T2K Today: Korea

[Jason Weiser]

I think what they're afraid of is the Kims nuking them or some of their other WMD being used to stave them off. China had enough trouble with SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, what if the Norks hit Chinese troops with oh, I dunno? Weaponized Smallpox?

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

I think what they're afraid of is the Kims nuking them or some of their other WMD being used to stave them off. China had enough trouble with SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, what if the Norks hit Chinese troops with oh, I dunno? Weaponized Smallpox?

I agree that the RPC has every right to be nervous about the Norks (great name!). It just seems like they're not worried enough. If having another nuclear-armed neighbor right next door is something they really fear, why do the Chinese almost always run cold when it comes to taking a hard line against the Norks? They seem to be the last ones on the bus whenever the international community tries to turn the screws on the Norks. They've been more supportive of our efforts to take the Kims down a peg over the last couple of years but they could be doing a whole lot more. Why aren't they?

[Dogger]

I Remember all the doom predictions about Saddam's "million man army" in Gulf War I. How they were a bunch of "hardened combat veterans" after years of war against Iran etc etc. We saw how that went.

I don't doubt the NK's will fight should it come to that, I think they'll be much more aggressive than the Iraqi's turned out to be in GWI...but they're still a conscripted army from a dirt poor country that hasn't seen combat in 50+ years, where as the US military is chuck full of combat veterans ATM.

I'm not sure of the state of the SK Army, but I'm sure it's 1000% better than it was in 1950. Add to all this the fact that I think the Allies would in short order control the skies over NK and that the NK forces will probably be in the field en masse and thus be subject to all the punishment such forces suffer when caught out in the open.

Also, there's very little possibility of a massive 'sneak attack' this time with SAT sitting overhead all day everyday. And should the Dear Leader get stupid enough to lob missiles at Japan...I'm not so sure they would sit this one out.

I'm also not to worked up about and WMD from NK being used outside of the Korean Peninsular, we have Ticonderoga class cruisers that now have the capability of -at least- shooting at outbound ICBMs and there's the ABM sites in Alaska that have again scored -at least some- hits on test targets that might head for the US West Coast...and any NK aircraft trying to make some kind of 'bomb run' on Japan or Okinawa would be lit up by Allied aircraft/navy ships long before they got anywhere IMO.

Yes, from a manpower POV the US would be challenged in the opening phase of combat, however air assets could easily be shifted from the ME and possibly offset NK numbers on the ground until greater forces arrived.

This is of course just my opinion on all this.

[pmulcahy11b]

We don't even need to be in South Korea anymore -- the ROKs are more than capable of taking care of the North Koreans by themselves. That was almost true when I was there in the late 1980s, and it's definitely true now. Heck, they have some Russian-made equipment that's way better than the North Korean's Russian equipment -- the fall of the Soviet Union's been a good thing for South Korea. The real reason we're still in the ROK is as a symbol, to let North Korea know we're willing to help the ROK. (Personally, I don't think we have enough troops available for more than a token force these days -- the era when there would have been a sudden, massive intervention in the case of an invasion by the North is over.)

[Dog 6]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

We don't even need to be in South Korea anymore -- the ROKs are more than capable of taking care of the North Koreans by themselves. That was almost true when I was there in the late 1980s, and it's definitely true now. Heck, they have some Russian-made equipment that's way better than the North Korean's Russian equipment -- the fall of the Soviet Union's been a good thing for South Korea. The real reason we're still in the ROK is as a symbol, to let North Korea know we're willing to help the ROK. (Personally, I don't think we have enough troops available for more than a token force these days -- the era when there would have been a sudden, massive intervention in the case of an invasion by the North is over.)

that was most definitely true when I was in ROK in 1993. if the nk's are dumb enough to invade they are done for, with or with out our help.

[Cpl. Kalkwarf]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

We don't even need to be in South Korea anymore -- the ROKs are more than capable of taking care of the North Koreans by themselves. That was almost true when I was there in the late 1980s, and it's definitely true now. Heck, they have some Russian-made equipment that's way better than the North Korean's Russian equipment -- the fall of the Soviet Union's been a good thing for South Korea. The real reason we're still in the ROK is as a symbol, to let North Korea know we're willing to help the ROK. (Personally, I don't think we have enough troops available for more than a token force these days -- the era when there would have been a sudden, massive intervention in the case of an invasion by the North is over.)

Ditto, what he said.

[Eddie]

Originally Posted by Dogger

I don't doubt the NK's will fight should it come to that, I think they'll be much more aggressive than the Iraqi's turned out to be in GWI...but they're still a conscripted army from a dirt poor country that hasn't seen combat in 50+ years, where as the US military is chuck full of combat veterans ATM.

Six thousand men and 21,000 artillery pieces is pretty daunting though.

[Dogger]

Originally Posted by Eddie

Six thousand men and 21,000 artillery pieces is pretty daunting though.

Agreed, and they will probably pound Seoul into the ground at the onset. However, the location of a lot of those guns is well known and no doubt first on the target list.

[Eddie]

Originally Posted by Dogger

Agreed, and they will probably pound Seoul into the ground at the onset. However, the location of a lot of those guns is well known and no doubt first on the target list.

Yeah, but the 2nd ID Commander, MG Tucker, is still pretty concerned about them. I was privileged to sit through a two hour briefing he gave about two weeks ago.

[HorseSoldier]

Weaponized Smallpox?

Slate wiper if they can pop it in enough places to prevent firewalling it.

I'd guess that if small pox broke out among Chinese or Russian troops at the front, their parent governments would nuke them from along with reducing North Korea to glowing cinders.

Have it introduced in the midst of a Twilight nuclear exchange and the human race will simply die off until population density is too low to let it spread effectively. Then we'll just have endemic occasional outbreaks that take 10% here or 20% there in bad years.

I always wanted to run a T2K game where players were somewhere near-ish Central Asia (Iran, or maybe a Russian game set in the Rodina) where characters had to deal with some roving neo-nomads who got exposed to something nasty while looting a Soviet bioweapons lab and were now carrying Small Pox or genetically modified Plague or something equally foul.

[headquarters]

Originally Posted by Eddie

Six thousand men and 21,000 artillery pieces is pretty daunting though.

Firstly -a preface - this is in part a political discussion so please consider that I offer my views in order to hear what others think about them -I dont write with intent to provoke .

To the case :

I am with Eddie on this one - they might have all sorts of WMDs for these arty pieces .Also they have Seoul in range .

A "Nork" ( love the name ) invasion of the South seemes really far fetched with todays situation.War can take other forms though , and the Norks are unpredictable .

Victory isnt assured imho- it depends on what the objectives are .

Was Gulf 1 a full victory ? Of course it was - but objectives had to be shifted from "kick out Saddam" to "liberate Kuwait and destroy his army - only" to attain this . The kicking out couldnt be done until Gulf 2.

I agree that the US and ROk forces are more than capable of winning a war outright- so the question will turn to -at what cost ?

I believe, for one ,at the price of Seoul, and 500 000 civillian South Koreans for starters .

Then as a second phase ,the massive airborne retaliation will probably kill
100 000 NK service personel ( pulling numbers out of a hat here guys) and God knows what the collateral damage list will read like.

I cant really back it up with hard facts right now, but I have a chilling sensation down my spine that the NORKS arent going to be bowled over the same way the Iraqis were.
For one ,their nationalism goes further back and is more homogenous and hardcore than the composite Iraqi nation .They seem much more hard core-if poor and underequipped. Also I believe they have better organization and better training than the former Iraqi army .

A third phase would probably have to mean incursion onto NK soil . ( A lucky cruise missile hit might solve many problems to alleviate the need for this ,but I have read books from US service personel that have been to PyongYang before - the leadership has had bunkers that can stand up to some nuclear weapons for over 60 years .)
Such an operation/invasion opens up a whole can of new problems .

The western way of waging war has great strengths being the continuation of politics by other means ,as we are democracies and thus our causes are mostly just ,give or take a few -but its major weakness is this also . We cannot ( yes -lumping all of us together ) take the same casualties as the axis of evil guys .Our populace has no stomach for it .Support for the war will dwindle if death tolls rise and the match goes into overtime or if a rematch starts looming on the horizon .Further more - civillian casualties are also a similar concern ,also in the enemies population .

If my haphazard calculations have any merit than I see a death toll in total of around 1000 000 people ,mostly civillians that the Norks attack in Seoul and their own civvies that they will use as shields etc to try to null out US air superiority .A lot of dead NK service personell as well . I will not try to guesstimate at the number of ROK and US personell that will pay the ultimate price - I suspect the number to be staggering compared to the relatively low casualty number from the two Gulf wars -not counting the ongoing operations since 2003.

Thus - considering the risks and the potential costs, I dont think PyongYang could be "defeated" today - if you take their objective as a POV - to stay in power at any cost .Sort of like the Japanese strategy for the battle of Iwo Jima. Make it as costly as possible , and hope this will lead to the possibility for brokering a deal.Sure ,they would loose their huge army ,countless civillians would die and devestation would by all around .But if they could get the ROK and the US to back off, they could stay in control through harsh internal security measures and by more time for the Juche.

As I said in the preface -just one guys opinion.

[Fusilier]

Originally Posted by headquarters

Also I believe they have better organization and better training than the former Iraqi army.

Quite. Especially their (huge) special forces.

One only has to look at previous spec ops missions the Norks pulled in the south. They fought very hard, very well, and chose death rather than surrender in most cases. Granted it doesn't give any real indication to the rest of their forces, but I still wouldn't put them in the same category as the Iraqis - too many differences.

For one, they are poor yes, but they aren't motivated or fueled by money. Their ideology (juche and what not) is planted deep in all of them from birth. I recommend downloading one of the many investigative documentaries filmed in North Korea on that subject. It's surreal. The whole country is like one big insane asylum. Saying they are brainwashed is just barely scrapping the surface of what goes on there.

[Eddie]

Originally Posted by Fusilier

Quite. Especially their (huge) special forces.

Another concern of MG Tucker's. According to him (and he gets better intel updates than I do), it's apparently the largest group of special operations forces in the world.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Fusilier

Quite. Especially their (huge) special forces.

Yes, they have a lot of troops that they designate "special operations" troops. For the most part, though -- and I'm not letting any classified cat out of the bag here -- their "special operations troops" are simply well-trained infantry with additional training in infiltration and rear-area ops, similar to US light infantry forces. Most of their "special ops" troops are simply light fighters, in essence.

[Targan]

I think MacArthur was right. Should have nuked the bastards. I can't believe that such a kooky family has managed to maintain a cult of personality for so long, keeping the majority of the North Korean population in abject poverty along the way. Its a pity the US is stretched so thin militarilly. I'd like to see the US and its allies (including Australia) roll on into North Korea and implement regime change with extreme prejudice.

[Caradhras]

For info guys...

The word 'Norks' is UK slang for, well, "What a great pair of norks!". You get the picture

[mikeo80]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I agree that the RPC has every right to be nervous about the Norks (great name!). It just seems like they're not worried enough. If having another nuclear-armed neighbor right next door is something they really fear, why do the Chinese almost always run cold when it comes to taking a hard line against the Norks? They seem to be the last ones on the bus whenever the international community tries to turn the screws on the Norks. They've been more supportive of our efforts to take the Kims down a peg over the last couple of years but they could be doing a whole lot more. Why aren't they?

IMHO, the Chinese govt is looking for an excuse to take the US down a peg. Just imagine the following scenario.

The NK's invade SK. They probably could take Seoul (Less than 40 klicks from frontier.)

USA Air Force out of Japan and US Navy swarm NK Air Force, then turn the attention of the B-52's on the NK Army

As the NK casualty rate climbs China joins in. Not w/ military, with economics. Demand FULL PAYMENT of all US debt China owns. Payment due in GOLD, or diamonds or other form of permanent value. US Bankrupts in less than 20 days....

[Cdnwolf]

Interesting that in my timeline for Twilight 2013, I have North Korea launching nukes at the south and Guam, Japan. Also people forget that one corner of North Korea touches Russia too... so they have an interest in that part of the world too.

[Cpl. Kalkwarf]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

I think what they're afraid of is the Kims nuking them or some of their other WMD being used to stave them off. China had enough trouble with SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, what if the Norks hit Chinese troops with oh, I dunno? Weaponized Smallpox?

It would be the end of NK.