Operation Advent Crown

[chico20854]

I've put together the following history of the NATO 1997 Offensive into Poland:
(link here, pdf attached below, maps here, to be on my website soon.)

I built off the fragment of history in Black Madonna and took what I could from the vehicle guides, but most of it is my own creation. Jason Weiser and Fighting Flamingo provided some very helpful comments, so thanks to them for that!

Feel free to use it as you like and share it with others!

Enjoy!

-Chico

[Raellus]

Nice to see you again, Chico. I'm really looking forward to reading this.

[Ewan]

Had a quick look at it and it's impressive.
Think I might be going back a couple of years to 1997 for a small campaign before the nukes start to fly.
Thank you for your hard work in putting it together.

[stilleto69]

Chico, you're back. I really missed your articles. Excellent work as always.

[cawest]

where did you get the part about buying equipment from Egypt and Warsaw Pac compliant ammo and weapons? This might be helpful for the African books.

[chico20854]

Glad to stop by when I can!

Originally Posted by cawest

where did you get the part about buying equipment from Egypt and Warsaw Pac compliant ammo and weapons? This might be helpful for the African books.

I just remember reading in Jane's in the 80s and 90s that Egypt manufactured Soviet small arms, D-30s and ZU-23-2s and ammo for them. And when I was a kid the only AKs that got imported into the US were Egyptian. Given the tremendous need of the Chinese, with their industry under air bombardment, it would make sense for them to try to buy as much compatible equipment and supplies as they could. That avoids having to retrain and re-equip some units. Once the war widens and the NVA also needs ammo and equipment resupply it likewise makes sense to buy it from anywhere they can find it. Other likely sources like Jugoslavia are combatants and wouldn't have any production to spare.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

It's worth noting too, that the US Government had contracts with some defence manufacturers and/or certain friendly nations for the supply of non-NATO ammunition & ordnance to allies, rebel groups, etc. etc. who were equipped with non-NATO weapons.
I don't know exactly when this started but I have vague memories of it being in the 1970s or 1980s.

[rcaf_777]

There is a part about this in the Movie Charlie Wilson War, I think the Egypt manufactured Soviet small arms were being used by the Mujahedin

[chico20854]

Here's a (badly translated) link on Egyptian production of reverse-engineered D-30s, ZU-23-2s and M-46 130mm guns and the ammunition (basic HE, AP, HEAT, smoke and illum) for them.

Egypt also manufactured small arms, 82mm and 120mm mortars, grenades, land and naval mines, radios, radars and bombs. The Helwan plant assembled M1 tanks from kits received from the US (gradually adding more locally sourced parts); as the war goes on that assembly line becomes the primary source of replacement tanks and spares for CENTCOM.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by chico20854

Here's a (badly translated) link on Egyptian production of reverse-engineered D-30s, ZU-23-2s and M-46 130mm guns and the ammunition (basic HE, AP, HEAT, smoke and illum) for them.

Egypt also manufactured small arms, 82mm and 120mm mortars, grenades, land and naval mines, radios, radars and bombs. The Helwan plant assembled M1 tanks from kits received from the US (gradually adding more locally sourced parts); as the war goes on that assembly line becomes the primary source of replacement tanks and spares for CENTCOM.

Keep in mind that Egypt gets nuked in Dec 1997 (at least several of their refineries do) per the East African Sourcebook which is canon - so the question may be does that plant stay in operation with the damage that the nukes do to Cairo and also when the Libyans take out the Aswan Dam with the resultant flooding down the Nile (also canon)

"Cairo, Suez and Alexandria are left in ruins by multiple strikes against the major refineries in those cities."

Target in Cairo would have been Mostorod Refinery which is in northern Cairo so the plant wouldnt have been affected by the blast but very likely by EMP

"December 9, 1997

Taking advantage of the chaos gripping Egypt, Libya launches an attack by Tu-22 bombers against the Aswan Dam, causing the dam to collapse and send a wall of water down the Nile, drowning hundreds of thousands of Egyptians and displacing even more"

[antimedic]

Was Warsaw the longest siege of the war in Europe?

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by antimedic

Was Warsaw the longest siege of the war in Europe?

Yes. Its the one most prominently mentioned in canon. The other contender would be Berlin (described as like a second Stalingrad in Black Madonna), but the Pact couldn't besiege the city, secure the local area against a hostile local population and fight off NATO simultaneously. Krakow, Lodz and Poznan are all too intact to have suffered an extended siege.

Actually, given the (relatively) low NATO troop density and extended NATO supply lines I was trying to figure out why it took the Pact over 2 months of tactical nuclear warfare to lift the siege of Warsaw (first nuc July 9, siege lifted September 15). Its about 120 miles from Brest to Warsaw, an average of under two miles a day. You would think that any time a NATO unit set up a strong blocking position the Soviets would drop a nuc on it, and if the NATO troops dispersed enough to make that ineffective they are left vulnerable to infiltration. NATO wasn't that efficient in hunting down delivery systems (see ODS Scud hunting!) Part of the reason I ended the document where I did was because I couldn't/didn't want to figure out the tactical/operational nuclear exchange.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by chico20854

Yes. Its the one most prominently mentioned in canon. The other contender would be Berlin (described as like a second Stalingrad in Black Madonna), but the Pact couldn't besiege the city, secure the local area against a hostile local population and fight off NATO simultaneously. Krakow, Lodz and Poznan are all too intact to have suffered an extended siege.

Actually, given the (relatively) low NATO troop density and extended NATO supply lines I was trying to figure out why it took the Pact over 2 months of tactical nuclear warfare to lift the siege of Warsaw (first nuc July 9, siege lifted September 15). Its about 120 miles from Brest to Warsaw, an average of under two miles a day. You would think that any time a NATO unit set up a strong blocking position the Soviets would drop a nuc on it, and if the NATO troops dispersed enough to make that ineffective they are left vulnerable to infiltration. NATO wasn't that efficient in hunting down delivery systems (see ODS Scud hunting!) Part of the reason I ended the document where I did was because I couldn't/didn't want to figure out the tactical/operational nuclear exchange.

It may be that the nukes were used sparingly at first - i.e. we use one here you use one back and it took a while to get to where Poland got nuked as badly as it did - plainly by the time the US and Germans pulled back from Warsaw there werent any more restraint on nukes - i.e. they basically blew the city away

[Jason Weiser]

There's also when you think about it, the nature of what the nuclear targets are? Chico and I looked and discovered that they calculated that it took 5-6 5kt tactical devices to do acceptable damage to a single tank battalion. It takes a lot less, and does more long term damage if you go after the rear area services, so it may be a case of more warheads are being flung at the Pact and NATO rear areas. This has the effect of slowing down the Pact advance to a pace that NATO is somehow managing to retreat faster than the Pact can catch them. (though the fact that it still takes the Pact 2 MONTHS to relieve Warsaw does call that into question?).

Viewed in this lens, the NATO retreat makes a LOT of sense, as if you're losing your tactical/operational supply net in the field, it makes sense to retreat to where it's intact, Germany. And the pace of the Pact advance makes sense. Look at the pattern of Soviet advances in WWII, they'd advance for a bit, make great gains, and then peter out when they outran their supply infrastructure (Now yes, this doesn't account for nukes, modern smart munitions, and the fact they're advancing over an atrocious Polish road net that's been fought over twice and now nuked once?) Maybe it's just that simple, the road net is such a mess, it cannot support either army very well?

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I'll add my voice to the section about the road network.
The quality of any roads in different areas of Poland can vary from average to well below poor.
Drivers in northern Poland generally avoid puddles on the road when they see them, the attitude is that you never know how deep or wide the pothole is, so you go around it to avoid damaging your vehicle.
I saw potholes repaired by simply dumping rubble in them and then covering them over with asphalt. In other places they were repaired by pouring concrete into the hole or by using paving bricks. Over time the area around the repaired section degraded to the point where you no longer had a hole in the road but a higher section that was effectively now a speedbump (or sump remover depending on how low the vehicle was!)

So it's not just the quality but also the consistency of the roads that you have to worry about. Saying that some road repairs were 'slapdash' is probably being kind.
The road quality & consistency did appear to improve the further south I went, I vaguely remember the roads in Krakow where decent, far better than many of the roads I saw in Warsaw and further north.
With several months of heavy traffic I believe most of the roads useful for the military will be severely degraded and only off-road capable vehicles will be able to use them.

[stilleto69]

Again Chico, let me applaud your work. And thanks for the little pieces of info regarding the Air War, it's been a great help to me in "fleshing out" my version of the US Military Vehicle Guide for the USAF & US Navy & Marine Corps Aviation units involved in the war.

One quick question to anyone: "What happened to II US Corps?" I know canon has them in Korea (which should have been I US Corps), but realistically I think they would have been deployed to Europe, like they were in WW II. JMHO.

Again, great work. One day I should hopefully be able to publish my vehicle guides.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by stilleto69

One quick question to anyone: "What happened to II US Corps?" I know canon has them in Korea (which should have been I US Corps), but realistically I think they would have been deployed to Europe, like they were in WW II. JMHO.

Thank you!

I have II Corps HQ formed in Alabama, deployed by rail to California and awaiting overseas transport when the nukes fly. It gets tasked on disaster relief and internal security duties and once the Mexican invasion starts they are on the eastern flank of the California front, with units from Ft Irwin under command. I'm still fleshing out details.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic

I'll add my voice to the section about the road network.
The quality of any roads in different areas of Poland can vary from average to well below poor.
Drivers in northern Poland generally avoid puddles on the road when they see them, the attitude is that you never know how deep or wide the pothole is, so you go around it to avoid damaging your vehicle.
I saw potholes repaired by simply dumping rubble in them and then covering them over with asphalt. In other places they were repaired by pouring concrete into the hole or by using paving bricks. Over time the area around the repaired section degraded to the point where you no longer had a hole in the road but a higher section that was effectively now a speedbump (or sump remover depending on how low the vehicle was!)

So it's not just the quality but also the consistency of the roads that you have to worry about. Saying that some road repairs were 'slapdash' is probably being kind.
The road quality & consistency did appear to improve the further south I went, I vaguely remember the roads in Krakow where decent, far better than many of the roads I saw in Warsaw and further north.
With several months of heavy traffic I believe most of the roads useful for the military will be severely degraded and only off-road capable vehicles will be able to use them.

About all I remember from the major roads in Poland when I was there was under construction. A lot of EU money going in there. I don't want to think what they were like in communist times! Postwar Bosnian roads were no joke either, and they did support heavy wheeled military traffic on a continuous basis.

The rail network was reasonably intact according to Going Home, but NATO, as mentioned in the document, wasn't set up to use rail in an offensive manner. Very few or no rail repair or operating units, no locomotives or rolling stock, no cargo handling units...

[Benjamin]

Great stuff Chico. My alternate T2K has NATO halting about 25km from the Russian border after the Soviet leader calls the US President on the Red Phone and gives him an ultimatum. “Get too close to the Motherland and we will nuke you!” They pause to consider their options just as Italy enters the war. NATO decides on a limited withdrawal about to the Vistula and fighting shifts to the Balkans.

Anywho, awesome background material you have produced. Thanks.

[Matt Wiser]

I'll second what Jason has said, and add this: both sides would try and maintain troops in contact with the enemy, even though their forces on the front lines are dispersed as to not present nuclear targets. It's not a good idea to fire a nuke-even a low-yield weapon like a 155-mm shell if the enemy unit across from you is within rifle range, because blast, heat, and thermal radiation do not respect unit boundaries! They'll be hitting rear-area targets instead of forces in the field, unless a battlefield situation presents itself that using an SS-21 or a Lance (or Lance successor) is necessary.

[Jason Weiser]

Hey all, been working on (with the little free time I have these days, new job...) on doing a blog post on this article for "500 Miles..." and yeah, I plan on doing this as a module suitability review article. There's so much wargaming potential here.

[Benjamin]

So I have a couple of questions of where the front lines are at two specific dates...

On or about May 24, 1997 where would the Battle front run through Poland?

Also does anyone remember the exact date that Italy declared war on NATO? Is it prior to the use of tactical nuclear weapons? I’m still interested in doing an alternate version where the war stays conventional much longer. Essentially saner heads prevail and NATO calls a halt well away from the Soviet border so as to not provoke a nuclear response. To me as tensions increase in the Med this seems a very reasonable course of action.

Thanks.
Benjamin

[RN7]

So far I've only got to page 10 but it's a great read Chico.

I was doing something similar a few years ago as part of a write up of a T2K German Sourcebook which I have never finished, but I think yours is more detailed. One minor point would be the three NATO garrisons in West Berlin include the French garrison. When West German troops cross the Inter-German border in October 1996 the French leave the Atlantic Alliance (they officially left the military part of NATO in 1966) and pull their troops out of West Germany. The Soviets would likely allow the French troops to evacuate West Berlin through Tegel Airport in the French Sector minus their equipment. The French Sector would then be occupied by Soviet Troops and East German police forces as no NVA troops were allowed in Berlin.

I had the Soviet 35th Guard Air Assault Brigade airlifted into East Berlin in November 1996 to stiffen the Soviet and East German government position in East Berlin. It is used in the Soviet attempt to occupy the American and British sectors of West Berlin. When NATO starts to move against Berlin in December 1996 the 35th takes heavy casualties, but helps to evacuate senior Soviet and East German officials to the Polish border.

I included four parts of East Germany as part of the Warsaw Pact defensive line along the German-Polish border and the Baltic Sea.

Falkenhagen in Eastern Brandenburg a few miles west of the Oder River was a major Soviet command bunker complex. It was in fact the largest Soviet command centre outside of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and was originally built by the Nazis as an underground munitions and chemicals factory. The Soviet took it over in 1945 and expanded and upgraded it. The Soviets heavily fortified Falkenhagen and the surrounding area after West German forces cross the Inter-German border, and when NATO takes Berlin the NVA command and leadership is relocated to Falkenhagen. NATO armoured forces led by German Fallschirmjager and special forces storm and overrun Falkenhagen at the beginning of Advent Crown. Some NVA escape across the Oder into Poland, but the acting East German leader is among the casualties.

Bautzen is a town on the Spree River in Easter Lower Saxony and was the location of two prisons. One was the Stasi prison for political prisoners in East Germany, and Bautzen became a redoubt for Stasi holdouts after the unifications of Germany. The town was the last part of mainland Germany to fall to West German forces after heavy fighting. After the nuclear warfare Bautzen is dominated by Germany's Sorb population, a Slavic people native to Germany.

Usedom Island is located on the estuary of the Oder River in the Baltic. At the end of WW2 the eastern part of the island was transferred to Poland with the western part remaining under East German control. When West German forces cross the Inter-German Border in October 1996 Polish troops cross into the East German part of Usedom, ransack the German settlements and expel the German population despite protest from the East Germans and Soviets. Usedom is garrisoned by Polish forces at the start of Advent Crown, but after German forces land on the island the Poles quickly retreat to the Polish part of the island and the mainland. Later in the war the Germans annex all of Usedom and expel all Poles from the island, changing official names and signposts to German names. The Germans also do this in the nearby Polish city of Gdansk on the mainland, changing its official name to its per-Second World War German name of Danzig. This has been protested by all sections of post-nuclear war Poland and the Soviets. NATO and MilGov has yet to comment on this.

Rugen island is German's largest island located in the Baltic. It remains under NVA and East German government control as late as 2000, and has been reinforced by some Soviet army and naval forces. The NVA government in exile use Rugen for propaganda purposes and to taunt the Unified German government.

I also have a rogue NVA force marauding across Saxony and the adjacent Czech and Polish borderlands. Kampfgruppe Schneider is led by deserters from the German Army. They were originally NVA troops who merged with the Bundeswehr in 1996, but broke from their unit during the fighting in Poland in 1999. Although the core of Kampfgruppe Schneider are former NVA, they have turned into extreme German nationalists and have an infamous reputation for brutality among both NATO and Warsaw Pact forces in the region. Even the right wing German Freibroderbund has distanced itself from Kampfgruppe Schneider, who has begun to paint swastikas on their vehicles and has a preference for wearing black and grey uniforms that resemblance the Second World War Waffen SS.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

So I have a couple of questions of where the front lines are at two specific dates...

On or about May 24, 1997 where would the Battle front run through Poland?

Also does anyone remember the exact date that Italy declared war on NATO? Is it prior to the use of tactical nuclear weapons? I’m still interested in doing an alternate version where the war stays conventional much longer. Essentially saner heads prevail and NATO calls a halt well away from the Soviet border so as to not provoke a nuclear response. To me as tensions increase in the Med this seems a very reasonable course of action.

Thanks.
Benjamin

On May 24 Third German Army was jumping off after being stalled in Silesia due to poor weather. Panzergruppe Oberdorf was leaving Wroclaw, with 150km to Czestokowa. In the Second Army sector, III US Corps was approaching Chojnice, while the other corps were advancing generally in parallel. In the central sector II British and V US Corps are east of Poznan (probably near Kolo or Konin) while VI German Korps was consolidating in Poznan. In general you could extrapolate between their May 15 and June 1 positions on the maps.

Italy's declaration of war is on July 2. The first nuclear weapon is used in the West on August 9, so there's about 5 and a half weeks of conventional fighting.

That's an interesting alternative! I personally find NATO's embrace of expanded Polish borders in the east as beyond reckless, especially since Czechoslovakia was not overrun. That's a Soviet-controlled dagger just waiting to cut your supply lines and isolate an entire army group!

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by RN7

So far I've only got to page 10 but it's a great read Chico.

I was doing something similar a few years ago as part of a write up of a T2K German Sourcebook which I have never finished, but I think yours is more detailed. One minor point would be the three NATO garrisons in West Berlin include the French garrison. When West German troops cross the Inter-German border in October 1996 the French leave the Atlantic Alliance (they officially left the military part of NATO in 1966) and pull their troops out of West Germany. The Soviets would likely allow the French troops to evacuate West Berlin through Tegel Airport in the French Sector minus their equipment. The French Sector would then be occupied by Soviet Troops and East German police forces as no NVA troops were allowed in Berlin.

I had the Soviet 35th Guard Air Assault Brigade airlifted into East Berlin in November 1996 to stiffen the Soviet and East German government position in East Berlin. It is used in the Soviet attempt to occupy the American and British sectors of West Berlin. When NATO starts to move against Berlin in December 1996 the 35th takes heavy casualties, but helps to evacuate senior Soviet and East German officials to the Polish border.

I included four parts of East Germany as part of the Warsaw Pact defensive line along the German-Polish border and the Baltic Sea.

Falkenhagen in Eastern Brandenburg a few miles west of the Oder River was a major Soviet command bunker complex. It was in fact the largest Soviet command centre outside of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and was originally built by the Nazis as an underground munitions and chemicals factory. The Soviet took it over in 1945 and expanded and upgraded it. The Soviets heavily fortified Falkenhagen and the surrounding area after West German forces cross the Inter-German border, and when NATO takes Berlin the NVA command and leadership is relocated to Falkenhagen. NATO armoured forces led by German Fallschirmjager and special forces storm and overrun Falkenhagen at the beginning of Advent Crown. Some NVA escape across the Oder into Poland, but the acting East German leader is among the casualties.

Bautzen is a town on the Spree River in Easter Lower Saxony and was the location of two prisons. One was the Stasi prison for political prisoners in East Germany, and Bautzen became a redoubt for Stasi holdouts after the unifications of Germany. The town was the last part of mainland Germany to fall to West German forces after heavy fighting. After the nuclear warfare Bautzen is dominated by Germany's Sorb population, a Slavic people native to Germany.

Usedom Island is located on the estuary of the Oder River in the Baltic. At the end of WW2 the eastern part of the island was transferred to Poland with the western part remaining under East German control. When West German forces cross the Inter-German Border in October 1996 Polish troops cross into the East German part of Usedom, ransack the German settlements and expel the German population despite protest from the East Germans and Soviets. Usedom is garrisoned by Polish forces at the start of Advent Crown, but after German forces land on the island the Poles quickly retreat to the Polish part of the island and the mainland. Later in the war the Germans annex all of Usedom and expel all Poles from the island, changing official names and signposts to German names. The Germans also do this in the nearby Polish city of Gdansk on the mainland, changing its official name to its per-Second World War German name of Danzig. This has been protested by all sections of post-nuclear war Poland and the Soviets. NATO and MilGov has yet to comment on this.

Rugen island is German's largest island located in the Baltic. It remains under NVA and East German government control as late as 2000, and has been reinforced by some Soviet army and naval forces. The NVA government in exile use Rugen for propaganda purposes and to taunt the Unified German government.

I also have a rogue NVA force marauding across Saxony and the adjacent Czech and Polish borderlands. Kampfgruppe Schneider is led by deserters from the German Army. They were originally NVA troops who merged with the Bundeswehr in 1996, but broke from their unit during the fighting in Poland in 1999. Although the core of Kampfgruppe Schneider are former NVA, they have turned into extreme German nationalists and have an infamous reputation for brutality among both NATO and Warsaw Pact forces in the region. Even the right wing German Freibroderbund has distanced itself from Kampfgruppe Schneider, who has begun to paint swastikas on their vehicles and has a preference for wearing black and grey uniforms that resemblance the Second World War Waffen SS.

Thanks!

I followed a more v1 timeline where the NVA are active participants in the campaign to liberate East Germany, although I've operated on the assumption that the NVA comes out of its barracks in support of the West Germans as soon as the Bundeswehr crosses the border.

For the Battle of Berlin, I assume that the French Brigade negotiates a withdrawal and even manages to extract its equipment. (The same with the French 3rd Army and Belgian Corps in West Germany). The reference to three NATO brigades in Berlin was poorly worded; it should have referred to the UK and US Berlin Brigades and the heavily armed and lavishly equipped West German "civilian" police regiment. I have two Soviet brigade-sized elements in Berlin, the 6th Motor-Rifle Brigade and the KGB 105th Border Guard Regiment. I'll go into further detail in my future writeup, but with German reunification I have the socialist loyalists regrouping in 1997 under Soviet tutelage. Those that were in the East German military or security services are concentrated in three VOPO regiments, while East German men of military age that were in the USSR or elsewhere in the Warsaw Pact (on vacation, working, studying or married to local women) were drafted into two FDJ (Freie Deutsche Jugend, equivalent to the Soviet Komsomol party youth movement) regiments. I think the narrative refers to one of the VOPO regiments in the siege of Warsaw; the others are likewise used/squandered by the Soviet high command - their loyalty is still considered suspect and STAVKA has no compelling reason not to use them as cannon fodder, yet the VOPO units are also composed of ardent communists that have been betrayed by their countrymen, true fanatics for the communist cause that could be extremely useful in enforcing loyalty behind suspect Polish formations!

I like your concept re: Usedom. Do you mean Szczecin/Stettin rather than Gdansk/Danzig? Gdansk is pretty deep along the Baltic coast.

[Benjamin]

Looking over the Advent Crown article again I think there are a few issues. Some of these are left overs from V1 canon while others stem from the fact that GDW never really addresses the issues. Remember the original timeline for the entire War was just a few pages in the Director’s Guide.

First, France. The West German entry into East Germany with military force and then the revelation that the two Germanys were colluding to reunite by force would have appalled and panicked the French government. It would instantly vindicated the DeGaulle supporters and their wish to keep NATO at arm’s length. BUT I don’t believe for a minute that while they withdrew from West Berlin that they would hand any over portion of it to the Soviets or East German Loyalists. More likely a deal was made wherein the French left, with all of their equipment and vehicles, while it was agreed that no further British, American or especially German forces would enter the city to replace the French. It is very likely that even the rail and air corridors remained open for travel. The Soviets, being at war with China would be doing quite a bit to keep the US out of the fighting. The Americans and British would have stayed but now stuck with having to defend the old French sector as well.

Canon though says that the Soviets invade Norway in mid-November; almost a full month before the remaining NATO allies join the fighting in East Germany. This along with possible missile attacks against north European ports would have ensured that Denmark, Norway and Netherlands remained NATO members. Oddly though it is possible that Belgian or perhaps even French forces went into Norway as part of ACE Mobile Force. I have a write up somewhere with my ideas about that and will look for it.

As for Poland...there is no way in hell that even the most hawkish leaders of Britain, Canada and the US agree to shift the Polish borders eastward. The only plausible explanation beyond an over eager German commander completely ignoring stop orders...Germany and Poland made a secret deal where Germany got Stettin while post-war would support a transfer of the Kaliningrad Oblast to Poland during peace negotiations. If agents within the new German government slip this to the Soviets it would be more provocative than the old Zimmerman Telegram. It’s possible this combined with desperation may have triggered the use of tactical nukes with any German troops on Soviet soil.

Benjamin

[RN7]

Originally Posted by chico20854

Thanks!

I followed a more v1 timeline where the NVA are active participants in the campaign to liberate East Germany, although I've operated on the assumption that the NVA comes out of its barracks in support of the West Germans as soon as the Bundeswehr crosses the border.

For the Battle of Berlin, I assume that the French Brigade negotiates a withdrawal and even manages to extract its equipment. (The same with the French 3rd Army and Belgian Corps in West Germany). The reference to three NATO brigades in Berlin was poorly worded; it should have referred to the UK and US Berlin Brigades and the heavily armed and lavishly equipped West German "civilian" police regiment. I have two Soviet brigade-sized elements in Berlin, the 6th Motor-Rifle Brigade and the KGB 105th Border Guard Regiment. I'll go into further detail in my future writeup, but with German reunification I have the socialist loyalists regrouping in 1997 under Soviet tutelage. Those that were in the East German military or security services are concentrated in three VOPO regiments, while East German men of military age that were in the USSR or elsewhere in the Warsaw Pact (on vacation, working, studying or married to local women) were drafted into two FDJ (Freie Deutsche Jugend, equivalent to the Soviet Komsomol party youth movement) regiments. I think the narrative refers to one of the VOPO regiments in the siege of Warsaw; the others are likewise used/squandered by the Soviet high command - their loyalty is still considered suspect and STAVKA has no compelling reason not to use them as cannon fodder, yet the VOPO units are also composed of ardent communists that have been betrayed by their countrymen, true fanatics for the communist cause that could be extremely useful in enforcing loyalty behind suspect Polish formations!

I like your concept re: Usedom. Do you mean Szczecin/Stettin rather than Gdansk/Danzig? Gdansk is pretty deep along the Baltic coast.

I also prefer the V1 timeline have most of the NVA switching side when West German troops cross the Inter-German border. However some NVA and more politically reliable forces such as the Stasi and Grenztruppen remain loyal to the East German government. I should have made a distinction in my reply instead of grouping all of the NVA into one group.

I would include Szczecin/Stettin along with Gdansk/Danzig as part of a German land grab in Poland, just the name of Gdansk/Danzig is more historically significant. Poland is a mess in T2K and anything goes!

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

Looking over the Advent Crown article again I think there are a few issues. Some of these are left overs from V1 canon while others stem from the fact that GDW never really addresses the issues. Remember the original timeline for the entire War was just a few pages in the Director’s Guide.

First, France. The West German entry into East Germany with military force and then the revelation that the two Germanys were colluding to reunite by force would have appalled and panicked the French government. It would instantly vindicated the DeGaulle supporters and their wish to keep NATO at arm’s length. BUT I don’t believe for a minute that while they withdrew from West Berlin that they would hand any over portion of it to the Soviets or East German Loyalists. More likely a deal was made wherein the French left, with all of their equipment and vehicles, while it was agreed that no further British, American or especially German forces would enter the city to replace the French. It is very likely that even the rail and air corridors remained open for travel. The Soviets, being at war with China would be doing quite a bit to keep the US out of the fighting. The Americans and British would have stayed but now stuck with having to defend the old French sector as well.

Canon though says that the Soviets invade Norway in mid-November; almost a full month before the remaining NATO allies join the fighting in East Germany. This along with possible missile attacks against north European ports would have ensured that Denmark, Norway and Netherlands remained NATO members. Oddly though it is possible that Belgian or perhaps even French forces went into Norway as part of ACE Mobile Force. I have a write up somewhere with my ideas about that and will look for it.

As for Poland...there is no way in hell that even the most hawkish leaders of Britain, Canada and the US agree to shift the Polish borders eastward. The only plausible explanation beyond an over eager German commander completely ignoring stop orders...Germany and Poland made a secret deal where Germany got Stettin while post-war would support a transfer of the Kaliningrad Oblast to Poland during peace negotiations. If agents within the new German government slip this to the Soviets it would be more provocative than the old Zimmerman Telegram. It’s possible this combined with desperation may have triggered the use of tactical nukes with any German troops on Soviet soil.

Benjamin

The four Allied powers of the Second World War (Britain, France, USA, USSR) occupied Berlin as directed under the Potsdam Agreement of 1945, and even after the creation of West and Germany the four allied powers remained the ultimate political authority in both East and West Berlin until the reunification of Germany in 1990. In the T2K timeline this remained the situation until the end of 1997 after NATO forces occupy Berlin and drive the Soviets and remnant NVA out of the city.

When West German forces cross the Inter-German border in October 1996 the French left NATO and pulled their forces out of West Germany. Berlin is a separate case because both the West and East German governments has no recognised legal authority in Berlin, as the Potsdam Agreement gave each of the Allied powers ultimate legal responsibility over their own sector in Berlin. Later the Soviet's tried to give East Germany some legal powers in East Berlin and even allowed them to make East Berlin their capital. Britain, France and America never officially recognised East German authority in East Berlin and would officially only deal with the Soviets. East German military forces were not allowed into East Berlin, but the Soviets did allow them to enter the city for propaganda purposes during parades etc to annoy the Western Allies.

From October to December 1996 Berlin is basically a no fire zone. West German forces will not attack US, British, French and Soviet forces in Berlin or any of their aircraft along the air corridors out of Berlin for fear of reprisals. However once other NATO powers joins the Germans and cross into East Germany in December 1996 the French are placed in a very awkward position. They are now the only Allied power (of the WW2 Allies) that are neutral in the conflict and French forces in West Berlin are cut off.

From a military position French forces in West Berlin have no hope of support or relief. Politically once they leave Berlin the French are relinquishing their legal authority over their sector. But with NATO advancing on Berlin and the Soviets and loyalist NVA set to heavily resist the French situation in Berlin is now a lost cause. The Soviets will allow them to leave as they are no longer in NATO, but although its easy to air lift French personnel and some light vehicles from Berlin how do you transport tanks with the C-160 Transall? The C-160 is smaller than a C-130 and that's all the French Air Force used at this time? The USAF is not going to lend their C-5 Galaxy to the French and fly them into a hot zone like Berlin, and no commercial cargo operator is going to allow their Boeing 747F cargo planes either. What happens to the French sector once they leave is open to speculation. The American and British garrisons have their hands full in their own sectors and are cut off from other NATO forces until the end of December.


About the Polish border and the occupation of former German territory by German troops. Well I think I'm the only one pushing this so if you don't think it could happen that's absolutely fine with me.

However in T2K the German militaries united their country right under the noses of their own governments and their NATO and Warsaw Pact allies. They fought the Soviets in East Germany for two months on their own, and then sent their forces into Austria in the summer of 1997 after the Italians and Czechs attacked Austria and Bavaria. What is left of the Austrian Army has now largely been integrated into the German Army and the Germans are occupying large parts of Poland.

I would have the German land grab happening post-2000 and after Operation Omega. Who is going to stop the Germans from incorporating parts of Poland back into Germany?

The Poles?!!!?

The Soviets won't like it but they have used nuclear weapons against Germany and all of her allies so the Germans wont give a fig what the Soviets think. Also the Soviets are not going to use what's left of their nuclear arsenal in Poland as the official Polish government (what's left of it) is still an ally. The Soviet Army is also shot to pieces and in no state to take on the Germans in Western Poland. The commanders of Soviet divisions still in Poland would probably not even obey their orders.

The Americans are in the same position plus their government has split into two factions. CivGov might object but they have no power in Europe. The Germans are an ally of MilGov so no comment here. The British are in much the same position and will probably do the same as MilGov.

The French might object but they are occupying the German Rhineland so you can imagine what the Germans will tell the French to go and do with themselves

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[Olefin]

I would think that the French would do one of two things with their heavy equipment - either try to get both sides to declare a very short ceasefire - especially by telling the Soviets that it is part of the price of France staying neutral - and using it to evacuate their men and their heavy equipment out to West Germany and then home. Or alternatively turning over that equipment to the US or UK in exchange for compensation of some sort and the US or UK being made to clearly mark it with their designations

About the only other thing they could do is destroy it in place - i.e. since you wont let us take it and we dont want to be seen as aiding either side we will blow it up, burn it, etc. so its not useful

[Raellus]

@RN7: I don't see the Germans occupying parts of Poland when the French occupy part of Germany. From 2000, it makes more sense for the Germans to ally with the Free Polish Congress so as to guard Germany's eastern border, whilst turning the remains of the Bundeswehr, now bolstered with a significant number of American AFVs (abandoned post-OMEGA), against the French in attempt to liberate the Rhineland.

Germany wouldn't have the strength to take on both the Poles (and Soviet forces still stuck in Poland) and the French simultaneously.

Trying to annex Prussia (again) means ceding the Rhineland to France and I don't see that as very likely.

@Olefin: Any French evacuation of their Berlin enclave is going to be incredibly difficult in the midst of a modern shooting war. I can't think of any recent precedent for such an evacuation, really. Will NATO and the WTO consent to a cease fire in order to allow the French to withdraw? Perhaps, but since doing so would open a corridor from Berlin to the west, such a cease fire could benefit NATO much more than the WTO, so I don't see the Soviets agreeing.

I think a more likely outcome is one side or the other "impounding" the French forces in Berlin with the understanding that they would be repatriated as soon as possible. The French wouldn't really be in a position to demur. I suppose they could fight back, but it would be futile. Would the French government order a last stand, or agree to the arrangement? I tend to conclude the latter.

If NATO does the impounding, it insults French pride and gives France yet another reason to turn on the alliance. If the Soviets do it, it creates a pretty cool adventure/campaign scenario, giving French PCs a "Going Home" scenario of their own. Either way, it opens the door for some French military vehicles showing up in the service of NATO and/or the WTO in eastern Germany/Poland for years to come.