Mexico

[Mohoender]

The Mexican army has never been that powerful and when it attacked the USA in 1998, that move took everyone by surprise as it was not expected that the Mexican Army could even attempt such a move.

This move was facilitated by the presence of the Division Cuba and rag tag soviet air units. When the Cubans favored the leaving of Soviets ground forces, they did the same with Soviet pilots and all of them ended up in Mexico with a number of viable tanks (T-72 and T-80) and some combat aircrafts that were organized into descent air squadrons composed by a few Mig-29, Mig-21 and Su-25.

However, this would have still remained insufficient if Mexico had not slightly expended its armed forces capability prior to the more global conflict.
- While ERC-90 is the backbone of its armored force, they are not the only "tanks" available. In the early 1990's, the old fleet of M3 Stuart had been sent to Brazil where they were modified by Bernardini to X1A2 standards.
- The somewhat important fleet of AMX-VCI acquired at this time is suplemented with a few hundreds Panhard VCR and VBL bought when the BDX contract failed. Moroever, older or rarer vehicule types such as V150 Commando, M5 Half Track and M8 Greyhound remain in front line service.
- The army still rides on older M151 but several thousands of the newer Hummer where acquired prior to the conflict and are now turned on the US Army (That, of course, depends on Hummer acquisition date by the Mexican army but I have not been able to find it. If anyone knows).
- The artillery remains very weak (with no more than 100 medium and light howitzers) except for a large number of light mortars but it was boosted, nonetheless, by the acquisition of hundreds of brandt mortars (120mm) and a few Milan from France.
- The Air force was equally boosted through the acquisition of a dozen more Northrop F5 from an undisclosed source and by the modernization of the T33 fleet refited through the "Boeing Skyfox" program. While still very small, the Skyfox seriously boosted Mexican ground attack capability. With the addition of the Soviet aircrafts, Mexico had over 60 Jet aircrafts when its forces entered the USA: 8 Mig-29, 11 Mig-21, 20 Northrop F5, 8 Su-25 and 22 Skyfox. This would normally have been no match for the USAF but with the general choas that had followed the nuclear exchange, it had become a serious threat.
- The navy, despite acquiring the two Bronstein-class frigates and a few additional Serviola type OPV remains an outdated force organized around two FRAM modified destroyers, almost 20 Auk-class Seagoing Minesweeper and a large number of light boats.

Finally, when the war started in Europe, the Rural Defense Force was mobilized and when the Army was sent to the offensive, it largely took over internal security missions.

An idea.

[HorseSoldier]

Early 90s the Mexicans were going to buy 300 M60 tanks from the US to refurbish their armor fleet but the deal never went through for some reason. Maybe T2K timeline those are M48s instead, but I agree the Mexican military needs some enhanced combat power and logistics capability to do power projection credibly.

[Mohoender]

I didn't know, Interesting. It's hard to find any serious source on the Mexican Army.

[Webstral]

Turboswede did some excellent work on his Mexican Army Sourcebook. Sales of M60s to Mexico in the early 1990's is an interesting prospect. One could imagine that in after the rise of the new Soviet regime in 1989, a deal like this one might take on enough additional impetus to get completed.

I'm going a slightly different way for Thunder Empire. Following the Soviet renaissance, sales of Western arms pick up a notch. The release of large quantities of hardware from the Soviet stockpile to Third World clients causes the neighbors of the Soviet clients to develop a strong interest in keeping pace. For a variety of reasons, Mexico increases her domestic arms production by striking deals to manufacture modest quantities of French equipment under license. This equipment is aimed at the Latin American market, where the Mexicans expect to have a leg up against European and American manufacturers (including Spain, which manufactured its own AMX-30 fleet under license).

The Mexican entry into the market comes at a unique moment. There is a significant demand in the Western-aligned and non-aligned developing world for an MBT that is easy to maintain and relatively inexpensive. At the same time, many wealthier nations are retiring their fleets of AMX-30, Leopard 1, M47, and M48 in favor of more advanced tanks (now that the Cold War clearly will continue). France is heavily engaged in replacing her existing fleet of MBT with the new LeClerc. Although France can handle some non-domestic demand for upgrading AMX-30, there is an excess of demand. Thus, Mexico enters the licensed production market at a time when AMX-30 are available for rebuilding and a market for rebuilt AMX-30 is growing.

Though annoyed that Mexican-built French arms might displace some American arms in Latin America, the US makes the most of the situation. As Latin American customers begin outlining requirements for new and rebuilt AMX-30, it becomes clear that most of the customers are oriented towards keeping purchase and maintenance costs down. The US strikes a deal with Mexico to provide a large part of the electronics suite of each new tank. Costs are kept down through the use of electronics that are not state-of-the-art but which are durable, reliable, and relatively inexpensive. By mid-1992, the first Mexican refurbished AMX-30 are rolling out of the shop.

Additionally, Mexico opts to build several other important systems under license, most importantly the VAB and VBL. Later, capacity for upgrading ERC 90 F1 to the F4 standard is seen as desirable for nations with small budgets and the need to kill MBT like the T-55.

When China floods the West with orders for equipment of all kinds in late 1995, Mexico finds herself in a position to take advantage of the opportunity, if on a modest scale. AMX-30, VAB, and VBL leave Mexican ports. In addition, the Mexican Army uses the opportunity to shed some of its older systems while setting aside a portion of current production for domestic use. Although some of the systems in use in Mexico were still useful, greater standardization is seen as a cost-savings measure. Consequently, as many DN-IV, DN-V, M8 and other older vehicles as could be replaced are sold. Most of the systems go to China, where formations in low-priority areas and the state security apparatus needed AFV of any sort to replace fighting vehicles being sent to the front. Some systems go to Central America, where anxiety about Soviet clients and leftist revolutionaries combined with scanty budgets to make WW2-era equipment from the Mexican inventory attractive.

As a consequence, by the time of the nuclear exchanges the Mexican Army fields a modest number of AMX-30 backed by a respectable fleet of VAB and ERC 90, both in several variations. Many of the older systems have been sold or scrapped, creating a force that is much more standardized and modernized than had been the case in 1989.

[rcaf_777]

The compsite of Soviet Divison was decussed on here and it more or less a lot of advisors with a Motorized Rifle Reigment, I personally wonder what kinda of shape this unit would given the state of Soviet Army in it war with China

[Mohoender]

Web

Thanks for reminding me of mexican army sourcebook and thank you to Paul for having it in PDF. I had never been able to put my hand on it. Now it's done.

[Webstral]

To put some numbers to the Mexican AMX-30, I'm picturing one battalion of AMX-30 per mechanized brigade, plus one for the Presidential Guard. Each of three armored cavalry regiments (equivalent to a battalion, for those who don’t have their Mexican OB handy) also would have a company of tanks. The TO&E would be for three-tank platoons and three-company battalions. Thus each tank company in the armored cavalry regiments would have 11 tanks, and each tank battalion/regiment in the heavy brigades would have 35 tanks. Total strength of AMX-30 would be about 140 tanks.

[WallShadow]

http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_20855814

A wooden and canvas relic which makes a miraculous save in the middle of a conflagration.

Perhaps the relics _do_ have some supernatural influence and effects on those around them. And why there are powerplays in the various Mexican splinter groups to obtain relics.

As would cursed objects if removed from their places of safekeeping:

http://www.johnzaffisparanormalmuseum.com/

and

http://www.syfy.com/hauntedcollector

[weswood]

Originally Posted by WallShadow

http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_20855814

A wooden and canvas relic which makes a miraculous save in the middle of a conflagration

Holy Smoke!

[Matt Wiser]

This came up on an earlier thread, and it does bear repeating. Once the Mexicans cross the border, General Cummings knows there's not much available to stop them conventionally. The thread had a conversation that took place between him, the Deputy Chairman, and CINC-SAC. It ended with CINC-SAC receiving his orders, and a few hours later, there's nuclear strikes on targets in northern Mexico to smash up their supply lines-and a low-yield detonation on the Presidential Palace in Mexico City to eliminate the Mexican Government. The invasion sputters to a stop when the Mexican commanders see instant sunshine in their rear view mirrors: some go home, others start fighting amongst themselves, and others stay where they are and either go warlord, or their units break up and go marauder. The Soviets stay in San Antonio and wonder why on Earth they accepted this proposal, and all they want to do is get home.

[Legbreaker]

All the Soviets have to do is link up with units in Canada. A possibility earlier in the game, but less and less likely once Mexico falls apart. Even if the Soviets can get to the Pacific coast they've got a chance of seizing a few ships and sailing to link up with friendly units. Over in the Caribbean there's almost no chance what with the high intensity of naval warfare in the early part of the war and theorised continued limited amount of shipping later (the Civgov sponsored mission to Yugoslavia as an example).
Canada/Alaska might not be home, but it's a damn sight closer than Cuba was and much less of a nuclear target (the main reason the Cubans "asked" them to leave in the first place)!

[Webstral]

I had a look at the Mexican rail map again. I think four strikes out to do it for the Mexican rail network: Los Mochis, Chihuahua, Monclova, and Monterrey. The rail crossroads at Los Mochis isn't actually at Los Mochis, but that's a convenient reference point. Similarly, the points one wants to hit to keep the rail links from operating properly aren't really in the other cities.

Of course, road traffic to El Norte won't be halted by these four strikes. But knocking out the rail ought to take the steam out of the Mexican offensive. The Mexicans may very well try to find some way around the breaks in the network. I've been working on something on the side that posits a train of important equipment arriving in Mexican-controlled American territory just before the Second Mexican-American War starts. In any event, I think the American effort would be to halt offensive operations, not kill millions of Mexicans. We've got to live with these people after the Recovery, after all. This ain't Europe, Asia, or Africa.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Webstral

In any event, I think the American effort would be to halt offensive operations, not kill millions of Mexicans. We've got to live with these people after the Recovery, after all. This ain't Europe, Asia, or Africa.

Yes. I was going to post something very similar yesterday but you've hit the nail on the head, Web.

[Matt Wiser]

That's about what we discussed earlier, wasn't it, Web? A half-dozen or so weapons targeted on their LOCs, and a low-yield detonation on the Presidential Palace in Mexico City to take out the Government. Not turning all of Mexico City to slag, mind you, but taking out the Mexican political leadership in one swoop-and an ALCM set on the "low" setting (10-20 KT) would do just that.

If the weapons taking out the rail net were ground bursts, that ensures that there's no way the Mexicans can work their way around the gaps.

[Legbreaker]

Would you even need to use nukes? Would a few cruise missiles with conventional warheads, or a couple of sabotage strikes not do almost as well?
Carried out at a critical moment, it could absolutely paralyse the Mexican advance and perhaps cause them to fall back to secure their supply lines. Combine it with troubles at home and those rail nexus may never be repaired (at least before the invasion collapsed anyway).

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Would you even need to use nukes?

I was wondering the same thing. One possible reason not to use nukes might be the possibility of reprisals against US civilians in US territory occupied by the Mexicans.

[James Langham]

By that time of the war I think people will be regarding nukes as "normal." Plus nukes tend to make the damage somewhat more permanent.

[James1978]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Would you even need to use nukes? Would a few cruise missiles with conventional warheads, or a couple of sabotage strikes not do almost as well?

In an ideal world, no. But this is a world where stocks of conventional cruise missiles and smart bombs are going to be severely depleted and what stocks do remain probably aren't sitting in storage in CONUS. Would enough of those weapons or even properly equipped aircraft be available to do the job the first time without having to go back?

[Panther Al]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

All the Soviets have to do is link up with units in Canada. A possibility earlier in the game, but less and less likely once Mexico falls apart. Even if the Soviets can get to the Pacific coast they've got a chance of seizing a few ships and sailing to link up with friendly units. Over in the Caribbean there's almost no chance what with the high intensity of naval warfare in the early part of the war and theorised continued limited amount of shipping later (the Civgov sponsored mission to Yugoslavia as an example).
Canada/Alaska might not be home, but it's a damn sight closer than Cuba was and much less of a nuclear target (the main reason the Cubans "asked" them to leave in the first place)!

Leg, I think you've been watching Red Dawn a little too much...

A single division, no matter how strong, hasn't a chance of pushing from the Texas/OK area up into the the northern Pacific NW. Early in the game its even less of a chance - They would have two basic routes open to them: Go north, and then cross the Rockies up in Idaho, or go west and cross the divide in Arizona, and push up through Cali and through Oregon and Washington State.

Now the first one would be, in theory, easier to push northwards along the great plaines - save for the fact that the area plays to the strengths of US Equipment - IE: If you can see it, you can hit it. And if you can hit it, you can kill it. And if they get to the point where they hang left, you have perhaps the hardest roughest part of the Rocky Mountains to sneak through - an area where large formations can slide through passes that can be counted on one hand.

The Second would be a little easier: The mountains there are relatively easy to slip through, and pushing north along the coast, is in theory, easier. However, its along the coast, and easier for the US to move forces hither and there to block it.

But it all boils down to milage. Its just too far. To go from say, Tulsa OK to Seattle is 2013 miles. Unsupported, unable to get replacement supplies, and forced to live of the land - in an area known in parts as Badlands - I just can't see how thats doable.

[Legbreaker]

But they're not just a single Division are they?
They've got the Mexican military down in the south, plus their own Soviet units up in the north pushing south.
And what is resisting them? Just a couple of US reserve units.

Division Cuba might not have much of a chance to link up with friendly units to the north, but it's more of a chance than they have wishing for shipping to take them back home across the even more hostile Atlantic. It all comes down to the lesser of two bad choices for the Division commander.

[Matt Wiser]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Would you even need to use nukes? Would a few cruise missiles with conventional warheads, or a couple of sabotage strikes not do almost as well?
Carried out at a critical moment, it could absolutely paralyse the Mexican advance and perhaps cause them to fall back to secure their supply lines. Combine it with troubles at home and those rail nexus may never be repaired (at least before the invasion collapsed anyway).

Not only is it unlikely there's enough conventional munitions to do the job, but it's becoming time-critical. SOF may also not be available, and rail yards are kinda too big for an SF A-Team. The object of the exercise here is to neutralize the facilities so that the invasion sputters to a halt, and that repair time is going to be....lengthy. There's no other choice. Thus CINC-SAC receives his orders, and several dial-a-yield B-61s get dropped.....

[Legbreaker]

That may be true, however how likely is it that US commanders (especially the President who I believe is supposed to authorise their use) would resort to nukes in virtually their own back yard if they can possibly avoid it?
A couple of B-52's loaded with simple bombs might be enough to get the job done and it's not like they lack the range to strike from wherever they're based. Perhaps a conventional strike(s) to begin with and only use nukes if that doesn't do the job? Could therefore have a couple of targets still non-irradiated that way.

[Matt Wiser]

This is '98: General Cummings and the JCS are the de facto government. CivGov hasn't yet been formed. The Joint Chiefs see a military situation on the southern border that cannot be solved via conventional means alone. Not to mention that SAC's remaining bombers by this time are likely dedicated nuclear strike platforms. The objective is threefold: blast Mexican supply lines to such a degree that effective restoration is almost impossible, force the invasion to a standstill, and to punish the Mexican Government for crossing the border in the first place. The latter is accomplished by a ALCM strike on the Presidential Palace on the "low" yield setting (20 KT). And with five weapons, six at the most, those objectives are accomplished. There's still Mexican forces north of the border, but now they're split into factions, and hopefully can be dealt with in the future.

[Legbreaker]

President Munson was relieved on the 19th of May 1998. His successor soon succumbed to heart failure, and his successor committed suicide.

The Mexicans sent their army north on the 2nd of June, just two weeks after Munson was relieved.

We do not know how long Munsons two successors lasted, but surely it was more than a fortnight for both of them combined?

There was no Milgov or Civgov until around the 19th of April 1999, well after the Mexicans were stopped at Red River (autumn 1998?). According to the books, there is no mention of nukes (either way). Soon after the Mexicans/Soviets were stopped, the Mexican civil war broke out and Mexicans fell to fighting amongst themselves rendering the necessity of nukes on logistical (and pretty much any other) targets a pointless exercise.

It would therefore seem to be a fairly small window of opportunity for nukes to be used, however the main world history (V1 refs book and V2.x BYB) states

As the autumnal rains begin, NATO and the Pact Initiate a short and weak second nuclear exchange, directed primarily at surviving industrial centers in the United Kingdom and Italy.

The timing could work for nuke strikes at Mexico, even though not specifically mentioned, but I'm still unconvinced they'd be needed.

[Webstral]

Matt brings up an important point regarding the US response to the Mexican invasion. It’s 1998. Four guys, all senior military men, are running the United State s of America. One of them is first among peers. The United States has been brought to its knees by nuclear action. The entire global order has been disrupted—even for countries that haven’t been touched by nuclear fire. It’s difficult for us to know the frame of mind of the Joint Chiefs, and yet it’s hard to say how they would respond to the Mexican invasion without having a decent understanding.

There is a case to be made for action running the gamut from conventional strikes against the enemy’s logistical system to a massive strategic nuclear attack on Mexico. A tiny number of people make the decision. Logic certainly plays a part, but the frame of mind of men who have been under unprecedented stress for a year may play an even larger part.

Assuming that the US is not responsible for nuclear strikes against Mexican oil, the Joint Chiefs understand that the Mexicans have been duped by the Soviets. One can argue that lingering Mexican resentment about a raft of issues going back to the Mexican-American War play their part. Nonetheless, the Mexican invasion is not the action of a neighbor playing out ages-old hostilities, such as Russo-Polish or German-Polish issues. It’s bad, but it’s an aberration.

All this said, the surest means of restoring the situation is to turn the twenty largest Mexican population centers into irradiated ruin. Given that a single boomer can accomplish this mission (and it’s mid-1998), I daresay destruction of said cities is within Milgov’s capacity. Yet the Joint Chiefs don’t kill 60% of the population of Mexico. Why not?

At the other end of the spectrum, you have the option of conventional strikes against the Mexican logistical system. Assuming that a few precision-guided weapons and platforms are left, the destruction of a handful of rail bridges ought to do the trick. You don’t even have to go after rail hubs to sever the rail connections between the front and the Mexican interior. We can’t rule this option out entirely because GDW is silent on the subject.

One reason not to go the conventional route, though, is psychology. A nuke makes a statement. A nuke tells Mexico that it could get much, much worse for them. A nuke very near a city is hard to ignore.

Of course, the Mexicans don’t seem to get the message, do they? We know from the printed materials that the Mexican Army stays in the US right through the end of 2000 at least. We know as well that five brigades are sent to Texas in 1999 to support Fourth Mexican Army against the counteroffensive by Fifth US Army. Clearly, in 1999 the Mexicans intend to stay.

This brings us back to psychology. Clearly, there is a lot of thinking going on that is not addressed at all in the printed materials. GDW seems to have intended it to be this way. At various points in time I have tried to imagine what the Mexicans hoped to accomplish and how they hoped to accomplish it. My ideas are only one possibility.

[Raellus]

Zimmeran Telegram c.1917 = Zhukov Telegram c. 1997?

Might the Mexicans just be trying to take back some or all of the territories they lost to the U.S.A. in the mid-to-late 19th century?

Considering how hard pressed the U.S. already was when Mexico invaded, and adding in the already prodigal use of nuclear weapons in other theaters (as James already pointed out, using small nukes probably didn't seem like such a big deal anymore), and recognizing that Mexico didn't have the capacity to retaliate in kind, a tactical nuclear strike against at least one major road/rail node in Northern Mexico makes a lot of strategic and operational sense. It would blunt any Mexican drive but seriously impeding their logistical capabilities (already pretty sketchy), as well as sending a strong message to the Mexican government. And it would allow the American government, such as it is, more time to organize a strong [enough] conventional response.

[ArmySGT.]

This thread reminded me to look and see if Milsketch has an update.

Yes, my June 2010 edition is now the February 2012 edition with more NATO standard graphics available.

Why they chose not to name the graphics and have them only numbered I will never understand.

[Olefin]

Pushing the Mexicans out of Texas clearly should be a very high priority for MilGov - to me its the reason why the history in Howling Wildnerness makes no sense as it specifially applies to the 49th and to Texas and Oklahoma in general - the US needs oil and Texas has it in abundance in wells that were capped but not destroyed (per Red Star, Lone Star) but somehow they never get around to getting those men to where they can at least take bacj part of central and southern Texas, let alone defend some of the last remaining refineries for that oil.

plus Mexican forces arent exactly formidable - if you look at their 2000 order of battle they are highly fragmented, low on AFV's and very susceptible to playing one off versus the other - but with 43,000 plus troops sent home the US never manages to push them out of Texas, let alone the native Texans push them out? (i.e. according to 2300 Texas is part of Mexico for almost a hundred years)

after all the US still has nukes as well as cruise missiles and at least some aircraft that can deliver them - so why isnt Mexico City, Monterrey, etc.. all big smoking holes in the ground?

and the Red Star, Lone Star module itself basically says that Texas is one its way to throwing the Mexicans at least partially out - i.e. Kingsley being the first President of the Lone Star Republic is not just foreshadowed its basically in BOLD as a fact -

resolving the situation in Texas is one big reason I wish that somehow the Twilight 2000 Official game could be started again - or at least some kind of statement by the orginal authors on what was going to happen there say between 2001-2005 to show what they intended to happen there

The whole Mexico attacking the US in many ways doesnt seem that well thought out - especially with the fact that their logistics are so bad (mentioned in both modules and Challenge Magazine) that I dont know how they are even keeping their guys supplied with ammo enough to fight off the native Texans let alone the US forces

oh and I dont mean thought out by the authors but since they wargamed it I mean thought out as to why Mexico as a country would have invaded the US in the first place unless they were counting on the US falling apart to keep them from getting vaporized - i.e. you dont invade a sovereign nation that has nukes, gas shells, etc.. when you dont have them unless you have some kind of real ace in the hole - and Division Cuba really isnt that

its one thing to do a raid on the US and then pull back and hit hard any punitive force coming across the Rio Grande and say why are you wasting your men on us instead of Russia - its another to try to reverse the Mexican American War and hold territory.

(keep in mind that Texans in general are some of the best armed civilians in the US - I can only imagine how outgunned some Mexican and even Soviet troops would be by many average Texan citizens)

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Webstral

It’s 1998. Four guys, all senior military men, are running the United State s of America.

But are they? Munson is still there in charge just a fortnight before Mexico steps over the border. He's followed by two other civilians who last an unknown period of time.
Perhaps they are in charge towards the end of the year, but it seems exceptionally unlikely in the first days and perhaps even weeks of the Mexican campaign.

And that leads to another question - what actually becomes of Munson? All we know is he's "relieved". It's quite possible he's still alive somewhere and if he was to recover, might just have a strong claim on the country. It's not like he actually resigned or died...

[Webstral]

President Munson is an interesting issue. I must confess that I’d never given his fate after being relieved any thought until Leg brought it up.

As far as the timing of the takeover of the Joint Chiefs, Leg is right that there is no specific reference to when Munson’s two successors take over. Most importantly, Howling Wilderness gives us no date as to when the Secretary of Energy commits suicide. However, the first paragraph after the heading “The Mexican and Soviet Invasions” tells us that the Joint Chiefs were governing the country as of 02 JUN 98. In the absence of evidence stating that either of Munson’s successors were still in power as of or after 02 JUN 98, I take the foregoing as evidence that by 02 JUN 98 the Secretary of State had his heart attack and the Secretary of Energy took her own life.

Still, we don’t know what happened to Munson. It’s an interesting question. How long after his breakdown does he survive? Being the last truly legitimate successor, Munson has the best claim to lead the nation. Unfortunately for him, this fact would make him very unpopular with both Milgov and Civgov. If Munson ends up in the protective custody of the Joint Chiefs after his breakdown and somehow survives through 2001, then either he is legitimately incompetent to lead or has been declared so at the behest of the Joint Chiefs. Either way, it’s unlikely he’ll resurface. If he is sufficiently competent to show to the public for the purposes of supporting Milgov, then he’s sufficiently competent to lead (otherwise his support doesn’t mean anything).

Still, there’s an outside chance that the Joint Chiefs are holding Munson in case he does recover sufficiently to lead. This idea begs more interesting questions. What criteria must be met for the Joint Chiefs to bring Munson out from under wraps, knowing that if they do so he will assume the presidency? This is asking a lot of the loyalty of the Joint Chiefs to the pre-war chain of command, but this level of loyalty isn’t entirely outside the realm of possibility. A good novel might be written showing the thought processes of the Joint Chiefs as Munson increasingly shows that he might resume the presidency.

It’s also possible that Civgov has him in protective custody, though I find this prospect more remote than the idea that Milgov is holding Munson. If Civgov has Munson, then they are playing the same game as outlined above. If Munson is competent to lead, then Civgov would unveil him when they think it is to their advantage. The twist here is that while Broward would hate the idea, the rest of Congress might support it. No skin off their noses, so to speak. And Milgov would have no further claims to independent power, though they might deny that Munson was in good enough condition to lead.

It’s also possible that a third party has been hiding Munson. It’s hard to see that either Milgov or Civgov would allow themselves to be subjected to the authority of Munson if he were to resurface in 2001. In all likelihood, they would deny his mental competence and drive on. Still, if Munson somehow were to find himself in the hands of a strong cantonment, a third claimant to executive authority of the US could emerge. This seems unlikely, but it would be good storytelling.

All very interesting. I’m surprised I never thought about it. Good job, Leg.

Edit: I added p.9 of Howling Wilderness for those who don't have access to it.