OT: China's new carrier

[headquarters]

The Chinese are expanding in to Africa and Asia. They will eventually need capacity for force projection acroos the oceans. But I agree with those here who point out that the USN is just to far ahead of all others to be in any serious peril for the forseeable future. I guess we could try to guesstimate when a serious contender for the naval supremacy might come along - and who that might be.

China could have a shot in the future if their economy soars and the US keeps dragging on. I have little doubt that the expertise to build such vessel would be available to thr Chinese should they put effort into that field.

But I dont see how any other navy or even any other alliance of navies could actually best the USN. Inflict terrible losses - maybe. But win the war at sea? I dont see it in a hundred years.

[simonmark6]

Mind you, my ancestors were saying that about this time in the last century...

[95th Rifleman]

Originally Posted by simonmark6

Mind you, my ancestors were saying that about this time in the last century...

That's a very good point.

Look at the Japanese, they went from nothing to a major, modern fleet in a relatively short time. The Russians got knocked for six by that little surprise.

[adimar]

Originally Posted by headquarters

But I dont see how any other navy or even any other alliance of navies could actually best the USN. Inflict terrible losses - maybe. But win the war at sea? I dont see it in a hundred years.

A relevant comparison might be Tirpitz' Risk theory. Tirpitz was a pre-WW1 German naval captain who suggested that in-order to match Great Britain's power Germany didn't have to invest in a bigger/more powerful navy. All German had to do was to create a navy big enough so that the cost of conflict between the navies would cripple the British navy. Such a parity results in a situation where even if Britain wins the war between the navies, the damage done to it's navy would severely degrade it's power projection capabilities to the point where it would risk the empire.
I think the similarities are obvious.

Adi

[RN7]

Originally Posted by adimar

A relevant comparison might be Tirpitz' Risk theory. Tirpitz was a pre-WW1 German naval captain who suggested that in-order to match Great Britain's power Germany didn't have to invest in a bigger/more powerful navy. All German had to do was to create a navy big enough so that the cost of conflict between the navies would cripple the British navy. Such a parity results in a situation where even if Britain wins the war between the navies, the damage done to it's navy would severely degrade it's power projection capabilities to the point where it would risk the empire.
I think the similarities are obvious.

Adi

A good analogy, certainly the naval expansion of China vs America bares some similarities with the position of Germany vs Britain a hundred years or more ago, and China as a land power like Germany competing with a naval power like America and Britain is worth noting.

However the major draw back would be the level of military technology in both cases. Germany never achieved naval parity with Britain before or during WW1, with its fleet being at best 60% the size of the Royal Navy as British naval ship building capacity was too great for them to match. After Jutland the German High seas fleet never bothered to take on the Royal Navy again. But German naval technology was certainly able to match Britain's, and its dreadnought fleet was arguably more advanced with better machinery, gun sights etc. China on the other hand is not any where near challenging American naval technology. Despite the propaganda and knee jerk reports of its growing naval power, China can't build an aircraft carrier on its own despite 30 years of trying, and its nuclear submarine programme is reliant on Russian assistance.

They are trying however, and I think Peking is happy to embark on a dissemination policy about its naval/military/strategic projects to worry its neighbours in Asia and keep America on its toes. I bet the Pentagon just loves all of this as it justifies its defence spending and funding for new projects.