OT: Flight MH370

[RN7]

Anyone being following this?

Man what are they on. Malaysia loses track of an aircraft the size of a Boeing 777 in the South China Sea that then turns back and fly's across Malaysia and then fly's off to God knows were and they along with Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam didn't track it and have no idea were it is?

Anyone have any suggestions?

[kalos72]

Aliens?

[Cdnwolf]

EMP from the island from the show "Lost"?

[SionEwig]

Originally Posted by kalos72

Aliens?

Or time/dimensional portals. I do have to wonder what JJ Abrahms thinks about it.

[Cdnwolf]

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0097883/

[Rainbow Six]

Yeah, I've been following it...there is a huge thread over on www.flyertalk.com about it (as in approx 300 pages of replies - they've already archived it once). As to what may have happened, the BBC has a decent article on some of the theories being put forward

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26609687

[Targan]

I've been following this story too. In my professional life I'm a supervisor at a government media monitoring unit so the news is kind of my thing. This is a really strange case. Solid information has been really slow to trickle out. There's still not really enough data to make a solid prediction. Here's my take on things:

The aircraft's transponder was probably deliberately switched off. I'm no airline pilot but I guess that can be done from the cockpit. The system that sends engineering data back to home base probably can't be switched off from the cockpit (maybe from the avionics bay below the cockpit?) and whoever had control of the aircraft either didn't know about that system, didn't know how to turn it off or didn't want to leave the cockpit to disable it.

The aircraft's movements after the transponder was switched off seem to have been deliberate. It's looking like someone initiated a radical course change and then flew the aircraft nap of earth on an entirely new heading (or as close to nap of earth as you effectively can fly a commercial passenger jet). That sort of action suggests that someone wanted to land the plane intact and undetected. Why would you bother to do all that if you were just going to crash the plane on purpose? Makes no sense.

There has been some suggestion that the engineering data updates back to home base continued past the time that the aircraft would have run out of fuel if still in flight. Logic would suggest that this means the aircraft was already on the ground somewhere and the APU was on. The APU could continue to run for hours longer than the main engines.

But then the waters get muddied even further by stories like this:
Oil rig worker says he saw Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 burst into flames

Conclusions: It either blew up in flight (terrorist attack or catastrophic malfunction, who knows?) and hasn't been found because there's a whole lot of empty ocean out there, or it was hijacked by a person/persons unknown and was landed somewhere, probably in SW Asia. If it was all done by a terrorist organisation, why no claims of responsibility? Why no intel suggesting an op was being prepared or was in play? I'm not big on conspiracy theories at all, but this case is a really strange one. I'm almost prepared to believe it was a government or corporate black op. That would explain why no-one has said anything about why it was done. Unfortunately, if that is the case, the passengers and crew may end up dead anyway, to tie up loose ends.

Please, I welcome the above thoughts being critiqued. What have I missed?

Edit: Just had a look through the links others have posted. Some really interesting theories there too.

[mikeo80]

Um, you missed one idea.

The little green guys in charge of the Bermuda Triangle were on vacation, and decided to work while on leave.

My $0.02

Mike

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Targan

I've been following this story too. In my professional life I'm a supervisor at a government media monitoring unit so the news is kind of my thing. This is a really strange case. Solid information has been really slow to trickle out. There's still not really enough data to make a solid prediction. Here's my take on things:

The aircraft's transponder was probably deliberately switched off. I'm no airline pilot but I guess that can be done from the cockpit. The system that sends engineering data back to home base probably can't be switched off from the cockpit (maybe from the avionics bay below the cockpit?) and whoever had control of the aircraft either didn't know about that system, didn't know how to turn it off or didn't want to leave the cockpit to disable it.

The aircraft's movements after the transponder was switched off seem to have been deliberate. It's looking like someone initiated a radical course change and then flew the aircraft nap of earth on an entirely new heading (or as close to nap of earth as you effectively can fly a commercial passenger jet). That sort of action suggests that someone wanted to land the plane intact and undetected. Why would you bother to do all that if you were just going to crash the plane on purpose? Makes no sense.

There has been some suggestion that the engineering data updates back to home base continued past the time that the aircraft would have run out of fuel if still in flight. Logic would suggest that this means the aircraft was already on the ground somewhere and the APU was on. The APU could continue to run for hours longer than the main engines.

But then the waters get muddied even further by stories like this:
Oil rig worker says he saw Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 burst into flames

Conclusions: It either blew up in flight (terrorist attack or catastrophic malfunction, who knows?) and hasn't been found because there's a whole lot of empty ocean out there, or it was hijacked by a person/persons unknown and was landed somewhere, probably in SW Asia. If it was all done by a terrorist organisation, why no claims of responsibility? Why no intel suggesting an op was being prepared or was in play? I'm not big on conspiracy theories at all, but this case is a really strange one. I'm almost prepared to believe it was a government or corporate black op. That would explain why no-one has said anything about why it was done. Unfortunately, if that is the case, the passengers and crew may end up dead anyway, to tie up loose ends.

Please, I welcome the above thoughts being critiqued. What have I missed?

Edit: Just had a look through the links others have posted. Some really interesting theories there too.

The problem with the oil rig workers account of an aircraft bursting into flames is that MH570 is also supposed to have been tracked heading back across the Malaysian Peninsula somewhere over southern Thailand and then heads into the Andaman Sea before it disappears. Everything seems to point towards deliberate interference with the aircraft's transponder system and a changing of its course and altitude. Perhaps it was an attempted high jacking and after the transponder was disabled there was a fight and people including the pilot were killed or injured and the aircraft flew on autopilot until it went down somewhere in the Indian Ocean. Who knows.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by RN7

Everything seems to point towards deliberate interference with the aircraft's transponder system and a changing of its course and altitude. Perhaps it was an attempted high jacking and after the transponder was disabled there was a fight and people including the pilot were killed or injured and the aircraft flew on autopilot until it went down somewhere in the Indian Ocean. Who knows.

Indeed. Whole lotta ocean. May never be found.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

The pilot incurred too many debts, he needed to get cash and fast...







(Fake ad posted to craigslist but since removed)

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Targan

I've been following this story too. In my professional life I'm a supervisor at a government media monitoring unit so the news is kind of my thing. This is a really strange case. Solid information has been really slow to trickle out. There's still not really enough data to make a solid prediction. Here's my take on things:

The aircraft's transponder was probably deliberately switched off. I'm no airline pilot but I guess that can be done from the cockpit. The system that sends engineering data back to home base probably can't be switched off from the cockpit (maybe from the avionics bay below the cockpit?) and whoever had control of the aircraft either didn't know about that system, didn't know how to turn it off or didn't want to leave the cockpit to disable it.

The aircraft's movements after the transponder was switched off seem to have been deliberate. It's looking like someone initiated a radical course change and then flew the aircraft nap of earth on an entirely new heading (or as close to nap of earth as you effectively can fly a commercial passenger jet). That sort of action suggests that someone wanted to land the plane intact and undetected. Why would you bother to do all that if you were just going to crash the plane on purpose? Makes no sense.

There has been some suggestion that the engineering data updates back to home base continued past the time that the aircraft would have run out of fuel if still in flight. Logic would suggest that this means the aircraft was already on the ground somewhere and the APU was on. The APU could continue to run for hours longer than the main engines.

But then the waters get muddied even further by stories like this:
Oil rig worker says he saw Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 burst into flames

Conclusions: It either blew up in flight (terrorist attack or catastrophic malfunction, who knows?) and hasn't been found because there's a whole lot of empty ocean out there, or it was hijacked by a person/persons unknown and was landed somewhere, probably in SW Asia. If it was all done by a terrorist organisation, why no claims of responsibility? Why no intel suggesting an op was being prepared or was in play? I'm not big on conspiracy theories at all, but this case is a really strange one. I'm almost prepared to believe it was a government or corporate black op. That would explain why no-one has said anything about why it was done. Unfortunately, if that is the case, the passengers and crew may end up dead anyway, to tie up loose ends.

Please, I welcome the above thoughts being critiqued. What have I missed?

Edit: Just had a look through the links others have posted. Some really interesting theories there too.

Sky News this morning was revisiting the theory that there may have been a fire (or some other incident, but not terrorism) in the cockpit that neccessitated the shutting down of the transponder and other systems by the pilots (not as an act of sabotage but to try and save the aircraft) followed by a turn towards land to try and make an emergency landing, however for whatever reason pilots were incapacitated resulting in the plane flying on under autopilot until it ran out of fuel somewhere in the Indian Ocean. Apparently several aviation "experts" have asserted that this is one of the more plausible explanations. There are also reports that the plane heading south rather than north is supported by Australian data from the Jindalee radar network.

I know that theory contradicts some of the "facts" that have been released but there have already been several contradictions and about turns since the plane first went missing. I wouldn't call it a conspiracy theory per se, but it seems to me that some Governments may not be comfortable with sharing all the data they have either because it exposes how ineffective their systems are (in the event they couldn't / didn't trace the flight) or exposes that they have capabilities that others don't know about (for example one report states that the Jindalee radar has a greater range than its officially declared 3,000km).

[RN7]

Their now saying that MH370 was seen flying over the Maldives on March 8th roughly 8 hours after it last made contact. It wasn't picked up by any radar but was supposedly seen by many locals flying very low. The theory of terrain masking; avoiding radar by positioning the aircraft low enough to the ground to allow the earth mask the airplane from radar waves; is now being circled about. The Maldives are due east of the African east coast and Somalia.

[Rainbow Six]

I read about the Maldives sightings earlier but I thought they had been discounted by various parties. Distance from the Maldives to Mogadishu appears to be roughly the same as London to Athens (or New York to Denver); I'm fairly sure that based on the fuel that the plane was carrying it didn't have the range to get from its last point of contact to Somalia (or anywhere else in Africa). Yemen was also out of its range.

[Rainbow Six]

This map is posted on another site and shows what is believed to be the maximum range of the plane from its last point of contact just off the Malaysian coast (the red circle). The red dots are known airfields capable of taking a 777

[kato13]

I'm actually considering a poll on this one.

These are some of the options I have seen suggested.

Pilot and/or Copilot Suicide
Hijacking for Terrorism
Mechanical/Electrical Failure/Fire
Hijacking for Ransom
Hijacking for Theft of Aircraft (Generally for future terrorism)
Hijacking for Cargo
Shot Down (Military)
Shot Down (Terrorist)
Dharma Initiative/Aliens/Other

Are there any others?

[Rainbow Six]

Hijacking in order to steal cargo. As far as I know cargo manifest has not been released to the public and there are question marks as to whether it was carrying more cargo weight than might be considered normal (justification for this is that some passengers were only accepted on a standby basis although the flight was nowhere near full). That has led to speculation in some parts that it might have been carrying gold bullion.

[Cdnwolf]

They think they found debris SOUTH of Perth Australia... Targan... go out there and check will you.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Cdnwolf

They think they found debris SOUTH of Perth Australia... Targan... go out there and check will you.

I'll go and have a look. Someone put a slab in the esky, I'll be back soon.

[WallShadow]

My take?
Land aircraft at undisclosed location.
Repaint, refit aircraft.
Rework transponder and black box.
Launch and fly to target area along a flight's expected path.
Reenact 9/11.

Of course the cost of the handwavium content of this plan may become prohibitive....

[Schone23666]

Okay, my take... (and maybe this theory's already been covered somewhere)

Some government arranged the whole damn thing to see, or rather, get a very rough glimpse of whatever radar and naval capabilities the various countries involved in the rather large search area possess. One opinion article posited that whatever country actually found this aircraft, or remnants of it would have bragging rights and would probably garner some interest in it's sea and air capabilities. It's worth noting that there's been a gradual escalation of tensions in this area, something that's simmering for a while now over the Spratly Islands and who has claim to what, along with China asserting a bigger defense posture and making "historical" claims to both the Islands and the China seas...I guess the same way Putin's made his claim to annex the Crimean peninsula. Oh no, wait, he's doing it to "protect" Russian citizens, my bad...

Of course, this theory/conspiracy wouldn't be very likely from the get-go unless the conspirators were competing for "Dumbass of the Year" award, since there's MUCH more subtle and quiet ways to get info on the capabilities of said countries via HUMINT and ELINT, without all the muss and fuss.

Plus is it surprising that not everyone is too forthcoming with certain details on their radar assets during the search, especially in light of recent geopolitical events? It wouldn't surprise me if the JORN system Australia's using actually performs very well beyond what's actually published. The ROTHR system we use that's similiar but on a larger scale...well, I don't think I'm volunteering any secret info if I were to state that you can see very well all the way into South America with that system, easily. Now, they've continued tinkering with the ROTHR system and come up with some interesting applications, but I can't go into details there unless I want a friendly neighborhood visit from the FBI, among others.

[Sanjuro]

Please, no poll. It would be in poor taste.

[stormlion1]

My take is one of two things happened. One is that there was a malfunction of some kind that shut down a lot of the electronics and the crew was flying blind and began to look for anywhere to land near where help could be found. Passed over uninhabited land and decided not to attempt to land or couldn't and they just flew off back to sea and kept looking. Eventually they played lawn dart and went into the sea. The lack of debris makes me believe they flew low and stalled out over the ocean and it landed relatively intact then sank. Main question is did the passengers get out and are floating about or did the plane flood too fast and take them to the bottom.

Second theory is the plane was taken over by terrorists of some stripe, flown to some land mass to refuel and then flown to Africa somewhere or up into southern Asia somewhere where the planes crew and passengers were removed, the plane stripped for parts and then the parts were held for later sale and the passengers and crew either killed or separated for ransom later. Things may be too hot right now due to all the media coverage that there just sitting on them. Other option is the crew and passengers were broken up into usable and non-usable people and the non-usable were killed and bodys dumped and usable separated to various places too work, males to mines, fields, etc, females to brothels. Things like that.

Not a pretty picture either way but one of the two is my take on what happened.

[Schone23666]

On a side note, it wouldn't surprise me if this turns into another unsolved mystery like the Mary Celeste, or Navy Flight 19 in the Triangle.

[Sanjuro]

My best guess: onboard fire.
First action is to turn off everything electrical you can (trying to pinpoint which electrical system is the source takes too long). While you're doing that the other guy points the aircraft at the nearest runway and tries to get there fast. In this case, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swissair_Flight_111 , time from first smell of smoke to impact was 21 minutes. If you get a chance to tell ATC, good, but that is low priority.
The reported climb to 45000 feet could have been an attempt to starve the fire of oxygen- by the look of things this may have worked, but either this or some combination of fumes killed everyone on board. The aeroplane then flew on autopilot in the last direction it happened to be pointing until it ran out of fuel.
Please note, this is just a hypothesis which appears to tie in with some of the reported radar observations. Until the CVR and FDR are found (if they ever are) it is impossible to tell. There was, however, a cargo of lithium batteries on board.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Targan

I'll go and have a look. Someone put a slab in the esky, I'll be back soon.

So I swam out to where they found the wreckage but there's a 13-foot swell so it was slow going. I might go for a dive when the weather calms down a bit... but most of the wreckage will be about 3 miles deep so I'm going to need a REALLY long snorkle.

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Targan

So I swam out to where they found the wreckage but there's a 13-foot swell so it was slow going. I might go for a dive when the weather calms down a bit... but most of the wreckage will be about 3 miles deep so I'm going to need a REALLY long snorkle.

Oh, c'mon Targan, ONLY a 13-foot swell? I'd thought you might've at least run into a Great White shark or two (or three, or four...)

[Raellus]

I just returned safely from a pair of transatlantic flights and have been following this story since it first broke. I don't really like flying in the first place but this incident- especially the enduring mystery of the whole thing- really made this last trip especially nerve-wracking.

Anyway, my first theory once it came out that the place flew on for another 6 hours or so, and crossed the Malaysian peninsula heading west, is that it was terrorism/air-piracy. Looking at a map, the plane could have easily made it to Sri Lanka (Tamil Tigers, perhaps?). From there, who knows.

Now, based on its current suspected crash location, it looks like either a failure of the plane's electronic systems (resulting in the pilots becoming lost) or flight crew suicide. The former seems more likely to me. For the pilot to have done himself in in such a fashion, one imagines that the rest of the flight crew would have figured out that something was up and stepped in to stop him. Also, that long of a flight would give a suicidal pilot a much greater chance to have second thoughts.

But, if it was a matter of getting lost, why head south to find a landing spot rather than north? I doubt that pilots are routinely trained in navigation using the stars or the sun but I don't think it would be that hard to orient the plane correctly, using either method, and head north to where you know the bulk of the Asian continent must lie. Flying south searching for... Australia? That just seems a lot riskier.

Now, I favor a hybrid explanation. I think it may have been a hijacking where a small terrorist team took out the flight crew (apparently the pilots were quite lax with cockpit security) with some nefarious, 9-11-ish intent but subsequently got lost after shutting off the various IFF and navigation systems and ran out of fuel over a remote stretch of the Indian Ocean. I really hope that they locate the black boxes and recover the data recorded. Only then we'll we learn what really happened.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I really hope that they locate the black boxes and recover the data recorded. Only then we'll we learn what really happened.

Unfortunately the voice recorders only store a 2 hours loop. So it is possible that there will be no useful information on it if there was any hypoxia event early on. The data recorder should have everything though. They will only ping for another 10 or so days though.

I was thinking that US subs might be able to pick up the pinging given how amazing their sonar is supposed to be, so that might have been a factor in the redirection of the search.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by kato13

Unfortunately the voice recorders only store a 2 hours loop. So it is possible that there will be no useful information on it if there was any hypoxia event early on. The data recorder should have everything though. They will only ping for another 10 or so days though.

I was thinking that US subs might be able to pick up the pinging given how amazing their sonar is supposed to be, so that might have been a factor in the redirection of the search.

I thought that the black box pings were radio, not audio?