Village Demographics

[Raellus]

Let's figure out the demographics of a typical Polish village, c. 2000. Why don't we make the math simple and start with a population of 100. That should make it fairly easy to upscale for larger settlements.

What would be the gender and age breakdowns (percentage wise) in said village?

I would assume that most of the male population between the ages of 18-45 would have been conscripted during the war, either into the regular armed forces or the ORMO. That would skew the male-to-female ratio to favor the latter, no?

I always assume some degree of decrease from the pre-war population as a result of the war, either due to "collateral damage" from the fighting, lack of fuel (for heating during the winter), poor medical care (due to shortages of medications, mostly), etc.

At the same time, there may have been additions to the pre-war population due to the arrival of DP's and refugees from nearby urban centers. What percentage of the village population c. 2000 would consist of DP's/refugees?

I'm working on villager archetypes. As a Ref, I've always just sort of winged it, but I'd like to begin with a more systematic approach, using village-wide demographics c. 2000 as a starting point, the ultimate goal being increased realism.

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[Homer]

This is really cool!

I did some research for another project on some aspects of demographics and conscription which I hope may help.

Accounts from the 30 years war, the 1937 Sino-Japanese war, and similar conflicts also point to a bell curve effect where heightened infant mortality/reduced fertility and lowered survival rates for the elderly induce a bump in the middle of the demographic bubble. A question to consider is whether there would be any formal or informal effort at child relocation to rural areas as has happened in other periods of war.

If you want, there is precedent to expand the age and gender range for military conscription; WW2 Europe saw examples of conscription by policy from 16-60 and by practice that age range was extended to extremes. In addition, the USSR practiced female conscription for certain trades and skills. There are also examples of industrial conscription, whether male or female.

Hope this helps!

[Raellus]

Definitely. I hadn't factored in increased mortality for the very young and very old so thanks for pointing that out. All other things being equal, I think you are correct that settlement population would follow a bell curve. On the other hand, the drafting* of those in the 16-60ish (men and some women) for military service or industrial work (I hadn't considered the latter, so thanks again) age range would flatten it out, no?

Or, might we be looking at an inverted bell-curve? That's always how I'd imagined it- significantly more young and old than prime military age inhabitants. I recall reading somewhere that in some villages in rural England, after the Great War (aka WWI), there were no men between the ages of 18-35 as they'd all perished in the war. As you mentioned, child relocation would definitely raise the young side of the curve as well.

*Or enslavement, if slavers are a part of one's T2kU.

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[Homer]

Yep-

I read a couple of soldier accounts from the 30 years war with where the devastation was so complete that villages were reported to have a few lucky infants, children, infirm men, visibly sick or otherwise undesirable women, and old (but not elderly) people. The “crone” or “wise man” you see in a fairy tails was notable for survival and rare enough that they were accorded a level of deference solely for age and capability.

Fit men who weren’t killed or conscripted are mentioned as hiding in the woods; if there was enough warning older girls and women were also sent to hide on the approach of an army. Children were expected to work at tasks they could perform. The passage of an army or bandits may change the demographics of a village overnight; killing off the men, carrying off the women, or an introduced epidemic. Regarding militias, village resistance was generally not very effective against army’s or bandits (marauders) for lack of capability or numbers. That said, the murder of stragglers or foragers by villagers was not unheard of.

Fraser’s “The Steel Bonnets”, Löns’s “The Warwolf”, and von Grimmelshausen’s “Adventures of a Simpleton” all paint pretty good images of conditions for civilians in conditions similar to Poland or any other heavily contested area circa 2000.

[castlebravo92]

A couple of points on conscription- one has to figure women would have been conscripted as well, especially into support roles as casualties mounted and otherwise able bodied men were moved from support roles into combat roles. So the village might have scant women in the 16-45 year range as well.

And then, as things unraveled and units fell apart (or even when they didn't), a lot of men and women would have deserted to go back to their families / villages (sort of what happened with a lot of Confederate forces during Sherman's March to the Sea).

And of course, not all able bodied men or women would have been conscripted or served, either because of political connections and/or bribes (see Russia today) or because they were in some essential role.

[castlebravo92]

^^^ Poland's age demographics in 1998. Say the black is 80% mortality, and the red is ~50% mortality, and your typical 100 pop village might look something like this in terms of age and gender breakdown in 2000 or 2001:

Age	Male	Female
100+	0	0
95-99	0	0
90-94	0	0
85-89	0	0
80-84	0	0
75-79	0	1
70-74	1	1
65-69	1	1
60-64	2	2
55-59	2	3
50-54	3	3
45-49	5	6
40-44	5	6
35-39	3	6
30-34	2	5
25-29	3	4
20-24	3	5
15-19	5	6
10-14	6	6
5-9	1	1
0-4	1	1

with 43 men and 57 women.

[Tegyrius]

This is an interesting topic. I'm currently running a West Marches-style campaign under 4e rules, with the PCs based out of a small village some distance southeast of Lodz. My non-research-driven numbers for the local population when we started the campaign were:

2 infants
5 children/pre-teens
3 teenagers
10 young adults (military service age)
19 mature adults (above service age)
15 elderly

I've assumed a roughly 1:2 male:female ratio for the adults, slightly more even for the kids and elders.

Since game start, the PCs have added two more young adults, one elder, and two teenagers (with four more teenagers living in the area but not quite brought in from the cold yet). There's also a five-person partisan group from Tomaszow Mazowiecki that's currently staying with the village while two members receive medical care for critical injuries.

- C.

[Raellus]

Thanks guys. This has all been very helpful so far.

Certain folks would be exempt from conscription, I imagine. I don't know to what extent Polish farms were collectivized in the 1980s, but I imagine that at least some farmers and farm laborers would be considered "essential workers" and therefore off limits to the draft. Even at war, a country has still got to eat!

I'd add in a couple of people with serious physical or mental disabilities to the 16-60 range bracket, people that would have been excluded from conscripted levies.

Re deserters, absolutely, but I'd like to figure out a baseline first before adding them in. I'm sure some villages would have their own little militia made up of deserters; others would not, making them prime spots for a hero PC party to make a difference (a la Seven Samurai). The latter is what I'm trying to build. That baseline will be key- after establishing that, it shouldn't be difficult to generate variations.

On top of the baseline, I'd also add a severely wounded veteran or two- people that were disabled by war wounds and therefore mustered out of the military before returning to their home village.

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