Mexican Army Sourcebook

[Turboswede]

I just sent Paul my Polish Army Sourcebook and revised V2 timeline and I am currently working on a Mexican Army Sourcebook as a follow up. It’s hard to reconcile the T2K images of Mexican tanks across the Rio Grande given the equipment levels of the Mexican Army as of 1996 per Jane’s Armor & Artillery. I mean really, how would Mexico invade America with M3 and M5 tanks that were marginal performers in 1945? I know that the invasion was supposedly to have occurred after the 1997 nuclear exchange, but I think the City of Dallas police department has more armor than the Mexican army (they both use the LAV-150). Seriously, the exhibits at the Yuma proving ground’s museum would have a good chance of repelling a Mexican invasion.

I like the concept of a Mexican invasion though and would like to include it in any T2K US scenario so the Mexican Army needs a good overhaul. I figure some good old Peronist nationalism / militarism needs to be infused into the Mexicans sometime in the late 80s. I am going with the premise that the Mexican military/political establishment could have cozy up to the Germans prior to unification and entered into an agreement for domestic production of armored vehicles. If production were moderate then I don’t think the US would have raised any objections, especially if the decision to “modernize� the armed forces came at the tail end of the 80’s when the cold war was still going strong. I picked the Germans because I know a bit about the TAM project and the support Germany provided to Argentina following the Malvinas war.

I guess France could work too, but the Leopard I is sooooooooooo much better than the AMX-30, why would anyone have bought a tank with such a soft skin…but I digress. Another option would be the US (or maybe Spain) setting up an M48 production line for the Mexicans. I avoided this route because I would think a Nationalist Mexico would want to discourage reliance on U.S. designs.

Anyway, I would like any ideas about how Mexico’s arms procurement policies could have led to a force capable of sending “armored columns across the Rio Grande� (per the original rule sets)

[weswood]

I don't know about the Mexican Arms Procurement policy, but what about Mexican Special Forces types in conjunction with La Familia/MS 13 sneaking across the border with the mass of immigrants. Said forces then sabotaging the US forces supply chain so that US forces were unable to respond in time to repel the Mexican Armed Forces.

[Turboswede]

Originally Posted by weswood

Said forces then sabotaging the US forces supply chain so that US forces were unable to respond in time to repel the Mexican Armed Forces.

Point taken, but there still needs to be some kind of Mexican Armed Forces. As it stands a single M60A3 with an ERA package (for the odd Milan) could pretty much take out the whole Mexican army circa real world 1996. Without some kind of force I think one could justify a terror campaign or even a guerrilla war (although in the desert that’s a tough one), but not an invasion capturing California, Arizona, New Mexico and most of Texas.

[kato13]

The Mexican Invasion is one of the three hardest points for me to reconcile (The Alaskan invasion and failure of US Continuance of government plan being the others). I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

The only thing I can imagine the Mexicans having an advantage in is fuel and therefore mobility. Even with a fuel advantage I cannot see Mexican air power being decisive. One they are attacking the US's primary ADA school , and two the aircraft they have are generations behind what the US could send to counter them, even taking into account limited fuel.

[Turboswede]

Originally Posted by kato13

I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

I never thought of that, maybe it was the French

[Turboswede]

Originally Posted by kato13

Even with a fuel advantage I cannot see Mexican air power being decisive.

Um, thats just funny.

Combat aircraft constituting the Mexican Air Amada, Circa 1996
10 F-5E Tiger II
2 F-5F Advanced trainers
12 AT-33s Jet trainers
12 Bell 205, 206, and 212 armed helicopters

I agree, I seriously doubt that Mexican airpower would have been decisive.

[Fusilier]

Originally Posted by kato13

I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

How about Sovs hit to deny to USA the fuel... blame the USA. How is Mexico going to know the truth? The book also states they elect a marxist government so they may be more willing to believe Moscow as opposed to the Imperialists.

Originally Posted by kato13

The only thing I can imagine the Mexicans having an advantage in is fuel and therefore mobility. Even with a fuel advantage I cannot see Mexican air power being decisive. One they are attacking the US's primary ADA school , and two the aircraft they have are generations behind what the US could send to counter them, even taking into account limited fuel.

Slow build up from allies... particularly Cuba? Not the Cuba of today, but the Cuba of the 80s. That's where the tanks, artillery and aircraft come from. Add in some Nicaraguans and maybe even Venezuela (if you want to advance what's his name's ascension to power.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Fusilier

How about Sovs hit to deny to USA the fuel... blame the USA. How is Mexico going to know the truth? The book also states they elect a marxist government so they may be more willing to believe Moscow as opposed to the Imperialists.

I fully agree that 95% of the population including parts of the Civilian leadership could be convinced of this, but I would expect the higher-ups in the military would have serious doubts.

[Benjamin]

I think the only way to have the Mexican invasion happen is to assume that oil paid for a military build up some time during the late eighties/ early nineties. The price of oil went up during this time giving Mexico the ability to partially recover, and perhaps pay for a rebuilt military. The 1988 presidential elections were very controversial due to a computer failure in the election process and it is possible that President Salinas, who was already deemed a fraud by some could end up assassinated. This would cause chaos and open the door for a national socialist to take power on an anti-American platform.

During the nuclear exchange, I've always assumed it was the Soviet that struck the Mexican refineries. First of all, despite Division Cuba, which seems to be a rushed on the fly commitment, there is no way the Soviets can benefit from Mexican oil. Second there is a good chance that the Soviets already had nukes targeted on Mexico during the actual Cold War. Finally, I just don't see the US nuking a non-nuke neighbor especially given the chain of command chaos occurring within the US.

As for arming Mexico...
MBT: OF-40, an Italian designed and built export MBT. It was similar to, and even used some parts from the Leo 1. In our timeline only the UAE purchased it.

The remaining vehicles could come from a mix of countries but I think they'd primarily be from Italy, France and perhaps Brazil.

Benjamin

[Raellus]

Just to play devil's advocate/v1.0 canon apologist, here are a couple things to think about.

Although not a match for an M60, the Mexicans do have quite a few Panhard ERC-90 Lynx armored cars with 90mm guns and several Panhard VBL M-11 light armored cars fitted with Milan ATGMs.

With their recent history of buying AFVs from France, I can see them buying the French Army's old AMX-30 (being replaced in French service by the LeClerc) MBTs (this is the most logical MBT procurement options listed here, IMO).

They also use the German HWK-11 tracked APC (sources suggest they've got around 40 of them). I can see the Germans building and/or retrofitting some of them with high velocity 90mm or 105mm turreted guns, creating de facto tanks.

The Mexicans retired their M4 Shermans quite some time ago but I can see them paying (w/ high priced oil export revenues) the Israelis (experts at getting the most out of the Sherman tank) to soup them up. Upgunned Israeli Shermans routinely knocked out T-54/55 and T-62 tanks during the '73 Yom Kippur War.

There's always the Chinese. A lot of the tanks (mostly Soviet T-rip-offs) they build are marketed for export. I'm sure Mexico could have bought a bunch before the the Russo-Chinese War began.

I also like the idea of other Central/South American nations sending "expeditionary forces" to Mexico to assist in an offensive against the U.S.

Also, as Wes said, Mexican Army SF would have infiltrated dozens of teams across the rather porous border in the months and weeks prior to the invasion. They would launch a series of attacks against C&C and transportation networks immediately preceding the conventional invasion.

I was researching this same topic a few months ago and came across these sites. I hope they prove useful to you.

http://www.paperlessarchives.com/mexico.html

http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/mxtoc.html

Lastly, perhaps the Soviets approached the Mexicans with promises of economic and military aid (Division Cuba being the down payment) in a sort of Zimmerman Note parallel.

[Turboswede]

Thanks everyone. The more I think about it the more I could see the Mexicans taking France's AMX-30s. I am sure that the French would unload them at a bargain price (always important to SEDENA). Granted, the T-55 and Chinese Type 59 are arguably better tanks (better armor, similar mobility, worse gun) but I think the US would have vehemently opposed any arms transfers from the Warsaw Pact or PRC to Mexico, especially in the late 80’s. The nice thing about France is that we are nominal allies, but we let the French sell arms to just about anyone.

I think the Mexican version of the AMX-30 would need ERA. Without it they would never get past San Diego or El Paso. Every 16 year old kid would be punching holes in them with M72s.

For the APC/IFV I think they could make some pretty cool derivatives of the “DN� series which is basically a LAV-150. Put a 25mm cannon and a Milan on it and you have a good IFV, etc. Only problem is wheels vs. tracks, I don’t think that would be a major problem in the desert/urban setting (look at how we employ LAVs in Iraq).

[Benjamin]

Buying from France is probably the way to go for Mexico. Perhaps they could augment the piss poor AMX-30s with a regiment of AMX-40s, an improved version offered solely for export.

As for a fifth column of Mexicans arising in America, I don't buy it. Most Mexicans, especially in the pre-Fox era, came to the US because it wasn't Mexico and they had no particular love for the Mexican government or socialism. Pro-Mexican infiltrators are a possibility but may end up not being super reliable for the Mexican military.

Depending on when and how the Mexican government went socialist, there is the possibility of an interesting campaign based along the Mexican-American border. Unrest in Mexico, especially involving a mix of drug lords and socialists, could prompt a level of American intervention. With the advent of war in Asia and Europe attention would turn elsewhere and Mexico, bitter over American meddling, would be left to its own devices. From there it could escalate into a civil war in Mexico and a guerrilla war in the Southwest US. When the Mexican invasion finally occurs the few forces left along the Mexican border would be hard pressed to halt any type of offensive.

And remember the Mexican Civil War began prior to the invasion of the US. It was the Civil War that prompted the flood of immigrants that traveled into America. Given that America had been hit by nukes and was in a deplorable state of affairs, one can surmise that the Mexican Civil War was a particularly bitter affair which brutalized the civilian population. Given what we've seen from communists elsewhere (Pol Pot, Idi Amin, Stalin and so on) its not hard to believe that living in a war ravaged America still looked great compared to the hell that was communist held Mexico.

Benjamin

[Turboswede]

My timeline is based off of the V2 version and assumes that communism faded away after 1990. I like the idea of a right-wing ultra nationalist Mexico invading the US to protect ethnic Mexicans from the gringos up north. Besides, the bad guys in Latin America have always historically been on the nationalist right (Pinochet, Molina, Videla, MartÃÂ*nez de Perón, etc.)

Another catch with the Mexican invasion is that the peace time army in 1995 was roughly 10% Hispanic, assuming that Hispanics would enlist and be drafted at a similar rate, that would mean every squad would have one guy who would be perceived as a possible traitor. Not very good for morale I would think.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

Buying from France is probably the way to go for Mexico. Perhaps they could augment the piss poor AMX-30s with a regiment of AMX-40s, an improved version offered solely for export.

Good call. Perhaps, as part of the same arms deal, Mexico could have acquired a squadron's worth of Mirage 2000s. This would go a very little ways to address the gross imbalance in the air but at least it's something.

Originally Posted by Benjamin

As for a fifth column of Mexicans arising in America, I don't buy it. Most Mexicans, especially in the pre-Fox era, came to the US because it wasn't Mexico and they had no particular love for the Mexican government or socialism. Pro-Mexican infiltrators are a possibility but may end up not being super reliable for the Mexican military.

I don't think anyone is suggesting a 5th Column. The idea is that Mexican army commandos would cross the border ahead of the offensive. If drug and people smugglers can do it, why can't Mexican SF? They would come across dressed in civilian garb. If caught without weapons, they'll claim to be illegal migrants. If caught with weapons, they're smugglers. I live in Southern Arizona and illegal border crossings happen every day.

One last thought: When the Mexicans invade, the U.S. is in a state of disarray due to the TDM strikes. Also, its best and brightest have already deployed to Europe, Korea, and CENTCOM is preparing to deploy to the Middle East. So, the Mexican army, primed and ready and miraculously achieving strategic and/or operation surprise, would have at least a little combat experience (at least in the officer corps) with campaigns against the Zapatista rebels in Southern Mexico and the long-running campaign against Mexicos narco-cartels.

Also, expect the Mexicans to be pumped up on nationalist sentiment (regardless of whether it's a left or right wing gov. in charge)- "let's take back what is rightfully ours!"

[Targan]

Originally Posted by kato13

I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

Last week someone pointed out that SLBMs launched at France would allow an attacker to plausibly deny having nuked Franch targets.So whether or not it was the Soviets that nuked Mexico, if they denied it how would the Mexicans know any better?

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I also like the idea of other Central/South American nations sending "expeditionary forces" to Mexico to assist in an offensive against the U.S.

In my campaign that is also what happened in Panama.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Turboswede

I think the Mexican version of the AMX-30 would need ERA. Without it they would never get past San Diego or El Paso. Every 16 year old kid would be punching holes in them with M72s.

Umm, I know that most parts of the US have very liberal weapons laws compared to my country but surely that statement was made in jest? Are you telling me that it is easy (and affordable) for 16 year olds in Texas to get their hands on LAWs? If so its a wonder Texas doesn't have more bank jobs and armoured car robberies.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by kato13

I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

Perhaps it was the French?
Although Mexico isn't now, nor is likely to ever be a military power, leaving their industry untouched after the war might lead to them being an economic competitor to France (France itself having been nuked, if not back to the stone age, at least half a century or so).
Destroying Mexico's future and it's ability to assist any other potential rivals to French power, might be something considered by elements in the French government.
With the nuclear exchanges of late 1997 as a cover, France cements their future role as a superpower....

And with France possibly selling old military equipment off to Mexico beforehand, it muddies the waters even more. The sale of such equipment is also in France's long term best interests as it potentially sets two of their rivals at each others throats reducing future pressure on France.

A little paranoid perhaps, but fits better than either Nato or the WP nuking them.

[Turboswede]

Originally Posted by Targan

Umm, I know that most parts of the US have very liberal weapons laws compared to my country but surely that statement was made in jest? Are you telling me that it is easy (and affordable) for 16 year olds in Texas to get their hands on LAWs? If so its a wonder Texas doesn't have more bank jobs and armoured car robberies.

Well, assuming its 1998, the 2nd year of US involvement in the war and a year after the Nuclear exchange. The feds (civ or mil) probobly have better things to do than chase folks down for ATF violations

I was also thinking Germany at the end of WW2, they were passing out panzerfausts to 12 year olds like they were candy.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Perhaps it was the French?

So the Mexican's in Texas are just on their way to Quebec for revenge?

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Turboswede

Um, thats just funny.

Combat aircraft constituting the Mexican Air Amada, Circa 1996
10 F-5E Tiger II
2 F-5F Advanced trainers
12 AT-33s Jet trainers
12 Bell 205, 206, and 212 armed helicopters

I agree, I seriously doubt that Mexican airpower would have been decisive.

Back in the late-1980s when Northrop was still trying to market the F-20 Tigershark, the Mexicans were very interested, but the sale was blocked by both the Reagan and George HW Bush administrations. Perhaps under other circumstances it might have gone through -- such as if US aircraft manufacturers might need the export sales to finance even more advanced aircraft for the US?

[Targan]

So what ended up happening with the F-20 Tigershark. I know, I could just go unleash some Google-Fu to find out but I'm confident one or more of you clever forumites will be able to tell me in a nice, concise way. And for that matter what would happen to the F-20 Tigershark in the T2K (version 1) timeline?

Edit: Slow day at work (public holiday in my state) so I've had a bit of a look at Wikipedia's entry on the Tigershark. As far as I can tell it (and its predecessors the F-5E and F5-G) were a very good designs, quite cheap considering their performance and were very much viable but Northrop was repeatedly shafted by the policies of the Carter and subsequent administrations. So, in the T2K world might the Tigershark or something much like it have ended up being much more common in the air forces of countries allied to the USA? All it would take would be for the Regan administration to have been a bit more paranoid about things like selling F-16s to Pakistan and Bob's your uncle.

[Abbott Shaull]

Originally Posted by Targan

Umm, I know that most parts of the US have very liberal weapons laws compared to my country but surely that statement was made in jest? Are you telling me that it is easy (and affordable) for 16 year olds in Texas to get their hands on LAWs? If so its a wonder Texas doesn't have more bank jobs and armoured car robberies.

No just a Marine camp out of one San Diego, and Army base outside of El Paso, TX actually several post in TX where one would be able to find arms once something like this started.

Just some thoughts.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by Targan

So what ended up happening with the F-20 Tigershark. I know, I could just go unleash some Google-Fu to find out but I'm confident one or more of you clever forumites will be able to tell me in a nice, concise way. And for that matter what would happen to the F-20 Tigershark in the T2K (version 1) timeline?

Edit: Slow day at work (public holiday in my state) so I've had a bit of a look at Wikipedia's entry on the Tigershark. As far as I can tell it (and its predecessors the F-5E and F5-G) were a very good designs, quite cheap considering their performance and were very much viable but Northrop was repeatedly shafted by the policies of the Carter and subsequent administrations. So, in the T2K world might the Tigershark or something much like it have ended up being much more common in the air forces of countries allied to the USA? All it would take would be for the Regan administration to have been a bit more paranoid about things like selling F-16s to Pakistan and Bob's your uncle.

The DC Group has decided to put the F-20 into full scale production as an export fighter. (It is also mentioned in service in Iran in canon, in RDF sourcebook and Challenge magazine). Basically it was sold as a replacement for F-5s in service with a number of US Allies - especially China and Iran, but also Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and possibly Mexico.

It was produced at the same plants that turn out F/A-18s. As the demand from the US military for F/A-18s increases, production of F-20s is switched to facilities that were converted to military aircraft production - notably the Gulfstream business jet production plant in Savannah, Georgia and the Cessna, Lear and Beechcraft business jet plants in Wichita and Independence, Kansas.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Targan

So what ended up happening with the F-20 Tigershark. I know, I could just go unleash some Google-Fu to find out but I'm confident one or more of you clever forumites will be able to tell me in a nice, concise way. And for that matter what would happen to the F-20 Tigershark in the T2K (version 1) timeline?

IRL, there actually was a lot of interest in the F-20, by Mexico, some South American countries, a couple of Middle Eastern countries, and (most notably), Taiwan. And for political reasons, the US Government blocked the sales each time. Northrop ended up with no one interested in the F-20 that they could legally sell it to, and eventually stopped trying.

[Raellus]

Although I think the French weapons route is probably the most realistic, I don't think Chinese weapons should be ruled out.

Yeah, I don't think the U.S. would be too thrilled about it. They'd probably try to block it. But, the Paki's, a long-time ally in Central Asia, bought a lot of Chinese gear (tanks and aircraft) back in the '70s and '80s and the U.S. never cut them off completely (although, IIRC, they held up a shipment of F-16s for a while). If the Mexicans cut a great deal with the PRC, there's not much the U.S. could really do that wouldn't seriously harm its relationship with both parties.

Perhaps the Mexicans could have used a potential big-time arms deal with China as a way of leveraging the U.S. into making them a favorable deal on F-20 Tigersharks and M-60s and/or Stingrays (i.e. "Either cut us a good deal on your American-made gear or we'll buy what we need from the Chinese- they're offering us a real ganga."

But I still think AMX-30/40s and Mirages are the way to go to boost Mexico's conventional warfighting power prior to the invasion of the U.S.

[Benjamin]

Well, it took a little digging, but I've found the info I was looking for...and I was a bit wrong. The Mexican Civil War does not happen until 1999, after the invasion of the US. This rules the Civil War out from being the cause of the mass migration to the US.

But, the timeline in V2.2 (which I fall back upon, so long as it does not directly contradict V1 canon, since it is more detailed) states that Mexico was hit in 1997 during the first round of strategic nuclear exchanges. Also, Division Cuba does not move to Mexico until 1998, well after Mexico is it by nukes. This means that it was almost certainly the Soviets who hit the Mexican oil refineries so as to deny their use by the US. I'm of the mind that this in no way prevents Mexico from making use of Division Cuba to assist in its invasion of the US. The general populace of Mexico would not know who hit them with nukes and it is unlikely the left-leaning government would be willing to tell the truth. All that is revealed is that the Gringos are killing Mexicans along the border and the Soviets have graciously offered to lend their support in helping Mexico to regain the land stolen 150 years prior.

Bigger lies have been foisted upon people before, and given the Mexican government's efforts to distract the population with a bout of cross border adventurism it seems to fit. Also, an invasion of the US allows the coalition leftist government to get right of large elements of the regular army, an institution that has been historically conservative in Mexican politics. Of course this doesn't save the country from civil war and chaos, but there is a crazy logic to it all.

Of course 300 years down the road in 2300AD the history books may not know the truth, and people of that era may actually believe that it was the US that nuked Mexico.

Benjamin

P.S. One thing I based a whole 2300AD campaign around almost a decade ago was the canon breaking statement in the Survivors Guide to the UK that stated that NATO were the first to use tac nukes in Europe (p.8). After finding documents in one of the few remaining hidden stockpiles, the PCs were able to prove that this was French fabrication used hundreds of years ago to place war guilt upon America, Germany and Britain. It was great fun to follow the political fallout that wracked the globe...until the Kafers invaded.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by chico20854

The DC Group has decided to put the F-20 into full scale production as an export fighter. (It is also mentioned in service in Iran in canon, in RDF sourcebook and Challenge magazine). Basically it was sold as a replacement for F-5s in service with a number of US Allies - especially China and Iran, but also Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and possibly Mexico.

It was produced at the same plants that turn out F/A-18s. As the demand from the US military for F/A-18s increases, production of F-20s is switched to facilities that were converted to military aircraft production - notably the Gulfstream business jet production plant in Savannah, Georgia and the Cessna, Lear and Beechcraft business jet plants in Wichita and Independence, Kansas.

Very good. I like the work of the DC Working Group. Its been a while since I've had a proper review read through of the RDF Sourcebook and all the T2K Challenge articles so I wasn't aware that the Tigershark was mentioned there but I like what you've said Chico and so it shall be in my campaign. Thanks for the feedback.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

One thing I based a whole 2300AD campaign around almost a decade ago was the canon breaking statement in the Survivors Guide to the UK that stated that NATO were the first to use tac nukes in Europe (p.8).

You'll probably find on closer inspection that nuclear weapons were first used in the east. I'm not sure off hand if it was China or the Soviets who threw the first one, but I think it was the later.
After the war in the east was effectively won, the excess units were transfered back to the west in time to halt the NATO offensive into the Soviet Union and throw them back into Germany. NATO, in a desperate attempt to halt the oncoming juggernaut started using nukes but barely managed to slow them down a little.

The way it's written, it's a fair assumption that if Nato did not use tactical nukes in 1997, the war in Europe would have been over and done with by Christmas of that year with an almost certain Pact victory and communist control of virtually all of the continent.

France would have been left with no choice but to fight or face destruction as I doubt the rampaging communist forces would have halted at the Rhine with total and utter victory over Captialism just a few hundred miles further on...

So yes, NATO fired first in Europe, but did they really have a choice?

[Targan]

It don't think Benjamin was saying that the first use of tac nukes in the entire Twilight war was in Europe. It is very clear that the nukes first flew in the eastern theatre.

As for who lobbed the first nukes in Europe I think that in light of contradictory statements in different books it comes down to either individual GM choices or (in my case) going with the consensus view of the wise and well read folks from this forum.

I do take your point Leggy about tac nukes in Europe stopped the Soviets where had nukes not been used so extensively the Soviets might well have rolled right through Europe.