrorist campaign as they establish the Free Republic of Iraq with their capital city at Tikrit. In addition, on April 6, when Turkish authorities launch “Operation Hawk”, an offensive against rebels from the Kurdish Worker's Party (PKK) in southeastern Turkey, it is suspected that regular Kurdish units are involved.

Africa also gets its share. Colonel Ibrahim Baré Maïnassara deposes the first democratically elected president of Niger in a military coup. Fighting breaks out in Monrovia, Liberia, between various rebel groups and the faction led by Charles Taylor comes on top. Unrest continues in South Africa and, despite this being met with increasingly brutal force, the neighbours and the world don’t go any further than verbal condamnation. Finally, in November, the vice-governor of South Kivu Province in Zaire orders the Banyamulenge to leave the country on penalty of death and they erupts in rebellion. Anti-Mobutu forces combines to form the Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Zaire (AFDL). The AFDL receives the support of the leaders of African Great Lakes states, particularly Paul Kagame of Rwanda and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda while many elements of the Zairian Army joins Laurent Désiré Kabila as he marches from eastern Zaïre on Kinshasa.

In the middile of this turmoil, Latin America seems quite stable but as the world’s attention is atracted elsewhere, various insurgencies and drug cartels increase their influence and become more active: Bolivia (Comision Nestor Paz Zamora, CNPZ), Chile (Frente Patriótico Manuel Rodríguez, FPMR), Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, FARC and Ejército de Liberación Nacional, ELN), Guatemala (Unidad Revolucionaria Nacional Guatemalteca, URNG), Honduras (Frente Patriótico Morazanista, FPM), Mexico (Zapatista Army of National Liberation, EZLN and Ejército Popular Revolucionario EPR), Nicaragua (Contras) and Peru (Movimiento Revolucionario Túpac Amaru, MRTA).

Despite this, relations with USSR and China continue as western business involvement there still grows. US citizens perceive the world as being increasingly stable while the continuing economic growth that characterizes this mid-1990’s benefits President Clinton. In November, He goes to win re-election with a substantial margin in the popular vote and electoral college.

On the same day, Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto's government is dismissed by President Farooq Leghari after widespread allegations of corruption. She is soon replaced by an increasingly military leadership.

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On April 24, countries in the SCO further sign the Treaty on Reduction of Military Forces in Border Regions at Moscow. Slightly later, these same SCO members sign the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, adding a political dimention to their cooperation in both civilian and military fields. Article 9 (When a situation arises in which one of the contracting parties deems that peace is being threatened and undermined or its security interests are involved or when it is confronted with the threat of aggression, the contracting parties shall immediately hold contacts and consultations in order to eliminate such threats) is effectively understood to be a defense pact by the West and the new alliance becomes known as the Shanghai Pact. Reactions are immediate: UK doesn’t hand sovereignty of Hong Kong to the PRC on July 1 (The first Sino-Western Crisis) and suspend plans to reduce its military. The French governement slightly raises military expenditures (It brings them back to 3.7% of its GDP), launches the long delayed second nuclear aircraft carrier and plan to further expend the navy. Sweden starts to modernize the equipments that had been put in storage and Germany, collaborating with Ukraine make the refiting program of 1993 a reality. In the meantime, the Italian National Conference last from January to March and results in a full recognition of the de facto situation while US diplomats succeed in bringing Albania, Greece and Macedonia to the discussion table. As a result, these three countries sign a mutual border agreement they think would provide some regional stability to the Balkans.

Not far away, in Albania, after failure of a pyramid investment schemes and the loss of $1.2 billion invested by the population, thousands of citizens gather daily, demanding reimbursement. Protests soon turn violent in the south, especially around the port city of Vlora, where numerous residents arm themselves with weapons looted from army barracks. President Sali Berisha declares a state of emergency, but rioting and destruction spread throughout the country, gripping the capital, Tirana, for two weeks. Finally, anarchy sweeps across the country and the southern half of Albania falls under the control of rebels and criminal gangs. On March 11, the members of the Socialist Party win a major victory when their leader Bashkim Fino is appointed prime minister. However, the transfer of power does not stop unrest and, fearing the spread of unrest outside Albania's borders, the United Nations authorize a force of 7,000 to direct relief efforts and to restore order. After the unrest, over 3,000,000 guns are missing, they soon appear on the international market and many are transfered to the Kosovo Liberation Army (UçK).

USSR proposes to recognize Ukraine independence in return for recognition of the Crimean Soviet Republic and for the transfer of all nuclear devices that had fallen under control of the Ukrainian government. Ukraine is reluctant to accept as this agreement implies that it definitely gives up claims on Crimea but, undermined by corruption, organized crime and a 60% reduction of its GDP, it finally accepts, gaining recognition from all Shanghai Pact members in October.

In Asia, tensions remain high between the two Koreas but as far as this year is concerned no agressive actions are taken by either Pyongyang or Seoul. Both regimes limit their actions to reinforcing their respective positions on the 38th parallel. China experiences a growing stability as the level of living improves while Japan economy continue to worsen. A 2.4% budget surplus in 1991 had turned to a deficit of 4.3% by 1996 and appears to move toward 10% by next year, with the national debt to GDP ratio reaching 100%.

In the Middle East, Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadris assassinated on February 19 in an obvious attempt to destabilize the Islamic Republic of Iraq. Whatever, this move proves unproductive as he is replaced by his son Muqtada al-Sadr, a radical leader of only 24.

Finally, the First Congo War comes to an end in May when Laurent-Désiré Kabila enters Kinshasa, procalmes himself President and changes the name of the country to Democratic Republic of Congo. The situation in South Africa worsens again and it slowly enters a civil war with heavy fightings taking place in the eastern half of the country.

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Early this year, the world attention is attracted again toward what is happening in the Balkan Region. UçK attacks suddenly intensify, centered on the Drenica valley area and Serbian police responds to the UçK attacks in the Likosane area. They even pursue some of the UçK to Cirez, resulting in the deaths of 30 Albanian civilians and four Serbian policemen. Then ,on March 5, the

Serb police pursues Jashari and his followers in the village of Donje Prekaz. Ultimately, a massive firefight lead to the massacre of a further 60 Albanians, of which eighteen were women and ten were under the age of sixteen. This event provokes massive condemnation from the western capitals and Pat Buchanan, despite the UçK being listed as a terrorist organization, states that "This should not be considered internal affair of the FRY". A week later, a UN resolution backed by USA, UK and France is vetoed by both China and USSR.

On March 24, Serbian forces surround the village of Glodjane, in the Dukagjin operational zone, and attack a rebel compound there. Despite superior firepower, the Serbs fail to destroy the UçK unit which has been their objective. Neverhteless, there are deaths and severe injuries on the Albanian side and U.S. asks again for a UN resolution. When this is refused President Clinton calls for a press conference in Washington. Accompanied by the Secretary of Defense and by the Joint Chief of Staff, he declares that “the situation in Kosovo is posing a risk to regional stability and represents a direct threat to several NATO members”.

Unable to get UN backing, the U.S. administration turns to NATO and plans are made for an all-out air offensive on Serbia. Nevertheless, as tactical and strategical difficulties appear, the attack is postpone and it becomes obvious that it will not take place before the end of this year. Then,as fightings continue between UçK and Serbian forces, the western countries involved build up charges on Serbia. By year’s end evidences are brought up of a planned ethnic cleansing by the Serbian authorities and, despite strong denial by the Serbs, these evidences are repeatedly presented to the western public. Slowly, the public opinion becomes increasingly supportive of a military intervention and more ships are sent to the area as the number of sortie by NATO aircrafts over the Adriatic Sea increase. Meanwhile, terrorist operations by Kurds and Sunni in both Iraq and southeastern Turkey increase steadily.

Then, Turkey has grown worried about this situation and fills in an official complain to the UN. However, this is dismissed by a veto from UK and USA. When a terrorist attack in Istanbul kills over 100 people, the Turks are chocked. Popular demonstrations take place among all Turkish cities and the American embassy at Ankara is even hit by mortar rounds. Following this, Prime Minister Ahmet Mesut Yilmaz is forced out of office and Necmettin Erbakan of the Welfare Party (Refah Partisi), an Islamist formation, is elected. Soon after, the constitution is amended, Ankara announces that it withdraws from NATO and, in violation to the NATO treaty, all NATO personnels are immediately expelled while many equipments are confiscated. Voices in Washington claims that this is a casus belli but Clinton’s administration, already occupied by the situation in Serbia, favor negociations.

In August, Kabila dismisses all ethnic Tutsis from the government and orders Rwandan and Ugandan officials to leave the DRC. The two countries then turns against their former client and send troops to aid rebels attempting to overthrow Kabila. Soon, the fall of the capital and Kabila, who had spent the previous weeks desperately seeking support from various African nations and Cuba, seems increasingly certain. Nevertheless, Kabila is saved when fellow members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) respond to Kabila's request for help, soon joined by several more nations: Chad, Libya and Sudan. However, these forces are unable to defeat the rebels, and the situation slowly escalates into direct conflict with the national armies of Uganda and Rwanda that form part of the rebel movement. Outside of Africa, most States remain neutral but Western mining and diamond companies, most notably from the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan supports the Kabila government in exchange for business deals.

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On March 12, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Ukraine join NATO and, two weeks later, the organization launches air strikes against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, attacking a sovereign State for the first time in its history. The proclaimed goal of the NATO operation is summed up by its spokesman as "Serbs out, peacekeepers in, refugees back" but this action doesn’t have the backing of the UN. China and USSR even appear extremely hostile and People in some circles are fearful of a China or USSR direct intervention on behalf of Yugoslavia. By mid-April, however, it has become obvious that neither of them plan such action.

China, also not militarily involved, only grants technical support to Yugoslavia and helps Belgrade in his effort to lower the effect of NATO bombings. Then, more and more military supplies are shipped through Bulgaria to Belgrade, allowing for a higher level of readiness among Serbian forces. Consequently, NATO losses increase slightly. Serbian resistance is, in many ways, outstanding but the situation proves increasingly difficult nonetheless.

The situation evolves further, on May 7, after NATO bombing of the PRC embassy in Belgrade, triggering the second Sino-Western Crisis. Three PRC citizens are killed, Beijing is outraged and popular demonstrations take place in front of U.S. ambassy in Beijing and U.S. consulates in other cities. Two days later, throughout USSR volunteer militias are raised to be sent in Serbia while the amount of supplies sent through Bulgaria increase. This galvanize the Serbs and large demonstrations are now held in Beograd and throughout the country in support of the government. As a result, on June 12, Serbia rejects a peace proposal and it becomes obvious to NATO that this war cannot end without a ground offensive. However, as this option slowly starts to be discussed among NATO members, antoher wave of demonstration takes place, this time in Beijing, Moscow and several cities of the Shanghai Pact. It now becomes obvious that a ground offensive might bring the world to a global conflict and the Western world is not ready for it. Finally, NATO bombings end on July 18, and a ceasefire is signed with Yugoslavia on July 22. Meanwhile, evidences of UçK exactions toward the Serb population are realeased and, when the Serbs launch their fall offensive, the wolrd doesn’t react anymore. As a result the UçK is largely defeated by November 11 and peace negociations starts with NATO. It is signed on November 15 but further negociations on financial repair turn short as the organization refuses responsibility in the conflict. The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia joins the Shanghai Pact on November 20.

As the conflict ends, USSR achieves the modernization of the last two Kiev-class which have become true carriers (One of which had been delivered to Beijing last year)and new equipments are issued to the Army (BMP-T, BTR-T, BMD-4, BPM-97, Gaz-3937 “Vodnik” and Gaz-2975 “Tigr”). Modernization is well underway when, hundreds of Chechen enter Dagestan and trigger the Second Chechen Crisis. Within days, Soviet military units are moving in, reinforced by MVD troops and KGB agents. They progress quickly pushing Dudayev’s partisans further to the mountain. In Western Europe, the Euro is established and introduced to the world financial markets as an accounting currency.

China is facing unrest in the Xinjiang province after the arrest of several muslim ouïghours, two of them being executed on january 28. Following this, demonstrations are taking place in the regional capital of Urümqi and in several other cities but the PLA quickly moves in. The repression is bloody and by early june the international community account for 300 people killed and at least 5000 arrested. Moreover, on May 8, Rebiya Kadeer is arrested at Urümqi under the charge of “releasing state’s secret informations”. Following her arrest, her husband, Sidik Hadji Rouzi, is received at the White House while Canada, EU and US grant him a large support and push toward the formation of the “East Turkestan Government in Exile”. This trigger the third Sino-Western crisis as CSTO members call for the respect of PRC sovereingty.

In May, the Kargil War errupts between India and Pakistan. Fighting are heavy and the world grow fearfull of a nuclear war. Finally, President Clinton pressures Pakistan to retreat and the conflict end in July. Tensions will revive a month later when a Pakistani aircraft is shot down in India. Following it, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif attempts to dismiss Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf but fails and Musharraf stages a coup and takes control of the government. Over the next months, the military takes full control of civilian administrations in Pakistan.

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The Russian Armed forces achieve technical victory in the second Chechen Crisis and clean Grozny in February following a long lasting large-scale counter-insurgency operation. However, Chechen militants throughout the North Caucasus region still challenge Russian political control over Chechnya and due to several reports pointing at Soviet’s brutality, linked to parallels with China, relations with the West grow increasingly colder. Then, on September 2, Lukyanov declares that USSR no longer recognize the CFE Treaty and orders several Soviet units to move back to the European theater. France and Germany react immediately by increasing the strength of the Franco-German Brigade. In addition, while the French parliament vote again to increase military expenditures (Now reaching 4.5% of its GDP), Germany announces that it will no longer comply to its treaty obligation and expends its forces well above 370.000 manpower. As Sweden three years earlier, UK starts to refit the equipments put in storage during the early 1990’s and accelerates the refitting and modernization of several ships. As an answer to the Soviet move on the CFE treaty, the USA withdrawn from the ABM treaty, suspend further reduction of the reserve fleet and refund its ASAT program, expecting to field the firsts of 112 ASM-135 as early as next year. However, Soviet military programs continue as they had for almost a decade but, on August 12, the Russian Navy loses their submarine K141 “Kursk” which sank in the Barents Sea, resulting in the deaths of all 118 men on board. Western medias largely cover the event and many analysts state that, despite all their possible efforts, the Soviets cannot overcome the poor level of profeciency plaguing its personnels, enlisted and officers. This will prove inaccurate but contribute to an underestimation of Shanghai Pact military capabilities among NATO.

In Anatolia, as confrontation continues between the PKK and the Turkish Army, that last one find itself in need of finding new additional sources of supplies. Then, while retaining its new neutrality, Ankara signs several trade agreements with the Shanghai Pact and Iran. It buys various equipements and trade Western technologies for oil. As a result, tensions increase with its former NATO allies and the western press is particularly aggressive. Moreover, in June, UK and US issue a call to have the UN intervene in order to end Turkish brutality against the Kurds. The Turks are outraged and announce that the Bosphorus is now close to NATO military ships.

In Algeria, the government makes the first real step toward final victory over the terrorist movements that had plagued the country for years. On January 11, the armed wing of the Islamic Salvation Front (FSI) concludes its negotiations with the government for an amnesty and disbands. Further East, Israel cancel the withdrawal of its troops from Southern Lebanon and, soon after, on September 28, the israeli opposition leader Ariel Sharon visits the Temple Mount, protected by a several-hundred-strong Israeli police force. Then, Palestinian riots erupt leading to a full-fledged uprising called the Al-Aqsa Intifada.

In Mexico, Vicente Fox is elected President of Mexico, as candidate of the rightist PAN (National Action Party), ending 71 years of PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) rule. Slightly earlier, the socialist lenient, Ricardo Lagos was elected president of Chile, initiating what will soon become known as the Pink Wave. Further North, in the USA, the presidential elections are won by an unexpected so-called independent candidate named John Tanner. Tanner’s vice president Deanna Pemberton is the first woman to hold such a high elective office. The final outcome is not known for over a month because of disputed votes in Florida.

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In his inaugural address, President Tanner declares ""When the Berlin Wall finally fell, we all hopped for a better world. This as not come true and the Soviet Hydra is stronger than ever. Once more our democracy must stand." On February 6, the noted victory of Ariel Sharon, leader of the Likud Party, in Israel and the continuing Al Aqsa Intifada had put a difinitve end to an eventual peace process. In UK, Tony Blair’s Labour Party wins the elections on June 7 and Pervez Musharraf becomes President of Pakistan two weeks later. Meanwhile, on April 1, a Chinese J-8II fighter jet bumps into a USAF EP-3E surveillance aircraft (The pilot, Wang Wei, goes missing and is presumed dead) which is forced to make an emergency landing in Hainan, China. President Tanner is particularly offensive and declares China to be fully responsible for the incident. Beijing immediately answers and declares that the crew will remain under Chinese custody and will have to answer the charges of murder and spying. As it occurs, the aircraft is dissassembled and it is obvious that it will not be returned. As a result, on June 20, the White House speaker declares that “being considered a rising power will not prevent China from responding of its acts” and, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, the level of allert among NATO is raised. On June 22, foreign investments cease and the West declares an embargo toward Beijing.

A week later, Moscow and the entire Shanghai Pact declare their own embargo toward the West generating a major crisis. Some goods quickly become unavailable to the West and the Dow Jones plunge by more than 15% on July 10. By the end of July, it has lost more than 22% reaching a level close to that of 1998. Meanwhile, all Shanghai Pact members suspend the use of dollars, large businesses and banks go banckrupt as unemployment rise by more than 10% in Europe and in the USA. The western economy had already sustained a major contraction when, on August 17, a wave of anti-Soviet demonstrations in Crimea is violently suppressed. Small groups appear to be equipped with military small arms and Moscow claims that the Ukrainian Army is behind those it calls terrorist. Kiev denies any involvement with rioters but several military units move closer to the border to step up security and this is followed by border incidents involving units of the Ukrainian and Soviet armies. At last, elements of the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command cross the frontier into Crimea in retaliation for what they described as a "full-scale attack". Within two days Ukraine and USSR are at war. Ukrainian forces are outnumbered and the Soviet Army progresses steadily, taking Dniepropetorvsk in early September. In mid-September, their forces crack the line of Ukrainian reservists holding the western flank and cut south into Ukraine, leaving Lvov to the side in a rush toward Odessa. Heady with victory, the Politburo reveals its intention to reintegrate Ukraine within USSR. Claiming that their initial actions were justified by provocations from the Soviet Union and that they now face dismemberment as a state, Ukraine turns to its NATO partners for assistance. While the political leadership of most European members of NATO still debates the risk of escalation, Bundeswehr, Polish and US Army units start to move East as Romanian troops enter Ukraine on September 28.

On the following day, Denmark, Luxemburg, Hungary and Padania demand that all NATO units withdraw to their start line and (when these demands have no effect) withdraw from NATO in protest. British, Canadian and Dutch forces join, however, while troops from the other members remain in place, still partners in NATO but not yet fully party to war. On October 1, North Korea is accepted to the Shanghai Pact while, on the same day, all Asian Partners declare that they will remain neutral. Things are much more different in Europe and as NATO troops enter Belarus, the Czech Republic, entirely isolated, opposes a tough resistance on its borders. In the Balkans, Bulgarian and Serbian troops attack in Romania and initially find little resistance. However, on October 2, when Bosnia and Croatia declare war to the Pact. Serbian units have to be diverted from the offensive in Romania and the remaining troops suspend movements. Meanwhile, Albania and Macedonia declare neutrality cutting the north road to Greek Army Corps.

Over the next weeks fighting continue to build up elsewhere in Europe but the result remain undecisive until early November when the Shanghai Pact, attacking in the far north, make a bid for quick victory in Northern Norway. As a result, NATO members that had remained outside of the conflict enter the war and the Arctic equipped divisions spearheading the russian attack are unable to break through to paratroopers and marines landed in NATO's rear areas. As crack French foreign legion, British commandoes and U.S. Marines join the battle, several elite Soviet paratroopers and marines are isolated and destroyed. At sea, the Soviet Red Banner Northern Fleet sorties and attempts to break through the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Gap into the north Atlantic. For three weeks the opposing fleets hammer each other and the Soviet fleets performs well to military specialist amazement. USSR supports its fleet with many bombers that prove capable of swarming two U.S. aircraft carriers with a large number of missiles. One of the carrier sinks after burning for hours while the other withdraws with important wounds. In addition, Soviet submarines are responsible for the loss of several NATO vessels including “HMS Illustrious” and “Clemenceau”. At last, receiving reinforcements, the western fleets come out on top, bloodied but victorious. Sixty percent of the Russian Northern Fleets tonnage engaged rests on the bottom of the Norwegian and North seas but several major units including “Kuznetsov”, “Pyotr Veliky” and a number of cruisers rally Murmansk. They represent a serious threat to NATO control over the Atlantic. Moreover, most SSBN, including all Typhoons and Borei, as well as scattered SSN and commerce raiders break out. By year's end, these SSN and raiders are wreaking havoc on NATO convoys.

On the very day that sees the neutralization of the Soviet North Atlantic invasion force, an attack is conducted on the Polish harbor of Gdansk by the elite Spetnaz team "Vympel Group". The 280 men strong "Vympel Group", specialized in base infiltration and sabotage, is brought on target by three Orlyonoks. While two missile carrying Ekranoplans of the "Lun-class" launch a hit and fade missile attack on the harbor, the Spetnaz team slips trough the base defenses and set up numerous destruction charges. When everything is over "Vympel Group" has lost only 11 men while the Polish Navy counts more than 500 casualties, 4 ships captured, 14 surface ships sunk and a submarine destroyed (with several more damaged) along with valuable harbor installations. After this action, the Polish flleet is unable to commit more than a few ships to the fight taking place in the Baltic Sea and this represents a major blow to NATO and, the Danish forbidding military ships to sail through Jutland, the German Fleet is virtually alone to face the Soviet Baltic Fleet. As a result, it avoids direct engagements and conducts a series of small actions that continue to the next year and attempt to gain superiority by attrition.

The situation has also evolved in the Mediterranean and, consequently in the Balkans. Greece has finally entered the war and its navy combined with these of Portugal and Spain are now patrolling the Mediterranean, quickly cleaning the Adriatic of Serbian ships. However, no naval confrontation comes with the Pact navies as Turkey has now closed the Bosphorus to all ships belonging to a beligerant country. On land, the Greek Army violates Macedonian neutrality and takes over the country. Soon, its forces are fighting in both Southern Bulgaria and Serbia where the pressure builds up on these two Pact members. Before year’s end, it was expected that both would fall but the situation reverts again when Soviet troops enter the line on December 20. Ankara’s decision had favored the Soviets who quickly achieve the destruction of Romanian and Ukrainian naval forces. In early mid-December the sealane of the Black Sea are fully under Pact control which can safely ship troops and reinforcements to the Balkan Front.

Obviously, a major conflict has started and the quick changes in the global situation already have consequences at all levels and everywhere. World trade had already contracted before the war but that increases as fighting spreads and while there are no specific restrictions yet on the civilian markets, the Dow Jones keeps going down. By years end, it has dropped by 52% and is at 5518 points which was roughly its level of 1996. Already, various quotations had been suspended especially in the financial sector and an economical crisis is on the verge to shake what is left of international trade. Nevertheless, military productions increase in both countries party to the war and neutral nations and it generates new trades that slow the downfall.

In Africa, UN Peacekeeping missions end (UNMEE between Eritrea and Ethiopia, UNAMSIL in Sierra Leone, MONUC in DRC and MINURSO in Western Sahara) and fighting slowly start over again in all these regions. Moreover, other conflicts that had continued to exist are now slowly but surely gaining in intensity: Algerian Civil War, Angolan Civil War, Burundi Civil War (which spreads to DRC and Rwanda), Chadian Civil War, Second Liberian Civil War, Casamance Conflict, Somalian Civil War, Second Sudanese Civil War and Ugandan Rebellions opposing the government to various rebellious movements (Allied Democratic Forces, Lord’s Resistance Army and Uganda National Rescue Front). Moreover, local neglect and the suspension of the UNAIDS (Joint UN program on HIV/AIDS) favor a slow acceleration of the sickness progression. Neverhteless, despite all this, this year is among the most favorable to Africa as the new conflict result in much wealth getting to the continent in exchange for raw materials.

Similar benefits go to Latin America but as this wealth reaches the region, more of it gets to the various insurgencies and cartels that have been spreading over the past five years. Instability increases especially quickly in the Andes (Bolivia and Peru) and Colombia where it almost reaches the level of a full scale war. Governmental forces have had more difficulties to get military supplies and this new situation favors the insurgents except in Chile where the army achieves full victory over the local rebellious movement. Then, despite a slight increase in the insurgent activities of Central America and Mexico, these regions continue to be considered stable.

Then, more than Africa and Latin America, Asia gets its share of the growing war oriented trade but as this seems to lead to a rapid regional development, everything changes on December 13. Five heavily armed men enter the Indian Parliament and kill seven people before being killed themselves. Leaders in India's immediate neighbourhood condemn the attack on the Parliament, including Pakistan but, on December 14, in an indirect reference to Pakistan, Home Minister LK Advani claims, "we have received some clues about yesterday's incident, which shows that a neighbouring country, and some terrorist organisations active there behind it". The same day, India demands that Pakistan stops the activities of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), that Pakistan apprehend the organisation's leaders and that Pakistan curbs the financial assets and the group's access to these assets. In response, Pakistani forces are put on high alert and Pakistan military spokesman Major-General Rashid Qureshi claims that the attack is a "drama staged by Indian intelligence agencies to defame the freedom struggle in 'occupied Kashmir'" and further warns that India would pay "heavily if they engage in any misadventure". On December 20, India deploys its troops to Kashmir and the Indian part of the Punjab in what is India's largest military mobilization since the 1971 Indo-Pakistani War.

[Mohoender]

In the Caucasus, the Soviets, receiving increasing numbers of fresh troops by early spring renew their counter-insurgency operation against the Chechens. Again it is bloody and early reports even point out an unprecedented level of Russian cruelties. Nevertheless, it meets with tremendous success and most resistence is silenced within three weeks. Chechens paramilitary groups have been destroyed and those who surrender are sent to Siberia while survivors cross the border into Georgia. As a result, on March 5, Moscow takes that opportunity to declare war over that small country and invade it. Then, a blitzkrieg offensive storms it and the country is on its knees in just over a week. While air and naval action clears the Skys and the Black Sea, the Georgian army is overrun and surrenders after tremendous losses.

In Eastern Europe, NATO launches a major offensive and progress into Belarus, with Minsk getting in artillery range by early April. However, they fail to cut the sealane supplying Kaliningrad and Soviet troops there put up a spirited fight, remaining a serious thorn on NATO’s side. Then, with the coming of summer, the NATO offensive gains momentum and by May 17, western forces are facing an all-out counter-attack by the Soviet Army which takes control of Latvia and Lithuania without warning. Within a week the Soviets advance in North-Eastern Poland as western forces begin to fall back. The retreat is successfull but has forced the allied command to make some hard choices taking several units out of the southern front. Then, the Czech Republic, which has fought alone for months, sees an oportunity to brake the stalemate and launches its own offensive braking NATO’s front in mid-June. Finally, with the coming of the fall season, Soviet and Czech advanced elements are closing up on the Polish-German frontier while Warsaw is surrounded and Polish army units and the citizens of the city prepare for a siege.

In Romania, the government had issued a law banning the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség) from the political scene. Antigovernment demonstrations by Magyars (ethnic Hungarians) take place in several Transylvanian cities and are suppressed by Romanian riot control police, with some loss of life. Hungary protests the mistreatment of these people and, when the police shoots and kills a man crossing the border with Hungary, suspends diplomatic relations. Romania claims he was a smuggler, bringing arms to antigovernment forces but, three days later, a Romanian railway station in Cluj is blown up and the Romanians conduct mass arrests of Magyars throughout Romania. Police sweeps are met with armed resistance and, within a week, a secessionist Magyar government declares independence from Romania. As what available troops move north to crush the rebellion, the Hungarian government protests again, is ignored, and then declares war. The conflict remains local, however, as the fresh hungarian troops easily dominate the weak forces still available to Romania. Soon, Bucharest realizes that it doesn’t have enough forces to face this new threat, a cease fire is signed within two weeks and Hungarian units enter the secessionist region as peacekeepers.

As this is settled, the fronts in Romania and Ukraine enter a period of attritional warfare. This is short lived, however, and as spring turn to summer, more Soviet divisions, largely legmobile and stiffened with a sprinkling of obsolete tanks and armored personnel carriers, enter the lines. The Romanians and Ukrainians prove better soldiers than the ill trained Russian recruits but the weight of superior manpower begins to be felt. Finally, with NATO retreating in Poland and the Soviets dominating air and waters around the Black Sea, Bucharest and Ploesti fall on August 3 while the Ukrainian Army had lost control over 80% of its territory. Romania and Ukraine, isolated and exhausted, see no choice but to surrender. Neverhteless, several units refuse to obey and form the core of a strong guerilla. Whatever, as this front collapses more Soviet units are freed and are soon redirected toward other fronts.

This stunning victory also allows Bulgarian and Serbian forces to comit fully to the Balkan front where, by early fall, pressure on the Bosnian, Croatian and Greek Armies has seriously built up. Then, as difficulties increase, Athens and NATO blame Turkey for their lack of success while Anti-Turkish demonstrations are held all over Europe and even more so within Germany. There, hundreds are killed while thousands more are sent to internment camps despite several calls for moderations by what is left of the international community and even from NATO members. Soon, the neutral posture of Padania is equally critisized and, on November 10, a number of citizens from that country are also arrested in Munich and sent to these same camps as Ravenna protests. Two weeks later, a defense pact is signed between Turkey and Padania. Finally, on December 1, the Cypriot National Guard fires at several positions held by the Turks and Greece intervene almost immediately, sending troops and supplies. In addition, as fighting builds up between Athens and Ankara, Armenia sides with the Greek, attacks in Eastern Turkey and supplies weapons to the Kurds. Then, the Greek and Turkish navies hammer each other with significant losses but, at last, the Turks come up on top. Then, Padania supports Ankara when it declares the Aegean Sea to be closed to International shipping and, while NATO has not shown any intention to get involved, promises to intervene on Turkey’s side if it tries to tip the balance in favor of Greece.

Further north, by late spring, NATO’s Atlantic fleet has hunted down the last of the Soviet commerce raiders. Attack carriers and missile cruisers move again to northern waters in order to face the continuous threat of the surviving Russian capital units. However, these vessels remain out of reach and NATO, now forced to fall back on all fronts, design a plan that must provide them with quick victory. Ground units are to attempt a rapid outflanking move through northern Finland while NATO Atlantic Fleet would close in on Murmansk and Severomorsk. subjecting Soviet fleet anchorages and air bases to massive bombardments. This is to be carried out simultaneously with a counter-offensive in Poland and on July 7 the ground operation is launched while the fleet closes in on the Kola Peninsula. Finland had been expected to offer token resistance to the violation of its territory but instead the Finnish Army fights tenaciously, forcing the flanking move to abort. At sea the plan fares even worse, as coastal missile boats and remnants of the Northern Fleet supported by what shore-based naval aviation cripple the NATO fleet. By mid July, two major naval fleets in the world are being shattered and fighting in the Great North peters out. Progressively, Soviet units are leaving to be redeployed to Belarus.

Altough this is not a real defeat, the loss of three more aircraft carrier is a serious blow to US citizens overconfidence in their navy. This combined to a news reporting that Shiite Iraq and Iran now ban oil exports to the West triggers a wind of panic among US population. Then, the Pentagone remains certain that a second front is needed, sees an oportunity in this and claims to have further evidences showing that the Iranian Mullahs are about to side with the Shanghai Pact and invade Saudi Arabia. Despite strong denial by both Iran and Iraq, a coalition is formed including France, UK, US and eight Arab countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE). On September 2, the offensive is launched as Iraquian Sunni joins the battle. As the battle is raging in the suburbs of Baghdad, Syria gets involved and launches its own offensive in Northern Iraq. However, its troops are almost stopped on the border while US High command, despite its already heavy engagement in Europe, sends more troops and lands two Army Corps at Bandar Abbas and Bender Bushehr. Teheran is now aware that it needs more help and Mullahs effectively legalise the Tudeh (Iranian Communist Party). Soon after, supplies comes in from the Soviet Union as units from Caucasus and Central Asia enter the region.

In the meantime, in Lebanon, after Colonel Aql Hashem assassination (commander of the SLA western brigade), advocating the change in world situation, Israel sends more units to the area. It also sends more supplies to the South Lebanese Army which expends fast to reach 5000 fighters. As a result, Hezbollah increases its attacks and rockets are soon hitting northern Israel daily but, finally, Tsahal moves first. On August 15, after a series of artillery bombardement and cross border airstrikes, the Israelis launch an attack that initially take the Lebanese by surprise but Hezbollah recovers quickly, sends more fighters to the front line and heavy fighting takes place in Southern Lebanon where Shia militias relie on an inovative type of fighting, using the best Soviet RPGs in massive attacks. Tsahal is losing tanks faster than usual and is stopped on the Litani River when the Palestinian Intifada turns to open warfare. Soon, seeing an oportunity to regain the Bekaa Valley, the Syrian Army launches its own offensive.

Israel, however, has been prepared for such an eventuality and the timely arrival of Israeli airborne troops deprive the Syrians of victory. Already engaged in Iraq, the Syrian Army has to fall back and Damascus now comes under israeli gun range. Moreover, operations in the Gaza Strip and Cisjordania are expended and, by early October, result in heavy civilian casualties among Palestinians. When more reports of Tsahal exactions comes in, Amman plead for Washington to put pressure on Tel-Aviv but it is refused and the King of Jordania withdraws from the coalition, sending troops into Cisjordania on November 1. Israel is taken by surprise and its forces are taking some really heavy losses while complete disaster is only avoided by emergency levees. Equally stunned by some of the reports, Oman and UAE declare neutrality and suspend oil exportations to the West while Algeria and Libya do the same, claiming support to Iran, Iraq and Syria.

As the conflict with Israel develops in parallel to the war between the coalition and Iran, the allies are progressing North, taking Basrah and Nasiriyah on November 15 (Iraq), seizing Ahvaz and Shiraz on November 16 (Iran) and threatening Kerman by November 19. This move stops when more Soviet troops enter the line two days later but Moscow fears that this won’t be enough. Therefore, on November 29, the Soviets attempt to land in Northern Japan but the operation is short lived and the invading force is repelled four days later. However, this move has revealed the importance of the threat to all countries in the Pacific area and a new defensive treaty is signed on December 31 between five countries (US, UK, Japan, Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan). Going by the title of Treaty on Asian Cooperation and Security (TACS) it states that all members assume an obligation to assist each other in case of armed attack.

Also in Asia, tensions continue to grow between India and Pakistan. Following India's move, Pakistan responds by moving large numbers of its troops from the border with Afghanistan to the Indian border. By January, both countries have moved short range ballistic missiles closer to each other's border, and mortar and artillery fire are reported in Kashmir. Moreover, India has mobilized around 500,000 troops and three armored divisions on the Pakistani border concentrated along the Line of Control in Kashmir. Pakistan responds similarly, deploying around 300,000 troops to that region.For months, the situation remains uncertain but tensions escalates dramatically on May 14 when three gunmen kill 34 people in an army camp near Jammu, most of them the wives and children of Hindu and Sikh soldiers serving in Kashmir. Then, Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee and his cabinet grants the Army permission to attack Pakistani military targets and on May 18, India expels Pakistan’s ambassador. On May 20, Indian soldiers have entered Pakistan and progress as more troops are sent to the front.

By May 24, Gilgit is taken to the North, some Indian units are already closing on the Indus and heavy fighting takes place around Islamabad. On June 7, Islamabad has been heavily shelled, Multan and Bahâwalpur have fallen, Hyderâbâd is threaten and the sealanes to Pakistan have been cut after a short naval campain that sees the defeat of the Pakistani fleet. On June 12, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf realizes that its armies could be defeated any moment and orders limited nuclear strikes on Indian’s rear guards and western cites. The next day at sunrise, three Indian cities (Bikaner, Jodhpur and Srinagar) are hit and destroy by MRBM while Pakistani airforce conducts half a dozen nuclear attacks on Indian rear troop concentrations. Now drawn into a nuclear conflict, India responds immediately and strikes but concentrates on Pakistan Army, avoiding to target the civilian population. It’s only two days later, when a second Pakistani strike is conducted at more Indian cities (Chandigarh, Jaipur, Kândla and Simla), that New Delhi crosses the line and fire its own nukes at Pakistan cities. After that, the limited local exchange continues for three days to end with the full collapses of Pakistan facing widespread unrest, dissolution of legal structures and revolting military units now turning on each other. Meanwhile, badly bloodied Indian units withdraw in a hurry to help maintain order in the devastated western regions of India. Then, while it avoids the general chaos now striking Pakistan, India is no longer capable of supplying its population and central rule collapses as various regions declare independence.

The world is stunned as it faces its first true nuclear exchange and while the ongoing European conflict rages and expends, World trade cease to benefit from the war and contracts as it had never before. The Dow Jones had regained some color during the first six months of 2002, but it crashes on June 15 and loses almost 80% in a single week to end at 1273 points, a level comparing to that of the mid-1980’s. International finance immediately collapses, stock exchanges are suspended everywhere and exchange rates between currencies are no longer recognized as the many countries still remaining outside of the conflicts only accept to trade in diamond, gold or good with a recognized strategic value. International trade has changed almost overnight, the level of exchanges drops and commodities shortages are known worldwide (even in countries still at peace) by early fall.

In Africa, all the wealth generated last year disapear and several countries can no longer import or export anything. Famines are added to fast spreading sicknesses and to a new increase in war intensity. New conflicts (Civil war in Zimbabwe, ethnic violance in Kenya, Ivorian civil war, Nigerian religious conflict and Touareg rebellion) are added to an already long list of fightings, wars that had ended sometime for years are revived (Agacher Strip war between Burkina Faso and Mali, Caprivi conflict in Namibia, Guinea-Bissau Civil War, Mauritania–Senegal Border War, Mozambican civil war and Republic of the Congo Civil War), existing wars continue to spread and expend now contaminating neighboring regions and, by years end, human casualties over the continent are already reaching apocaliptic levels. Only a dozen countries (Benin, Botswana, Cameroon, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Ghana, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo and Tunisia) remain at peace and among them the most notable is certainly South Africa. When Apartheid had been reinstated, civil unrest had grown and the country had slowly slipped into a civil war that was won by Pretoria in 2000. Still civil unrest remained a relaity until last year when the large amount of wealth generated resulted in a fair increase in the standards of living for the white minority but also for the blacks and coloured. Now the country remains one of the few to maintain a significant level of trade, generating even more wealth, it has formed a political alliance with Botswana and uses Walvis Bay (Namibia) to back the growing Caprivi insurgency.

Similar effects strike Latin America but the continent is better prepared to face the crisis and no country officially collapses. Nevertheless, insurgencies in the Andes continue and Peru loses control over half of its territory. The situation is even worse in Colombia where, despite what appears, the government fall to the Cartels. Meanwhile, Hugo Chavez establishes the Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América (ALBA), a cooperation organization based on the idea of social, political, and economic integration between countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. Soon, membership grows to reach nine countries: Antigua & Barbuda, Bolivia, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Grenada, Nicaragua, Saint Vincent & Grenadines and Venezuela.

Into Central America, the Mexican government fall to be replaced by a coalition made of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) and Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD). Obviously this generates distrust from the US administration but that is reduced when, the new Mexican government suspend oil exportations to all countries but the USA. Elsewhere in Central America, insurgencies are kept at bay but standards of living drop almost as much as in Africa and famines are only avoided through a rapid conversion of the highly productive local agriculture. Panama is the sole exception as the world situation pushes Washington to increase its military presence on the Panama Canal.

Further south, the major Latin Amlerican countries also organize themselves and MERCOSUR (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) evolves to integrate a defensive component. As soon as this occurs, troops from all member states are sent to Brazil which has been facing a general uprising within its major Favelas for months in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo but also in eight other cities (Belem, B. Horizonte, Campinas, Curitiba, Fortaleza, Guarulhos, Osasco and Salvador. Chile, however, closes its border, issues a partial mobilization orders and suspends the democratic government it had established in the late 1980’s.

[Mohoender]

2003 posted, sorry and placed 2004 and 2005 in the right place

[cavtroop]

I absolutely love alternate histories! Havent read this one yet, but Im going to copypasta it to a pdf so I can read it off line

[atiff]

Nice work - but 2003 appears to be missing from the above posts?

Andrew

[Mohoender]

In Europe, NATO has concentrated more troops in Western Poland and the progression of Shanghai Pact units slows down and it is only by early February that advanced elements cross the Polish frontier into Eastern Germany. However, it doesn’t stop and as they move into Brandenburg and Sachsen, a number of former East-german soldiers join them and Moscow organize the “Karl Marx Korps”, a grand name for a unit that is roughly the size of a brigade.

On May 27, it has become clear that, without aid, forces in the Balkans will be defeated and NATO sends a a small coprs composed of a few US division that lands at Split. Meanwhile, a convoy, accompanied by insufficient covering force, is making the run to the port of Thessaloniki with badly needed ammunitions and equipments when it is intercepted by fleet elements of the Turkish Navy. In the ensuing night action, the Turks inflicts substantial losses to NATO warships and capture about two third of the slow transports, sinking the others andescaping unharmed. Two days later, NATO retaliates with air strikes on Turkish naval bases and, on June 1, Turkey declares war against NATO while Padania, in compliance with its treaty obligations, follow suit on June 2. Immediately, Padanian airmobile, alpine, and armored units cross the mountain passes into Austrian Tyrolia where scattered elements of the Austrian Army resist briefly before being overwhelmed. By mid-month, Padanian mechanized forces are debouching into southern Germany, advanced elements are attacking German territorial troops in the suburbs of Munich and, on June 22, units in Austria briefly link with the Red Army. Other units are rapidly pushing south and within days the Napoli Republic is reduced to the sole Sicily with most of its ships captured at Taranto.

Meanwhile, the Turkish army achieves victory over Armenia and pushes West into Greek Macedonia, also sinking most remaining Greek ships in the following month. As a result, before Padania begins feeling the logistical pinch, the Balkan Front threaten to collapse while, further West, the French are stuck on the Alpine range. Moreover, Ankara, altough still not allied to the Shanghai Pact, starts to send supplies to Iran, Syria and USSR, opening the Bosphorus to Soviet ships, military and civilians alike.

Some reports even signal the growing presence of Turkish soldiers in the Middle East where the Egyptian government facing massive internal unrest orders military units to repress it. However, it evolves in an unexpected manner when the army sides with the protesters and, on May 1, Hosni Mubarak falls to a military coup. Then, the commitee of generals orders Egyptian units in Iraq to join with Iran and Syria, declares war on Israel, closes the Suez Canal and attacks through the Sinai desert, dramatically changing the military balance over the region. Now outnumbered, the coalition forces fall back and take up fortified defensive positions to hold their ground. Meanwhile, Israel is forced to divert part of its forces from its other front to face this new threat. Hopefully for them, the sudden revolution has resulted in several officer’s defections among Egyptian Armed Forces and military efficiency is no longer as high as it was.

In Asia, the TASC treaty is seen as a last provocation and all Asian Shanghai Pact members enter the war on February 25. Then, the Chinese military surpass the expectations of most analysts in its ability to mobilize its forces and several Chinese divisions are seen fighting in Korea as soon as March 1. Pressure also quickly builds up on the British forces defending Hong Kong and after a week of very harsh urban warfare, these troops are evacuated. During this first stage ofthe war in Asia, the South Korean and Taiwanese fleets sustain some really heavy losses and when Hong Kong is left to the Chinese, fear of an invasion of Taiwan grows. However, the US NAVY and the JMSDF assemble a most impressive naval force and, in a series of bitter engagements, destroy the opposing forces: surviving ships of the Chinese bluewater navy remain in anchor while the Soviet Pacific Fleet loses almost eighty percent of its surface vessels.

Now, ANZUS becomes involved and reinforcements are brought to South Korea where they start their own push toward the 38th parrallel, crossing it within weeks and bringing fighting to Pyongyang. Meanwhile, the allied naval forces have enough strength to provide more than ample cover to organize a major landing in Hong Kong. It’s involving troops from Philippines, Taiwan, UK and US which start a push toward central China. Vietnam seizing the oportunity also sends an army into Yunnan and Guangxi facing heavy fighting in southern China. All enjoy rapid initial success, and tank columns roar deep into southern and central China. While the allied continued to make impressive gains up to late May, their losses mounted and the tempo of advance goes down. By late June, large bodies of Chinese citizen’s militia are now operating behind the allied front lines, attacking installations and destroying supply convoy. Moreover, despite several attempts, the Allied fail to disrupt the military industry located in the north and more equipments are coming out every day. As a result, when the main Chinese and Soviet conventional forces counter-attack, large pockets of allied troops are formed. The Vietnamese experiences the most important losses but allied units, while able to fight their way out of the pockets, are losing much in the process. The front is shattered and troop that were on the offensive a few days before begin major withdrawals all along the front line as mobile elements of the Chinese Army rush into victorious pursuit.
In July, the Vietnamese have fallen back behind their borders and Shanghai Pact units have crossed the 38th parallel again. As a result, with Pact and Padanian units obviously preparing a combine offensive from Austria while closing on Berlin, Allied High Command is to decide upon the limited use of nuclear weapons. On August 15, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is accepted with the exception of France and Belgium which both leave NATO signing a separte peace with the Shanghai Pact, Padania, Turkey and Iran. Two days later, they are pulling out from the various fronts and their withdrawal is achieved when, on september 15, the first tactical nukes are used in the Far East. These nuclear strikes over the fields are carried out on a failrly massive scale and Pact mechanized columns are vaporized, caught in the open on the roads. Chinese population and industrial centers, however, are spared but this facts doesn’t prevent widespread panic. Then, as the roads are choked with refugees fleeing from all cities, the communication and transportation system, already stretched to the near breaking point, disintegrates. Moreover, the Chinese response has met with little success as allied forward units were dispersed and prepared. The handful of Chinese bombers attempting to conduct low-level penetration raids are all intercepted and destroyed. The ICBM bases have been destroyed by air strikes conducted with B-2 bombers and, within a week, the Chinese riposte is spent. Taiwan, however, is devastated by several SRBM carrying nuclear warheads while a few IRBM attacks on Japan and Philippines population centers are effective nonetheless. Whatever, China begins a rapid slide into anarchy and civil disorder. A month later, a number of local officers assume the title of Warlords and establish independent states, refusing to obey further orders from the central government at Beijing. The government itself is overthrown on October 8 and, one after the other, the warlords capitulate and begin restoring internal order. Manchuria alone remains faithfull to the Shanghai Pact, still participating in the war and sustaining a second wave of nukes that destroys much of its industrial capability. Once more, general chaos in Manchuria is avoided when Soviet troops move in to secure what is left of Urban and Industrial complexes. Nevertheless, these forces are seldom welcomed and they face a high level of popolar hostility.

In Europe, the nukes are used sparingly at first but the forward elements of both armies are hit hard. By late october, the Soviet forces that had entered Germany are engaged in a general withdrawal, practicing a careful scorched earth policy as they fall back. In the Balkan, NATO forces had also begun an offensive but this comes to a brutal stop when Greece collapses in late November and turns into a collection of city states. Simultaneously, the Bosniak-Croat alliance also begins to break up but US divisions are pushing forward and the one-sided use of nukes save the situation. Then, Serbian forces are in turn on the verge of being destroyed when the arrival of Russian reserves stops the allied columns before they reach Beograd’s suburb.

Meanwhile, as summer turns to fall, Padania is facing major air stikes and an overall naval offensive by NATO. In an attempt to conquer the all of Italy, Portuguese, Spanish and U.S. troops, reinforced by remnants of the Napoli Republic Army, land in Calabria and Campania, starting to push North. In a hury, Padanian forces, pulling out of Austria and Southern Germany, establish strong defensive position on the Alpine passes and rush south, finally stopping the invaders to the south of l’Aquila in the Abruzzo. At sea, a NATO task force faces a combined fleet of Padanian and Turkish vessels soon strengthen by Arab Ships (Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Syria). Fighting last for two days until NATO breafly opens the sealanes to Croatian harbours and destroys most opposing vessels. Suddenly, while NATO ships are engaged in pursuit against the last Padanian and Turkish ships, the Soviet Black Sea Fleet shows up. NATO’s fleet has been dispersed and now suffers a defeat matching that it inflicted on Padania over the past hours. On the outcome, the Meditteranean Sea is now definitely closed to standard allied shipping while the troops operating in southern Italy are quickly withdrawn.

In the Middle-East, the exchange initially carried out by Israel brakes the stalemate when Amman, Beyrouth, Damascus, Teheran, Karaj and Mashad are destroyed. The Coalition forces immediately leave their position and push forward again, meeting with general success but their offensive ends when the Soviets respond. Tupolev bombers launch a number of cruise missiles that hit Doha, Kuwait City and Tel-Aviv as well as the Ghawar and Safaniya oil fields of Saudi Arabia. After that, the use of nukes in the region cease entirely and the forces left turn back to the attrition war they had conducted for months. This might be explained by the fact that the other oil fields were already burning and both sides might have attempted to preserve what was left but, whatever, this is the first region where the conflict slowly enters a frozen postures in which nor peace nor war is clearly defined. Moreover, the Saudi Royal family is assassinated and the Saudi’s political situation evolved into a Civil war opposing the former Kingdom of Hejaz, backed by SANG units, to the tribes that have returned to the desert. As a result, chaos spreads to most of the Arabian Peninsula with Oman and UAE, escaping it, maintaining peace and establishing an alliance with France.

Africa’s slide into chaos acelerates with most war turning to Ethnic conflicts while modern weapons are mostly being replaced with matchets and spears again. Most of the surviving states understand that they won’t survive very long on their own and almost all side with one side or the other. As Ghana is in turn overwhelmed by Ethnic violences, Benin and Togo merge into the Republic of Dahomey which first move is to sign a treaty to become part of the recently created Franco-Belgian Union (FBU). Almost immediately, French military units that, prior to the war, had been located to Abidjan are now sent to the new republic where they help maintain order. Then, five more countries (Cameroon, Djibouti, Gabon, Senegal and Tunisia) join the FBU bringing to the new political entity a number of raw materials that improve its viability. It, however, doesn’t mean that these areas escape entirely from the general insurgency but insteed it implies that they get enough support to keep them under control. On the African East Coast, Kenya and Zanzibar are the sole political entity to survive with Kenya opening its refinery to US troops in exchange for a permanent garrison and Zanzibar establishing an independent Popular Republic. To the south, South Africa, asserts its control over Botswana and pacify Namibia as it increases the strength of its military, expends its navy and establishes a number of trade agreements with Chile, FBU and MERCOSUR. It, then, engages its forces in various border conflicts with its neighbors going to the extrimity of launching three nuclear bombs on Angola, Mozambique and Namibia. When it comes to internal matters , Apartheid is maintained but coloured people are granted more freedom as the government of Pretoria realizes that it needs greater reliable support.

[Mohoender]

Oops! Miss-post

[Mohoender]

With the elimination of China and the de facto dissolution of the Shanghai Pact, USSR finds itself in a very bad situation when NATO air units begin making some deep nuclear strikes against communication hubs in Belarus and western Russia. USSR responds with theater nuclear missiles, launching them against an array of industrial targets and port cities in Netherlands and Germany. In turn, NATO uses similar strikes on industrial targets and major port cities deeper in Russia. Meanwhile, boomers continue their cat and mouse game with attack submarines while both sides engage in a major anti-satellite campaign throughout spring as the exchanges remains limited, both sides hesitating to target the landbased ICBM of the other. Finally, the Soviet Union crosses the line on July 4 when a number of SS18 Satan wreak havoc among US ICBM and command bases. An additional SS18 is targeted at Australia and destroys communication centers there a few hours ahead of high altitude bursts that generate a large amount of EMPs and destroy much electrical power capability over Northern America and the Pacific. Most of the surveillance satellite networks had been dissabled and the US had been warn with some delay but their reponse if late comes and the escalation continues for two days until all boomers are rated as destroyed.

Netherlands, Poland and UK are the most hard hit nations but elsewhere industrial targets clearly vital to the war effort are also targeted (transportation, communication, oil fields, refineries). Even, some industrial and oil centers in neutral nations are blown with the last attack conducted by NATO on French oil and harbor facilities of the Atlantic coast. Then, as the overall destruction appears to be much lighter than expected, general chaos following the exchange prevents repairs outside of spared countries. In the fields, the situation gets out of hand and goes from bad to worse for both sides. The average strength of NATO combat divisions at the front has fallen to about 8,000, with US divisions often running at half of that. Soviet divisions now vary widely in strength, running from 500 to 10,000 effectives, but mostly in the 2000-4000 range. Lack of fuel, spare parts, and ammunition paralyze the armies, no major actions are taken during the second half of that year and military command structures increasingly refuse to obey orders. Nevertheless, military casualties have been much lower than casualties among civilians and only them retain the means of securing and distributing rations. Everywhere people are calling for peace but, as civilian political command structures crumble and, then, collapse, nobody seem to be willing to negotiate it. Finally, among civilians, fear and despair open the way to anger and the populations revolt. In the USA, various states even mobilize what they can (people’s militia or state controlled military units) and turn on the federal institution. Fighting is unequal but brutal and continues over the winter season.

Within, Western Europe and the Pact, the situation varies greatly with countries collapsing while other face revolts. In some regions, the military is strong enough to take over, establishing military dictatorships either at local or national level (This is the case in Spain and Turkey). Nevertheless, on this continent, countries that have not been party to the war mostly escape chaos and keep their pre-war political structure despite often declaring martial law. Within these countries living conditions are better but not ideal as everywhere the brutal stop of global exchange results in shortages of all sort.

In the Middle East, it seems that except for the small exchange that took place, no more nukes had hit the region. However, the level of destruction is really high and proves beyond any doubt that conventional bombing can still be highly destructive. All major cities are damaged to some extend, production facilities have been largely destroyed, energy supply is at its lowest and most oil fields are still burning and it seems that this should continue for months. As a matter of facts only a trickle of oil is now going out of the region while fighting continues.

In North Africa most oil fields and various cities have been destroyed (Casablanca, Rabat and Tripoli) but Egypt is the sole country subjected to major nuclear strikes that leveled Alexandria, Cairo and many cities in the Nile Delta. Moreover, the Suez Canal has been destroyed and the Hassuan Dam broke, flooding the Nile Valey on a biblical scale. In Algeria, the long lasting civil war becomes particularly bloody and chaos now prevails with only local governements remaining. Tunisia is spared. Meanwhile, in Sub-Saharian Africa, the various ethnic wars had turned to a real frenzy but the handfull of governments that survive seem to be slowly stabilizing. Thisi is obvious in South Africa where the new racial laws granting equality between White, Coloured and Asians, only leaving the Black aside, are paying back.

Asia which was hit early is, however, spared by the main exchange and suffers more from widespread instability. Most governement have collapsed and petty wars are everywhere achieving to bring chaos to the region. Casualty levels are therefore less important than in other regions of the world but local conflicts and the various natural disasters that start to hit the region hamper the governement’s ability to rebuilt stable societies. A major exception comes from Oceania which has been largely spared by the war except for the strikes on the empty spaces of Australia. As a result, governments don’t collapse and industries (damaged by EMPs) are quickly rebuilt. In addition, talk starts early about the establishment of a political union that could help the region defend itself.

Meanwhile, throughout Latin America, the situation remains mostly as it was with a balance between insurgent movements, drug cartels influence and fledging governments virtually unchanged. Then, the fairly large political entities (by that time standards) that have grown over the past years gain in stability and achieve an increased level of prosperity. The gap between poors and wealthy continues to grow but these societies appear to be functional and quite well of. People even look at these places with growing envy and hunger.

[Mohoender]

The winter of 2004-2005 is particularly cold. Civilian war casualties in many industrialized nations has reached almost 15 percent by the turn of the year. In these countries communication and transportation systems have been wiped out, food distribution has become almost impossible and the few functionning releif operations have to be cancelled. All over the northern hemisphere, in the wake of nuclear war and widespread unrest comes famine on a scale previously undreamed of, but the worst is yet to come. The exceptionally cold winter delayed simultaneous epidemics but, with the spring thaw, the millions of unburied dead finally bring on the epidemics the remaining medical professionals had dreaded but were powerless to prevent. Plague, typhoid, cholera, typhus, and many other diseases sweeped through the world’s population. HIV and Tuberculosis are now spreading faster everywhere and not only in Africa but the worst comes from SARS and regular flu. By the time they have run their courses, the global casualty rate will be 60%. It is within this chaos that the new world is being shaped.

France, Belgium and Luxembourg had formed the Franco-Belgian Union (FBU) only two years ago and have since been joined by a few countries from Africa and the Middle East (Cameroon, Dahomey, Djibouti, Gabon, Oman, Senegal, Tunisia and UAE). France and Belgium have been hit lightly essentially on their Atlantic coast and have lost all refineries there when Antwerp, Dunkirk, Le Have and Nantes are destroyed. However, when Strasbourg and Toulouse are hit, Paris already has evidences pointing at NATO and orders one of the two SNLE at sea to retaliate. Two missiles are, then, launched at the USA resulting in heavy damages when compare to the number of targets striked. France’s insights of NATO procedures has granted it with a major advantage and in fear to see its last defense being shatered, NATO ensures Paris, that France is no longer a target. Meanwhile, Martial law is enforced nationwide and, as refugees begin flooding across their borders, the government closes its frontiers while the army begins to turn people back with gunfire. In the Pyrenneans, there are several skirmishes with rogue Spanish units as people try to cross into south-western France. In the North, the army is authorized to move west to the Rhine to secure a solid geographical barrier and it results in a short but violent war with Germany and Netherlands. Then, as refugees pile up on the frontier, Saarland is attached to France but a large lawless zone springs into existence where unrest and fighting for food are followed by mass starvation and disease, until this buffer zone becomes barren and empty.

Germany has retained a central government which is now taken over by the military and rules from Nuremberg. However, the country has suffered extensive damages in some regions and entire areas escape its rule. Netherlands have seen their main cities being destroyed and the country is now under partial occupation by the French Army. Austria composes with foreign troops residing on its soil. In the West, German rule is widely accepted and what is left of the Austrian Army merges with the Bundeswehr. In the East, a communist government is formed at Vienna and rules with the help of the Soviet units isolated in the country.

In what was Italy, Milano and Torino had been nuked but the pre-war political split survives. Nevertheless, the Roman Catholic Church has become increasingly influencial again and weight on all political affairs. It has recently convinced Padania to withdraw from the South and the Napoli Republic is de facto independent again. It escapes any kind of central rule while local leadership is highly corrupted and effectivily controlled by the Mafia but Rome has allied itself with the criminal organization, exercising a joint rule over the area.

In the Iberian Peninsula, Spain and Portugal were hit by the nukes with main oil refineries and capital cities being targeted. That had devastating effects and central governments are both a shambles. Gibraltar remains organized and under British control but the area within 20 kilometers of it are in anarchy as the refinery nearby was hit by a nuke. In Portugal, a functional government has been established over the North, at Braga, and controls the nine northern districts along the former Spanish region of Gallicia. In Spain, Andalusia and Catalogna have declared independence and are now forming republics of their own. Madrid has been whipped out and, within the other autonomous communities, a few cities have established almost feudal rules and provide limited protection to locals. Elsewhere, populations survive behind independent and insular walled towns while most land is terrorized and threaten by roving bands of Guardia Civil, GNR and army units which lead a semi marauder extortionist existence.

The Balkans and their surrendings (Slovenia, Romania and Turkey) are a collection of various situations with regions falling under foreign rules, limited areas of stability, widespread chaos and political turmoil on top of an ongoing war that shows no sign of heating down. A similar situation now plagues Ukraine where several military units turn on their former Soviet masters while the former Ukrainian military organized itself among various movements pushing for independence but also conducting several internal feud. As a result of this lack of unity, Soviet forces manage to retain a fragile control over Crimea and over a vital coridor linking Belarus to Romania. The other states in East-central Europe show different situations. Hungary is stable and having escaped the war almost entirely now supplies all sides depending on their hability to pay. Slovakia has fallen under local rule with broad insular areas facing the constant threat of marauders. The Czech Republic is on its knees with Prague grounded and the other cities heavily shelled. Local stability is provided through military rule and the extensive damages suffered by both the industrial and communication networks seriously hamper any rebuilding efforts for years to come. Poland is simply sorched with only a few survivors ruled by national and foreign military units which established themselves in various cantonments nationwide.

UK has been heavily nuked and is now facing a full scale civil war. Survivors of the prewar government have gathered around Prince William which has been crown as King William V (he is nicknamed “King Bill”). His Majesty’s Government (HMG) established itself at Portsmouth and the new government immediately engage in military operations intended to restore full sovereignty over the realm. So far, this has been met with very limited success and the state only rules over the South-East. Scotland and Wales have become independent states along Cornwall while over most of England, surviving cities had declared independence when it became obvious that no immediate help could be expected from government officials.

Scandinavia escaped almost entirely unspoiled with the exception of northern Norway and eastern Finland. However, since the beginning of the year, various governments express growing concern in front of the decaying situation that plague USSR. In order to adress this issue the various head of states meat at Kalmar on September 1 when three days earlier, Soviet High Command for Leningrad Military District has launched a large scale offensive in Sweden in an attempt to seize production facilities and raw materials there. On September 5, while Denmark withdraws, the “New Kalmar Union” is signed between Finland, Norway and Sweden which are now facing this new threat together. This comes as a very bad surprise to the Soviets which don’t have enough troops to face the combined forces of the Scandinavian countries. Gotland Island had already been seized but everywhere else, Soviet units retreat as they prove no match for the Swedes and risk to be cut by the Finns. As winter comes, entire Soviet units disolve, many others turn marauder and threaten the wild space of Finland.

This bold move reflects the growing instability that has plagued the Soviet Union for months. Remote cities turn away from Moscow, people rise up and Republics declare independence, taking control of their remaining military. Regional and frontline commanders refuse to obey central orders and take initiative of their own, trying to carve petty kingdoms for themselves. It is in the wake of this mess that Marshal Aleksei M. Ivanovsky stages a military coup in Moscow, on December 20, overthrowing the Soviet government and establishing the Committee for the Salvation of the Motherland (KCR in its Russian acronym). Compared to pre-war government, KCR is weak but it is, nevertheless, responsible for some outstanding achievements. Limited power is restored to Moscow, limited production starts again and some supplies are sent to various military units. At last, KCR starts to work at restoring part of the railways, paving the way to a semblance of stability. The task, however, is gigantic and might take decades to be achieved.

In North America, as civil war rages, a flood of hungry refugees begin crossing the Rio Grande into Mexico. This is too much for the socialist coalition government which immediately joins ALBA and establishes a number of large refugee camps. Over, summer, with the heat going up, these camps start to be touched by widespread food riots and the Mexican government orders this violence to be dealt with military force. Border states protest, form a loose coalition and start to mass what troops they can gather to the Mexican border. Hoping to counter this threat, Mexican army units cross the Rio Grande but this move provides an oportunity to the US Joint Chief of Staff who calls on American patriotism. Unexpectidly, unrest dries down in weeks, people gather in mass to federal military compounds as units, understrength and armed with a broad collection of weapons, are quickly shifted South. Scattered fighting grows into open warfare while ALBA declares war on behalf of the Mexican government. Mexican light armored columns, soon backed by the Cubans and the ragtag Soviet Division “Latin America”, starts their drive Northeast toward Arkansas and Northwest into southern California. To the North, the Soviet Command for the Far East gathers what it can and launches its last offensive over January and February landing an army corps in Alaska where it progresses quickly. However, as they reach Juneau and Whitehorse (Canada) over summer they are met with fierce resistance from US and Canadian troops. Then, when their supply lines are cut by remnants of the US 3rd Fleet sinking what is left of the Soviet Pacific Fleet, progression comes to a brutal halt. Most retreat but several isolated units declare themselves in favor of NATO while others simply dissolve or turn marauders.

Also at sea, remnants the US 4th Fleet has taken action against ALBA and does its best to achieve supremacy. This fleet, however, has very reduced assets and control of the seas is hardly ever achieved. It cannot even prevent the landing of Cuban and Venezuelian forces in Florida and Texas. For a time, it appears that the southern part of US will fall to the invaders but that couldn’t be admited and the cruiser “Vicksburg” is ordered to launch a number of nuclear cruise missile at Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela. Before the cruiser is sunk, its actions result in the grounding of Caracas, Maracaibo, La Havana and Mexico City along all oil refineries but the smallest one at Ciudad Madero. Nevertheless, that last refinery sustain some serious damages from conventional strikes and its output is reduced to one third of its past maximum. This, the last nulcear strike ever conducted during the war, ends military operations and brings instability among members of ALBA, soon resulting in the dissolution of the alliance and triggering a civil war into Mexico. Meanwhile, military units isolated in Florida are crushed by New American activists fighting alongside Cuban Americans as anarchy spreads again to the USA. Nevertheless, a truce holds between federal and anti-federal forces but when Congress reconvenes for the first time since what is now known as “The Exchange”, several senators and congressmen among the surviving ones don’t attend.

That doesn’t forbid Senator John Broward (D, Ark), former governor of Arkansas who appointed himself to fill one of the two vacant senatorial seats, to be elected President by the House of Representatives. General Jonathan Cummings, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, refuses to recognize the constitutional validity of the election, citing the lack of a proper quorum and irregularities in the credentials of the attending congressmen, and declare a continuation of martial law until such time as a new census becomes practical, that being necessary for a meaningful reapportionment of congressional seats and presidential electoral votes.

President Broward responds with a demand for Cummings' resignation, which Cummings declines to submit. While some federal military units side with the civilian government, a majority continue to take orders from the Joint Chiefs, particularly those overseas, for a simple reason: the habit of obedience is deeply ingrained, and, in many cases, is all that had allowed units to survive thus far. The main effect of the split is a definitive erosion of central authority but a return to a full scale civil war is avoided and, forced to choose between two rival governments (Civgov/Milgov), both with considerable flaws in their claims to legitimacy, many states or even localities simply choose to ignore both. Alaska declare independece turning on the soviet forces stuck on its soil to form the core of its army. Hawaii is de facto independent, Utah, Texas and other states declare independence while a Confederate Sovereign State (CSS) is formed by Alabama, Geogia, Mississippi and Tennessee. New America increases its actions nationwide and rules over Maine and Florida. FBI refusing to side with either governments attempt to organize as an extra-territorial organization operating nationwide but independently of the ruling bodies. Officially, forces of the two governments refrain from violent confrontation, but there are sporadic local clashes over key installations, occasional bloody coups within military units, and numerous assassinations and "dirty tricks" by rival intelligence agencies.

Further north, Quebec, backed by the FBU, declares independence and mobilize its forces against Canada. Skirmishes occur with units loyal to the legal government but true fighting doesn’t take place. Both Canada and Quebec facing each other in what appears as a Phoney War.

The Carribeans are once more the theater of piracy and travelling the seas is dangerous at best. Cuba (Independent), Guadeloupe (France), Martinique (France) and Trinidad & Tobago (HMG allied) are the only territories retaining true governmental control and struggle to survive within the sea of chaos that has become the region. Among them, Cuba remains the only true independent country but, after the grounding of La Havana, the society has become increasingly rural. Moreover, the Cuban military which took upon itself to bring back troops from abroad, takes control of Grenada by accident in the process. All over Central America legal governments face revived insurgencies with the exception of Panama (held with support from Civgov). The entire region going from Colombia to Surinam is now dominated by competing drug cartels while Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia are facing an active isurgency by the Shinning Path and other groups. MERCOSUR, however, has closed its borders, established military curfews nationwide imitated in that by Chile. Then, as both entities still conduct large COIN operations in the favelas of Brazil, in Amazonas and in the Andes, they exploiting their ressources and remain organized.

In the Middle East, fighting remain undecisive as both sides become increasingly isolated. As already last year, in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia despite local efforts nobody really attempted to intervene and it seems fires shouldn’t continue for months but for years on an apocaliptic scale. The coalition has formed a government of its own and still fights the shia of Iran and Iraq backed by Soviets now independent from Moscow. Officially, the road through Central Asia remains open but the semi-independent governments of the region and a revival of the antique tribal system has made it dangerous. The Arabs have lost any kind of unity while the Jews appear to do better. Cities, including Jerusalem, are largely left to themselves but towns and Kibbutz provide much of the needed support and Israel retains an organized army, a few ships and a limited air force.

In Africa and Asia the situation remains unchanged but a major event takes place in Oceania. Australia, New Zealand and various countries of the Pacific attend a regional conference at Sidney on March 15 and, after two weeks of deliberation,declare neutrality in the ongoing conflicts while a treaty is ratified, creating the Oceanian Confederal Union (OCU). Trade barriers between members disappear while protectionist policies are enforced toward the rest of the world. Meanwhile, the new union gets almost immediately involved in a war with Indonesia. New policies have resulted in workers from that country to be expelled in mass and Jakarta declares war. Fighting is bitter especially at sea and around Darwin where the Indonesians have landed troops but the Oceanian forces achieve success, helped by a Malaysian offensive on Borneo and by the acquisition of Chakri Naruebet (renamed Vampire). Defeated, the government in Jakarta falls and, replaced by one favorable to Canberra, signs the peace as parts of the army revolt.

[Marc]

I know, I know... I'ts in Catalan! But it's a little sample of the colaboration beetween two members of this forum, too. And you could find the photographs are interesting.

This is the Catalan translation of the last alternate timeline for Twilight:2000 by Mohoneder. Some time ago we asked Mohonder for his authorization to translate his timeline to our language to use it in our website. After his kind affirmative response we looked for suitable images, added the photograph descriptions and began to publish each year when ready, roughly one year every two weeks. This is the final result. Click in each year to access the info.

The main link:

https://sites.google.com/site/elrefu...ps-alternativa