Is T2k Poland 2022 Ukraine?

[Raellus]

In the recent RW conflict unfolding in Ukraine, we've seen widespread resistance to Russian advances in the satellite towns and villages around Kiev, some involving hastily armed civilians using small arms, Molotovs, and various ATWs (I've seen a couple of pics of civilians wielding NLAWs). MSRs aren't anywhere close to secure, with Ukrainian SOF launching hit-and-run attacks against supply convoys and even armored columns.

Clearly, this has frustrated Russian forces, leading to the indiscriminate use of artillery against population centers and targeted atrocities against civilians like we've seen at Bucha.

Would we see similar resistance carried out by hastily-armed Polish civilians (supported by a smattering of regular Polish troops, ORMO, and ZOMO) to NATO advances in the v1 and v2 timelines, and/or against Soviet troops in the 4e timeline, or is this an apples to oranges comparison?

The one thing I don't see in a T2k scenario (any timeline) is the widespread distribution of fire-and-forget ATGM systems. "Wireless" ATGMs were just coming on line in NATO armies, c.1996.

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[Ewan]

I think it’s a fair comparison, in the v1 and v2 timelines a number of Poles will still remember German aggression from WW2 and would do whatever they can. In v2 specifically it was border clashes with Poland that led to the initial German invasion and I’m sure especially around the older generation they will have memories of these times.

Similarly in the v4 timeline once Poland has tasted freedom in the early 90s they will be very reluctant to want to experience Soviet occupation again.

[Tegyrius]

I think Ewan nailed it. In the v1 timeline, living memory of the last German invasion will inform the actions of Polish senior government officials and flag officers. From the perspective of several Warsaw Pact members, especially through lenses shaped by Soviet propaganda and strategy, German reunification will appear a prelude to renewed German territorial claims. By April 1997, to mangle a phrase, there will be a rifle behind every blade of Polish (and Czechoslovakian) grass.

- C.

[Raellus]

I imagine the Polish gov't/military would be handing out RPG-76 Komars like candy.

I'm really surprised that neither the Soviets nor the Warsaw Pact* developed any SOF like the Green Berets to train and lead partisan units behind enemy lines in the event of a NATO invasion, especially given the important role that partisans played in resisting the Nazi occupation of large swaths of European Russia during WWII. For example, Spetsnaz doctrine and training was almost exclusively oriented towards covert and direct action offense. I understand that the post war Soviet Union's strategic mindset was one of preemption, not reaction, but it just seems weird given the USSRs almost atavistic fear of a reprise of Barbarossa 1941 that it didn't develop more of a backstop guerilla warfare capacity during the Cold War.

*Perhaps the one exception to this rule was the Romanian Patriotic Guards. They were essentially militia, not SOF, but they were trained and equipped to resist an invasion of Romania using guerilla tactics. Ironically, it was an invasion by its Warsaw Pact "allies" that the Romanian government was fearful of/preparing for, more so than an invasion by NATO.

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[Tegyrius]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I'm really surprised that neither the Soviets nor the Warsaw Pact* developed any SOF like the Green Berets to train and lead partisan units behind enemy lines in the event of a NATO invasion, especially given the important role that partisans played in resisting the Nazi occupation of large swaths of European Russia during WWII.

I wonder if the folks in charge of doctrine were afraid of such lessons being turned back on them, particularly after Hungary in '56 and Czechoslovakia in '68 demonstrated that not all Warsaw Pact members were wholly committed to the glorious Soviet cause.

- C.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Raellus

The one thing I don't see in a T2k scenario (any timeline) is the widespread distribution of fire-and-forget ATGM systems. "Wireless" ATGMs were just coming on line in NATO armies, c.1996.

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The thing is, the Tankbreaker program (it was a real weapons program here in the US) would have had to have some major funding and R&D to appear in T2K; the real Tankbreaker (and it's associated program which also has a mention in T2K, the Assault Breaker program, which became the Skeet and SFW Bomb) was bloated, over budget, and behind schedule (again, as was Assault Breaker). There were some other FF ATGM in development, such as TOW 3 (which later got another name and then got cut from the budget for costs), and the Swedish N-LAW (which after being years behind schedule, is finally seeing some action in Ukraine). FF ATGMs are simply expensive -- to develop and produce, despite how cost-effective they turn out to be. That's why the Javelin took so long to develop.

(And the Assault Breaker did finally produce actual weapons -- the Skeet submunition rounds for weapons ranging from the 120mm mortar to the ATACMS missile, and the CBU-105 Sensor-Fuzed Weapon - a type of cluster bomb. I recommend looking them up.)

As for certain pet projects that were given some extra funds and development in T2K -- we've all done that.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Tegyrius

I wonder if the folks in charge of doctrine were afraid of such lessons being turned back on them, particularly after Hungary in '56 and Czechoslovakia in 68 demonstrated that not all Warsaw Pact members were wholly committed to the glorious Soviet cause.

I was thinking the same thing. Seems to be a case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater, but it certainly is congruent with the Cold War Soviet psyche.

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

The thing is, the Tankbreaker program (it was a real weapons program here in the US) would have had to have some major funding and R&D to appear in T2K; the real Tankbreaker (and it's associated program which also has a mention in T2K, the Assault Breaker program, which became the Skeet and SFW Bomb) was bloated, over budget, and behind schedule (again, as was Assault Breaker). There were some other FF ATGM in development, such as TOW 3 (which later got another name and then got cut from the budget for costs), and the Swedish N-LAW (which after being years behind schedule, is finally seeing some action in Ukraine). FF ATGMs are simply expensive -- to develop and produce, despite how cost-effective they turn out to be. That's why the Javelin took so long to develop.

As for certain pet projects that were given some extra funds and development in T2K -- we've all done that.

Your point is well taken. I should have clarified that I was referring to the T2kU c. 1996, as opposed to the real world. I think that, if the Cold War hadn't ended (a la v1), that FF ATGMS would have appeared sooner than IRL, due to continued Cold War-level funding of military R&D.

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