OT: Nuclear Situation in Korea

[Webstral]

In an effort to look at things without my usual rose-colored glasses, I’ve thought of a middle ground possibility for the nuclear situation in Korea—assuming that the North Koreans do in fact have one or more nuclear warheads that can be launched on a missile they currently field. We talk about extremes; i.e., if the North Koreans pop a nuke, we’ll turn the DPRK into a parking lot. Therefore, there will be tons of nukes or none. Kim may have a more nuanced thought process. Let’s suppose that he actually nukes a target—an important target, like a US base in Japan. The US response may not be total escalation. Even if the DPRK has no more long-range nukes, or even if we are confident we can get them all before launch, large-scale use of nuclear weapons in Korea would have very significant repercussions for our allies. Fallout and other radioactive debris would affect the ROK and Japan, at the very least. Also, a strike package in excess of 50 devices would cause stupendous loss of life in North Korea. Our mismanagement of the occupation of Iraq notwithstanding, I hope that we are still a moral people not inclined to the kind of wholesale slaughter the Allies turned on German and Japanese cities in WW2 if such slaughter can at all be avoided. For these reasons, we should not opt to “turn North Korea into a parking lot” regardless of the North Korean ability to continue a nuclear (or simply WMD) exchange.

However, if the North Koreans possess additional deliverable nuclear weapons, then the situation changes completely. Massive retaliation by the US for the use of a single device by the North Koreans would lead fairly directly to the deployment of the remaining North Korean nuclear (and probably WMD) arsenal. Whether any additional US targets were hit or not, the ROK and Japan would suffer. Therefore, the most reasonable US response to a single nuclear strike by the DPRK is a single nuclear counterstroke of comparable yield against a comparable target. Even if Kim didn’t think of this himself, one of his advisors will have. After all, I thought of it—and I was the last one to realize that the female “interpreters” at the checkpoint who spoke little English were not actually interpreters.

Taken together, all of this means that a single-device nuclear exchange between the US and the DPRK may be part of an astronomically cynical effort by Kim to consolidate his power and wring supplies out of the international community. A single US nuclear strike against a North Korean target would demonstrate beyond all domestic North Korean argument that the US is eminently hostile to North Korea. This would silence all opposition, just as Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Iran solidified Khomeini’s power in Iran. At the same time, the nuclear attack against North Korea would be the rationale for refusing to negotiate on nuclear weapons in the future. The legions of nuclear casualties could be used to put pressure on the international community to provide humanitarian relief. Doubtless many countries would respond to that pressure, which would put the US in an awkward position. The North Koreans might even allow Western press into the strike zone for this purpose.

In the end, then, the use of a nuclear weapon by the DPRK need not lead to the demise of Kim, the communist regime, or the DPRK. It might actually strengthen his hand domestically and confuse the issue internationally. Unfortunately, such an event also might reinforce dangerous ideas about limited nuclear war.

[Raellus]

I concur. It bears keeping in mind that the U.S. has a variety of nuclear weapons including small yield bombs designed to destroy hardened subterranean bunkers without doing too much collateral damage. My guess is that we've got a fairly specific target list of suspected nuclear weapons and research facilities and command and control targets, a couple (or few) of which will be hit with "precision" strikes by said smallish nukes, probably dropped by B2s. I'd be willing to bet that those B2s would be in the air the minute that the PRKs launch their missile[s].

Any nuclear strategy for Korea has to take into consideration its proximity to China. China certainly wouldn't be pleased with any American retaliation that turns the PRK into a glass parking lot. This is why I doubt that a PRK nuclear attack would provoke a massive U.S. nuclear retaliation.

[kato13]

I would hope that China would have made it abundantly clear the the DPRK that ANY unprovoked nuclear attack would not go over well with them.

They don't want a nuclear ROK or Japan and that would almost be assured by the scenario proposed. (If the DPRK survived, which I doubt it would)

[Cdnwolf]

My thoughts are .... how deep do you go to survive a nuclear attack? North Korea is riddled with deep underground complexes and cities even... and they have had 50+ years to work on them since the end of the Korea War. If you ever read Dale Browns Fatal Terrain compare how Taiwan was prepared for nuclear war by building massive underground complexes - now multiply it by a country the size of Korea...

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by kato13

I would hope that China would have made it abundantly clear the the DPRK that ANY unprovoked nuclear attack would not go over well with them.

One would hope. However, China can only wield so much influence. Internal power struggles can trump foreign considerations. I don't have enough information to make an accurate forecast, so I'm stuck thinking about the options for a worst case scenario.

[mikeo80]

The only problem with trying to apply Western logic to North Korea is that there is no logic.

IMHO, the "Supreme Leader" or whatever he calls himself today, is one of the "0.1%" of N. Korea society. The rest are just peasants, there to do his bidding. If they die in a US counter strike, he will be safe, probably 100 feet down in some hole. That means more food for him. (Please notice that he is VERY plump, while those around him are small and skinny.) The only way to get to him is a direct strike on his person by something like Seal Team Six.

So, in my view, IF the Norks touch off A nuke, I agree with others, we will probably strike with A nuke. Then we will see.....

Hoping for the best, prepairing for the worst.....

My $0.02

Mike

[.45cultist]

Japan can assemble several dozen from componants if I remember correctly.

[stormlion1]

Originally Posted by .45cultist

Japan can assemble several dozen from componants if I remember correctly.

Japan has been a few screwdriver turns from a completed Nuclear weapon since the 80's I think. Only reason they haven't is the unpopularity of the weapon among their populace.

[Webstral]

A nuclear Japan means a nuclear ROK. Who knows where it will end after that?

[Schone23666]

(Hello all, haven't posted in a while but I'm back.)

Unfortunately, I think the nuclear cat is already out of the bag at this point...

[natehale1971]

There is one use of a nuclear warhead that hasn't really been brought up...

The North Koreans have all kinds of tunnels they've built under many of the South Korean areas under the DMZ... while i'm not worried about the missiles tipped with Nuclear Warheads just yet. I have been looking into the possiblty of a nuclear warhead being placed in one of the tunnels under Soul and being set off.

Now this is actually a 'safe' way to set off a nuke... since the majority of the radition would be trapped underground. It would also cause massive damage to the city above the detontation. Heck, a regular detonation would mean that there would still be a few buildings left standing and would be safe to use. But an underground detonation on the other hand... would cause even the buidlings still standing to be questionale for long-term useage.

it's been this use that has me worried... because even just the THREAT of it can be made without the general public knowing about it. It could easily become a dagger being held with the tip pressed against the heart of the South Korean government... and could end up being used to force the South Koreans to unify with the North with the North Korean government being the one who annexes the healthy southern half.

That's what has me worried.

[Webstral]

Now that's thinking outside the box! I like it. That's a very long tunnel, but I suppose the North Koreans have had a while to work on the project.

[kato13]

My fear is that a mini sub delivers a bomb to Inchon. I don't believe that the DPRK could deliver a bomb via a plane or missile (too large of a device), so that leaves either a ship/sub or truck.

A hit on Incheon (costal) would screw up the Seoul Airport, International shipping, Refining, Power Generation, part of Seoul's mass transit system, and given prevailing winds would place in danger the lives of at least 3 million people.

I am not sure if a mini sub could work its way up the Han river, but if Seoul gets hit, that is how I would expect the DPRK to do it. A hit on the Gangnam district (yes the one mentioned in the song) would cut out the heart of the city. Seoul averages about 45,000 people per square mile so causalities would be enormous.

As far as tunnels I could see an underground nuke being used to disrupt the border defenses, but it would be really hard to dig far enough for an underground fission device to cause a huge amount of damage to Seoul.

[Targan]

A 50km tunnel would be a big job but I guess the NKs have had 60 years. I assume the South Koreans go to great lengths to identify tunnels from the north.

[Webstral]

Does anybody know how you find tunnels the owners don't want found? I know ground penetrating radar has come a fair distance since the US started trying to use it against the Vietnamese Communists, but I have no idea what the state of the art is. Can you use sonic technology?

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Webstral

Does anybody know how you find tunnels the owners don't want found? I know ground penetrating radar has come a fair distance since the US started trying to use it against the Vietnamese Communists, but I have no idea what the state of the art is. Can you use sonic technology?

I found an interesting link here in regards to that. It seems in regards to the tunnel problems underneath the 38th Parallel DMZ, narcotics shipping tunnels underneath the U.S. southern border, and the various tunnels and caves used by insurgents in places such as Afghanistan, the U.S. has been continuing plenty of research on this.

http://www.agu.org/meetings/sm06/sm0...m06_NS21A.html

The Text is pretty small though, fair warning. May need to copy-paste and use a larger text size to read it.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Schone23666

The Text is pretty small though, fair warning. May need to copy-paste and use a larger text size to read it.

In most browsers <CTRL>+ will increase font size.

[natehale1971]

When i was in college, we had a student who was from South Korea, and they talked about the Army of the Republic of Korea having found tunnels that the North Koreans had been building... and that gave me the ideas of the use of tunnels as a delivery system for a nuclear device. Especially after reading all the materials about the underground nuclear testing.

that any underground explosion under a city, like Soul... would end up being the equvilent of a massive earthquake. And due to the things i've been reading about the construction problems of buildings in South Korea, there are still major buildings that have been built that would fall down with little effort from what i had read and gleaned from talkign with the South Korean student.

it doesn't sound like it'd be so destructive... but iif done the right way, it'd be really nasty and it could at first look like a natural disaster.

[stormlion1]

In the Novel Red Phoenix there was a trick they used to drill several holes in rock down a few feet, fill it with water till it was at the top then just watch it. When using explosives underground the vibrations caused the water to jump out of the hole or just be disturbed if further away. Not sure how accurate that would be, but a quick and dirty way to find tunnels being built in rock.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Red Phoenix is a great novel - if a bit dated - about a potential Korean War. I'd love to read an "updated" version...I think the NKs would find themselves in a very bad position facing divisions of K1A1s and K1A2s, and K2 tanks.