OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[micromachine]

The BRM is fitted with the 2A28 Grom 73mm smoothbore which uses rockets as ammunition, which is also used by the SPG-9. This further confuses the issue.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by micromachine

The BRM is fitted with the 2A28 Grom 73mm smoothbore which uses rockets as ammunition, which is also used by the SPG-9. This further confuses the issue.

That must be what the author was referencing. Thanks.

The very brief article linked below succinctly describes the challenges the UAF is facing during its Spring-Summer counteroffensive.

https://cepa.org/article/twitter-bub...nteroffensive/

The last paragraph really drives the point home:

Originally Posted by CEPA

"In other words, Ukraine is trying what no single NATO country has done since the alliance was created in 1949: to conduct large-scale combined arms maneuver operations against a near-peer or peer adversary."

Also, the NYT reports that the destruction of the Kakhova Dam was likely perpetrated by the Russians by detonating explosives placed in an internal passageway, as "Nova Kakhovka dam on Dnipro river was designed to withstand almost any attack imaginable – from the outside."

War Zone reports that the Ukrainians might be taking advantage of one possibly unanticipated consequence of the dam's destruction- the lowering of the water level of the reservoir behind it- by staging landings on the left bank of the Dnipro.

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[Heffe]

I've been following along with the war updates fairly closely - one of the tidbits that I've seen pop up a few times is that Ukraine has only committed two of it's nine new brigades to the counteroffensive thus far. If true, why do you all think they're holding so much in reserve?

A common theory that's been posited is that Ukraine is attempting to force Russia to commit its own reserves first and make Russian repositioning difficult before committing the bulk of their own forces in order to prevent the counteroffensive from getting flanked and cut off.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by micromachine

The BRM is fitted with the 2A28 Grom 73mm smoothbore which uses rockets as ammunition, which is also used by the SPG-9. This further confuses the issue.

The 2A28's ammunition is based on the SPG-9's, but isn't exactly the same -- the ammunition isn't interchangeable.

[Raellus]

Thanks, Vespers and Paul. Paul, did you see that piece about the Cold War era experimental Polish assault rifle I posted in the Best That Never Was thread?

In other news, I bet Putin is really wishing he'd kept his dog, Wagner, on a much shorter leash.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-w...ff7db5b1bded34

First stop on Wagner's 2023 Mutiny Tour: Rostov

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-w...ff7db5b1bded34

Slava Ukraini!

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[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Thanks, Vespers and Paul. Paul, did you see that piece about the Cold War era experimental Polish assault rifle I posted in the Best That Never Was thread?

Sounds interesting, if unfinished.

I'm on the Golo diet now. I have more energy now, and have already lost a little weight. I may work on that.

I just finished a major update to the F-15 Eagle. It's not posted yet, though.

[Raellus]

Glad to hear that you're feeling more energetic, Paul.

In mutiny news, just like that, it ended almost as soon as it began. The poll had been up all of 15 minutes when news broke that Prigozhin had ordered his troops to cease fire and turn back short of Moscow.

One really has to wonder what Prigozhin was thinking. Did he really think he could overthrow Putin? Did he believe, going in, that he could force Putin to the bargaining table? Wagner hadn't yet suffered a big defeat at the hand of Loyalist forces, so why did he decide to call it off?

This BBC article does a really good job explaining why this all most likely happened.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66013532

After all of this drama, I suspect that Prigozhin will not be dying of natural causes or old age.

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[pmulcahy11b]

I agree that Prigozhin is a dead man walking. He might live longer if he gets out of Russia fast (and not to Belarus), perhaps to some Wagner safe haven, but probably not. Russia is quite adept at going out of country to assassinate people, even to the US and UK.

GEN Petreus seems to think that Prigozhin lost his nerve/came to his senses way too late.

[Targan]

Prigozhin was never going to "bring the Defence Ministry to justice" let alone topple Putin, but that doesn't matter. Putin has been shown to be weak, bordering on pathetic. These events have been hugely embarrassing for Putin. History may show this to be the beginning of the end for him.

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

I agree that Prigozhin is a dead man walking. He might live longer if he gets out of Russia fast (and not to Belarus), perhaps to some Wagner safe haven, but probably not. Russia is quite adept at going out of country to assassinate people, even to the US and UK.

GEN Petreus seems to think that Prigozhin lost his nerve/came to his senses way too late.

Quite correct in my view. Even in Byelorussia, Prigozhin should avoid walking by open windows, riding on escalators or eating anything lest he suffer a dreadful "accident" like so many former Kremlin plutocrats have recently.