Taiwan in T2K

[RN7]

Any ideas about the status of Taiwan after the Soviets invade China in 1995.

After the Soviets invade China the PRC is supported by the US, NATO and allied nations materially for the duration up until the nuclear strikes in late 1997. Taiwan under Nationalist Chinese control is an antagonist of Communist China who's security is guaranteed by the US. But the US is now allied to both China's, and the PRC is far more concerned about the threat from the Soviets than the remnant Kuomintang regime lying offshore in Taiwan. Would it be possible that both China's buried the hatchet and we see Kuomintang forces showing up in mainland China?

[pmulcahy11b]

Just a few ideas...Taiwan serves as an aircraft base, naval port, and general rest and resupply base for primarily US forces, who probably greatly outnumber the Taiwanese forces on the island at that point. They also receive a good amount of military aid (the Taiwanese have always had a wish list of American weapons and equipment that the US has been withholding from Taiwan due to political considerations).

The Taiwanese (and US) fight Russian aircraft and shipping, at the urging of the US. The Taiwanese do not commit any troops to the conflict, keeping them for home defense. After the Twilight War (well after the Twilight War, like in the 2020's at least), the US brokers talks that bring Taiwan into the rest of China, with "special considerations and systems" like China gives to Hong Kong. This is in recognition for their service in the Sino-Russian part of the Twilight War.

[Raellus]

The following assumes that the v1.0 timeline is being followed:

I think any participation in the war, albeit directly by sending troops to assist the beleaguered PLA, or by acting as a base for U.S. ships and aircraft, guarantees it a good nuking by the U.S.S.R.

I can see a desperate PLA accepting an offer of troops from Taiwan. As the Soviet juggernaut roles across Manchuria, what does the PRC have to lose? I'm not sure that Taiwan would make that offer, though. I think it depends on the government at the time. What are it's priorities? Patching things up with the mainland, or avoiding becoming an active belligerent in the 2nd Sino-Soviet War. I can see Taiwan making said offer as a way of burying the hatchet with the mainland, but that means going to war with the mighty U.S.S.R. I don't think the U.S. would sanction that (before the U.S.A. enters the war).

Later, when the U.S. joins the war, Taiwan might become more involved. But, again, this would make the island nation a big target. Taiwan might want to stay out of WWIII so badly, that they say no to their long-time ally, and decline U.S. requests to base aircraft and ships there.

I don't know if any there are any Taiwanese sites on the canonical nuke target lists. If not, this either suggests an oversight, or that Taiwan successfully stayed out of the war, positioning itself to be a major player in the post-WWIII world. Are there any clues as to Taiwan's fate in 2300?

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I don't know if any there are any Taiwanese sites on the canonical nuke target lists. If not, this either suggests an oversight, or that Taiwan successfully stayed out of the war, positioning itself to be a major player in the post-WWIII world. Are there any clues as to Taiwan's fate in 2300?

I have not seen any canon reference to Taiwan, although it may lie buried in the text of a sourcebook I have overlooked. In 2300AD which is derived from Twilight 2000 causes much argument here, Taiwan seems to be part of the successor Chinese nation of Canton as is Hong Kong.

In 2300AD China splits into three nations after Twilight,

1) Manchuria: One of the worlds great powers and Asia's dominant power. Manchuria declared its independence from the surviving central Chinese government after the war, and from its power base in Manchuria and Northern China seized Western China and Tibet, and also seems to control the southern part of the present Russian Far East, some of the former Soviet Central Asian states and possibly parts of India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. Its ruled by Emperors who claim decent from the ancient Manchu Royal dynasty. It is majority Han-Chinese but also includes many Tibetans, Mongols, Koreans and Russians and many others. Manchuria also dominates Korea and has bad relations with France, Japan and Russia and most of its neighbours.

2) Canton: A major power in Asia but less powerful than Manchuria. It controls most of the south of modern mainland China, and also Hong Kong and probably Taiwan. Majority Han Chinese its government is not stated but it is not a communist government so it may be descended from the Koumintang government of Taiwan than retook southern China after the Twilight, or from warlords who allied themselves to the Koumintang. Its more friendly with Western nations and Japan than Manchuria.

3) Modern China. An enigmatic state in central China sandwiched between Manchuria and Canton. Its Han Chinese but very underdeveloped and isolationist and possibly descended from original PRC who's territory was reduced by Manchuria and Canton. Seems to be a sort of 24th Century North Korea.

[Olefin]

I completely agree with RN7 that Canton is most likely the result of Taiwan re-invading the mainland after the war - especially when you look at the territory they occupy

Especially considering the fact that Taiwan's military would basically only be opposed by remnant Chinese units that most likely would have very few tanks or armored vehicles (I dont see many not being committed against the Soviets in Sinkiang, Manchuria and northern China during their war and thus a very big lack of them in the south of the country after the Soviet nuclear attack takes out the Chinese and ends that war in 1997)

I dont see the Soviets nuking Taiwan even if they were providing aid to China - the Taiwanese just arent a threat to them big enough to bother with - and frankly even the threat of being nuked would have been enough for Taiwan to stay out of the Soviet Chinese war - i.e. why risk annihilation for a country that up until the war was threatening to invade you

[Legbreaker]

During the war, I believe Taiwan gets nuked heavily, most likely by the USSR to deny it as a base for the US and allied troops, and possibly by the Chinese just out of spite (unlikely they'd have any spare warheads though).
Afterwards? Who's in the market for a slagged island nation?

[Olefin]

Sorry Leg but I dont see the Soviets nuking Taiwan - frankly its a zero sum game for them - Taiwan may not have given anything in the way of supplies to the mainland Chinese - mainly because in the years leading up to the war Red China spent its time threatening Taiwan with invasion and getting nuked if they didnt play ball - thats not really the way to buy friends when you need them

[Legbreaker]

Once the west entered the war, what have the Soviets got to loose?
An intact Taiwan makes for a pretty decent base to work from doesn't it, and it's location commands the major shipping lanes for virtually all surface traffic in the western Pacific.
No, leaving Taiwan intact, especially given they're a solid regional ally of the US, is just stupid.

[RN7]

Taiwan's position is a bit like the question of Japan being nuked or not. Its fairly important from an economic point but not nearly as important as Japan. But from its geographical location it is strategically important. Air and naval forces based in Taiwan can range over the South China Sea, the East China Sea, much of mainland China and into the Pacific. During the Second World War the island of Formosa (Taiwan) was heavily used by the Japanese as a base of operations for precisely this reason, and US forces heavily bombed Japanese bases in Formosa because of it.

Even if Taiwanese forces were not present on mainland China I would be certain that US air and naval forces would be based in Taiwan during the Sino-Soviet War and the first year of the Twilight War. I could not see Taiwan being blanketed with nuclear strikes by the Soviets, but certainly a few low yield nukes against a few ports and airfields to deny them to the Americans.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by RN7

I could not see Taiwan being blanketed with nuclear strikes by the Soviets, but certainly a few low yield nukes against a few ports and airfields to deny them to the Americans.

Yes, "slagged" might be just a bit extreme, but with the multitude of potential high value targets on the island, it certainly would be a nice place to try and scrape out a living afterwards!
We know Neutral countries and their facilities were targeted. That pushes the likelihood of Taiwan being attacked much further up the list.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by RN7

Even if Taiwanese forces were not present on mainland China I would be certain that US air and naval forces would be based in Taiwan during the Sino-Soviet War and the first year of the Twilight War. I could not see Taiwan being blanketed with nuclear strikes by the Soviets, but certainly a few low yield nukes against a few ports and airfields to deny them to the Americans.

Agreed. Unless Taiwan both refused to assist the PRC (either directly or as a transshipment point for war materials) AND refused to allow the U.S. to base military assets there once the U.S. entered the war, Taiwan would almost certainly get nuked by the Soviets. At the least, targets would be U.S. base sites and oil refineries. At the worst, Taiwan's manufacturing sector would get it too.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Agreed. Unless Taiwan both refused to assist the PRC (either directly or as a transshipment point for war materials) AND refused to allow the U.S. to base military assets there once the U.S. entered the war, Taiwan would almost certainly get nuked by the Soviets. At the least, targets would be U.S. base sites and oil refineries. At the worst, Taiwan's manufacturing sector would get it too.

I think you have to look at what happened to Thailand (or the lack of what happened to Thailand) as an indication of where the Soviets might not have used nukes - after all Thailand is a US ally and a great place to base US planes and ships - but you dont see nuke damage there - still I agree if you had US ships using one port a lot that port might just get a nice nuke saying hello to it

in general though unless the Taiwanese go out of their way to make themselves a target there are a lot better uses for Soviet nukes in Asia

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by RN7

Taiwan's position is a bit like the question of Japan being nuked or not. Its fairly important from an economic point but not nearly as important as Japan. But from its geographical location it is strategically important. Air and naval forces based in Taiwan can range over the South China Sea, the East China Sea, much of mainland China and into the Pacific. During the Second World War the island of Formosa (Taiwan) was heavily used by the Japanese as a base of operations for precisely this reason, and US forces heavily bombed Japanese bases in Formosa because of it.

Even if Taiwanese forces were not present on mainland China I would be certain that US air and naval forces would be based in Taiwan during the Sino-Soviet War and the first year of the Twilight War. I could not see Taiwan being blanketed with nuclear strikes by the Soviets, but certainly a few low yield nukes against a few ports and airfields to deny them to the Americans.

Or you could get the govt of Taiwan say they are neutral and not allow the US basing rights - which might explain how Thailand didnt get nuked either (I could be wrong about that - been a while since I read the Thailand module) - but per the V2.2. book Thailand was relatively untouched by the war - which to me means no nukes or not more than one or so

I will say this though - if we go with the "big refineries get nuked" argument - which isnt always 100% correct when you see that some werent in the canon in the US for instance - then Taiwan has several that definitely qualify

[Legbreaker]

Thailand isn't a great comparison though. It's further away from the action by a thousand miles or so, and doesn't straddle any major shipping routes (adjacent to, but not actually on like Taiwan). Additionally, none of the major combatants need to shift supplies through the area.
It's too far from the action to be used as an air base, and there's potentially hostile countries in the way as well.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Thailand isn't a great comparison though. It's further away from the action by a thousand miles or so, and doesn't straddle any major shipping routes (adjacent to, but not actually on like Taiwan). Additionally, none of the major combatants need to shift supplies through the area.
It's too far from the action to be used as an air base, and there's potentially hostile countries in the way as well.

In general, I agree, but the v1.0 timeline does list Soviet forces in Vietnam and Thailand could provide airbases for Allied attacks on said.

[Legbreaker]

How significant are those Soviet forces though? Could be aircraft from Taiwan were judged sufficient to keep tabs on them and drop the occasional load of bombs on them...

[Olefin]

The Soviet forces in the original timeline in Vietnam were pretty significant - there was a Front assigned there with several divisions that were taking on the Chinese along with the Vietnamese - more than enough that they could have been a significant threat to Thailand as well.

Again this could be a matter of what timeline you are using - the V1 timeline had them there, the V2 timeline doesnt

[Olefin]

FYI if you are looking at the V1 timeline most likely the US never pulls out of Subic Bay and Clark Field in the Philippines even with the volcanic eruption there - so the place they would probably have their fleet deployments and USAF support elements for China very well would be there especially if what they are doing is keeping the sealanes open for shipments to China and Japan

[RN7]

Taiwan at this time is nearly exclusively armed with U.S. supplied equipment although some local made content was also starting to appear. If Taiwan did send an expeditionary force to mainland China to aid the PRC it would be a natural conduit for NATO arms supplies to China. Taiwan was already using U.S. tanks, vehicles and artillery of various vintage unlike the PRC who would have to be trained in how to use and maintain them.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by RN7

Taiwan at this time is nearly exclusively armed with U.S. supplied equipment although some local made content was also starting to appear. If Taiwan did send an expeditionary force to mainland China to aid the PRC it would be a natural conduit for NATO arms supplies to China. Taiwan was already using U.S. tanks, vehicles and artillery of various vintage unlike the PRC who would have to be trained in how to use and maintain them.

Only question would be would be if the Taiwanese prior to the Soviets obliterating the Chinese army and govt have been greeted with open arms or with bullets and shells - remember that China was preparing to possibly invade Taiwan in our timeline in the mid to late 90's - they were in the process of redeploying forces to face them and not the Soviets

[madmikechoi]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

The Taiwanese (and US) fight Russian aircraft and shipping, at the urging of the US. The Taiwanese do not commit any troops to the conflict, keeping them for home defense. After the Twilight War (well after the Twilight War, like in the 2020's at least), the US brokers talks that bring Taiwan into the rest of China, with "special considerations and systems" like China gives to Hong Kong. This is in recognition for their service in the Sino-Russian part of the Twilight War.

Taiwan's existential threat has always been the People's Republic of China. Period. If anything Moscow could and possibly would wave the carrot of letting Taiwan call the shots over a mainland rump state- of provinces across the Taiwan Strait if Taipei launched an invasion at the same time the Red Army ran across China's Northeast, Mongolia and West (this would be predicated on Soviet satellite and ELINT on PLA forces across the Strait).

Taipei's neutrality in a Sino-Soviet War would be due to getting the best deal out of Washington- newest arms, a "temporary" US presence during the conflict, immediate reduction of tariffs on Taiwanese goods including Taiwanese multinationals that have manufacturing operations on the mainland, etc.


Mad Mike

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by madmikechoi

Taiwan's existential threat has always been the People's Republic of China. Period. If anything Moscow could and possibly would wave the carrot of letting Taiwan call the shots over a mainland rump state- of provinces across the Taiwan Strait if Taipei launched an invasion at the same time the Red Army ran across China's Northeast, Mongolia and West (this would be predicated on Soviet satellite and ELINT on PLA forces across the Strait).

That's a really interesting twist that I hadn't considered. Of course, this risks Taiwan being a target for U.S. strikes, once the U.S.A. joins the war, but probably not nuclear strikes. In fact, if the US Pacific Fleet is is having to fight the Soviet, the North Korean, the Vietnamese, the Indonesian (in solidarity with ally Australia) AND the Taiwanese navies, it could help explain PacFleet losses and the weakness of the USN presented in canon.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by madmikechoi

Taiwan's existential threat has always been the People's Republic of China. Period. If anything Moscow could and possibly would wave the carrot of letting Taiwan call the shots over a mainland rump state- of provinces across the Taiwan Strait if Taipei launched an invasion at the same time the Red Army ran across China's Northeast, Mongolia and West (this would be predicated on Soviet satellite and ELINT on PLA forces across the Strait).

Taiwan was an existential threat to the PRC during the Cold War when Taiwan was protected by the U.S. and had no hope of ever successfully invading the mainland due to being massively outnumbered by the PRC. Also a militant Taiwan would also have been restrained from invading mainland China by the U.S. and Soviet Union.

Now that mainland China is being invaded by the Soviet Union and the PRC has their backs to the wall the issue of the existence of Taiwan would be of little real consequence to the desperate PRC. It is possible that Taiwan could take advantage of this and ally itself with the Soviets for some territorial gains after the Soviets wipe out the PRC. But I think it is more likely that they would support the PRC and stay allied to the U.S. for four reasons.

Firstly they are both Chinese states and blood and language runs thicker than politics particularly when China is being invaded by a long term foe such as the Russians.

Secondly Kuomintang Taiwan has always despised communism and the prime communist state of the Soviet Union. They after all fought a vicious civil war with the Communist Chinese for decades on the mainland and ended up exiled on Formosa because of it.

Thirdly the Kuomintang have been allied with the U.S. since the Second World War and owe their survival to being under American protection. If America was not protecting Taiwan does anyone think it really would not be an offshore province of Communist China by now or in 1995.

Fourthly no Taiwanese government in its right mind would trust the Soviets to give them territory given their record. They have just launched a major and unprovoked invasion of the PRC which is a communist state. What guarantee is there that the Soviets would not renege on their promise and just invade Taiwan, especially after it broke its close links with the U.S.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by RN7

.But I think it is more likely that they would support the PRC and stay allied to the U.S. for four reasons.

What he said +1.

Personally, I've always found it a bit difficult to understand why the west would have supported China rather than sit back, break out the popcorn and watch. Would seem that the west would have been better off letting the two great communist powers destroy each other.

[Raellus]

I agree that Taiwan would be very unlikely to forge an impromptu alliance with the Soviet Union. I just thought it was a really interesting premise that merited further examination.

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Personally, I've always found it a bit difficult to understand why the west would have supported China rather than sit back, break out the popcorn and watch. Would seem that the west would have been better off letting the two great communist powers destroy each other.

This argument only makes sense if both sides are more or less evenly-matched. It's premised on mutual destruction. What if it appears that one side is going to win quickly and decisively? This is what happens in the T2K v1.0 timeline- the Soviets start steamrolling across Manchuria, annihilating the PRC's front line formations. Early on, it looks like only one side is going to be destroyed, leaving the other unchallenged in East Asia. Why would the U.S. want that?

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Would seem that the west would have been better off letting the two great communist powers destroy each other.

For this to happen, the U.S. has to supply the PRC. It makes perfect sense. If they don't, the USSR defeats the PRC in a year or two, and a major counterbalance to Soviet power in East Asia is permanently removed from the picture. The U.S. would not want this.