OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[pmulcahy11b]

I agree that Prigozhin is a dead man walking. He might live longer if he gets out of Russia fast (and not to Belarus), perhaps to some Wagner safe haven, but probably not. Russia is quite adept at going out of country to assassinate people, even to the US and UK.

GEN Petreus seems to think that Prigozhin lost his nerve/came to his senses way too late.

[Targan]

Prigozhin was never going to "bring the Defence Ministry to justice" let alone topple Putin, but that doesn't matter. Putin has been shown to be weak, bordering on pathetic. These events have been hugely embarrassing for Putin. History may show this to be the beginning of the end for him.

[Heffe]

Originally Posted by Targan

Prigozhin was never going to "bring the Defence Ministry to justice" let alone topple Putin, but that doesn't matter. Putin has been shown to be weak, bordering on pathetic. These events have been hugely embarrassing for Putin. History may show this to be the beginning of the end for him.

Completely agreed. The mafia lieutenant just made the don look like a weak old fool - it's not going to go well for anyone involved. Also Targan, your Machiavelli quote signature is particularly apt for a number of reasons on this one.

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

I agree that Prigozhin is a dead man walking. He might live longer if he gets out of Russia fast (and not to Belarus), perhaps to some Wagner safe haven, but probably not. Russia is quite adept at going out of country to assassinate people, even to the US and UK.

GEN Petreus seems to think that Prigozhin lost his nerve/came to his senses way too late.

Quite correct in my view. Even in Byelorussia, Prigozhin should avoid walking by open windows, riding on escalators or eating anything lest he suffer a dreadful "accident" like so many former Kremlin plutocrats have recently.

[Raellus]

Re Prig, he's probably a dead man walking. There's still a chance that Putin gives Prig an opportunity to redeem himself by allowing him to continue to direct Wagner forces from Belarus. That way, both parties can have their cake and eat it too.

It's really hard to see Putin keeping Prig around indefinitely, though. One article I read yesterday suggested that Prig might try to run as a candidate in the next presidential election. If Putin plans to run for reelection again (and I've seen nothing to suggest that he won't), I can't see him allowing that to happen.

Now, here's some good news:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...bef42633&ei=17

Hopefully, this is the first of much more to come.

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[Raellus]

I'm pleased to see the US finally acquiesce to sending DPCIM shells to Ukraine. The timing could have been a lot better, though. DPCIMs are more effective against trench systems than conventional artillery rounds; some versions are deadly for masses of armored vehicles in the open. If the Ukrainians had those thousands of pledged DPCIM rounds 1-2 months ago, I suspect their summer offensive would have made even more progress by now, with fewer UAF casualties. Better late than never, I guess.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ster-munitions

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[kcdusk]

I think i'm against Ukraine using cluster munitions.

Yes, they help in the short term. But i worry that after the war, Ukraine is left with unexploded devices in their own yard. Causing civilian deaths or maimings for years to come.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by kcdusk

I think i'm against Ukraine using cluster munitions.

Yes, they help in the short term. But i worry that after the war, Ukraine is left with unexploded devices in their own yard. Causing civilian deaths or maimings for years to come.

I would generally agree except that the Ukrainians are going to dump those cluster munitions into Russian defensive lines that are already filled with unmarked minefields and UXO... that land is already going to have to be cleared before civilians enter it, whether or not there are unexploded bomblets in it.

On a practical side, DP-ICM are much more effective than HE rounds. Given that the supply of howitzer barrels is running out in the West, the cluster munitions allow the Ukrainians to keep their artillery going longer before their guns are shot out.

Just my opinion...

[Tegyrius]

Originally Posted by chico20854

I would generally agree except that the Ukrainians are going to dump those cluster munitions into Russian defensive lines that are already filled with unmarked minefields and UXO... that land is already going to have to be cleared before civilians enter it, whether or not there are unexploded bomblets in it.

I have a professional contact who's worked with demining and UXO teams in Syria. His analysis was much the same - any use of cluster munitions by Ukraine will be a minor incremental addition to the work already ahead.

- C.

[Heffe]

Originally Posted by kcdusk

I think i'm against Ukraine using cluster munitions.

Yes, they help in the short term. But i worry that after the war, Ukraine is left with unexploded devices in their own yard. Causing civilian deaths or maimings for years to come.

I felt that way for a bit as well, but I have to keep reminding myself that Russia's aims still haven't shifted from "total subjugation and absorption of Ukraine and her people". The way I see it, Ukraine has to weigh the risk of future injury to her population, vs. Ukraine simply not existing as an independent, sovereign nation. On top of that, Russia has shown numerous times so far in the war that they're more than happy to waste Ukrainian civilians themselves, and no doubt Ukraine is already going to have to spend many year de-mining their country after this is all over.

The ugliest of calculus here breaks down to "How many lives will be lost to future UXO explosions vs. how many lives might be saved by speeding up the end of this conflict through the use of cluster munitions?"