Ukraine Fun & Games

[kalos72]

If this does happen/stay, which we all know it will, it will begin the down ward spiral for us world-wide. NATO / EU / US power will be severely reduced...

But what real options do we have? Send troops to the Baltic and try to force him out?

WWIII with Russia isn't a great scenario...sanctions and political crap are all we have.

Maybe someone will start working on a small fusion reactor now to reduce the dependency on oil.

[Webstral]

The only military solution with any teeth that I can see is an offer of NATO membership to the Ukraine. The Ukraine would have to accept, and a minimum of 250,000 NATO troops would have to go in as soon as logistical realities would allow. The end game would look much like West Germany with contingents from all of the NATO partners based in the country, plus a new set of POMCUS sites established. If the Russians intervene after Ukrainian membership in NATO has been made official, then there is a long term option regardless of how things go in the short term. At the very least, we'd get to find out if the engineering decisions made regarding the M1 played out favorably under less optimal circumstances than during Operation Desert Storm. We'd also get to find out who made the best choices regarding aircraft design.

[schnickelfritz]

How do you see this playing out now given the seizures over the last week?

It would seem the Ukrainians are doing everything they can...probably too much...to make sure they are not the aggressor here. Everyone knows who the aggressor is here...despite the old school Soviet PR campaign.

I am very much in favor of providing military assistance to the Ukrainians by way of something like getting more F-16's for Poland so they can then give their MiG-29's to the Ukrainian Air force, and providing parts and resources so they can get more of their on paper strength actually in the field.

I doubt Pooty wants to go into something and take appreciable losses in men, tanks, or aircraft. If the Ukraine can provide a credible threat to do that, I think he'll pull a Georgia and quietly back off.

The Crimea is gone, but I don't really want to see a good chunk of the rest of the country fly the hammer and sickle again...er...Russian colors.

Seeing the hammer and sickle waving at some of these protests is at best chilling.

I used to work with a proud Russian who was ironically born in Kiev (his Father was Russian in the Soviet Army) and he was proud to the point that it blinded him...wow. You'd think the Soviets beat Hitler with one hand tied to hear him tell it...repeatedly. It got to the point where I brought in figures of all the crap we gave them in WW2 and how many were lost getting it there. He thought it was all western propaganda...yeesh.

-Dave

[Webstral]

The Crimea is now Russian, for all intents and purposes. At this point, that situation can only be reversed by force of arms.

As for defending the rest of the Ukraine with NATO, it's really an effort for the logisticians. If the Ukraine were to accept NATO membership, and if NATO were to decide to commit fully to defending its new member from aggression, then the first bottleneck would be the rate at which troops could be deployed from NATO base areas to the Ukraine. Military aircraft could bring in the rapid deployment forces, but it would take heavy divisions to do the job properly. Air power alone won't cut it. It's either troops on the ground ready to fight or it's just another Western effort to substitute cash and technology for commitment.

I wonder who would be willing to provide ground forces for the Ukraine. Technically, every NATO member not on the front line ought to be sending forces forward. The Brits would pitch in, of course. The French probably would, too. Germany? Canada? Italy? Spain? Greece? The former Soviet satellites probably would be the most receptive to a request for troops.

[Sanjuro]

Is anyone else thinking "Sudetenland?"

[Panther Al]

Originally Posted by Sanjuro

Is anyone else thinking "Sudetenland?"

Not the only one.

Now, you can take historical comparisons only so far, but this is what I thought once all this got kicked off.

A: Country Elects a Charismatic Leader, whose biggest point is a cult of personality that emphasises national pride and demonises anyone not one of them.

B: A economic recovery is started, based of either manufacturing or resources.

C: They back a section of another country that they claim, accurately or not, was part of them, and they move in on a pretext to secure that claim. The world does nothing.

D: In order to prove that they are the good guys, they host a really nice Olympics, putting on quite the show of openness and all that goes with the effort to sell themselves.

E: Meanwhile, in the Far East, a nation who believes they are being slighted and not given their just dues as a 'Great Power' props up a nasty neighbouring government, and needing a vast increase in natural resources, and knowing they can't take it from the north, starts looking south at various islands and nations as 'rightfully' theirs, regardless of what the locals say of the idea.

F: Once the Olympics are done, and reacting to the 'Locally Formed Uprising' and the 'Spontaneous Demands' of an ethnic minority in a neighbouring country, the stage a pretext to bite off a large chunk of it, all in the name of peace and fulfilling the wishes of the local oppressed majority of the region, and make it part of the greater nation.

G: World goes ape: they all demand that the country in question fly right, and get it together. They have a big meetings, and they all agree 'Something Should Be Done' if it happens again. Meanwhile, the county of evil-doers start making noises saying the rest of said country is being mean to a ethnic brothers and sisters, and we might have to do something about this, but don't worry, all those troops we have on the border, they are just there for some sunshine. Oh? And Country C? Don't get ideas about treating our co-ethnic people bad, I know you are allied with some pretty strong countries, but you know they don't really have your back, after all, what have they done for their other friends?


Now again, can only comparisons so far, but as this one goes, pretty darn scary. For in this case, we have the following:

A: Germany elected everyones favourite Bavarian Corporal, and Russia Elected Putin.

B: German Manufacturing took off, and Russia started selling gas and oil hand over fist.

C: Ruhr/Rhine from France, and Georgia lost a few provinces. Granted, at least Germany was in the right here.

D: Berlin 36, Sochi 14

E: Japan/Manchuria late 30's, China/North Korea Now.

F: Sudetenland, and now the Crimea.

G: Right now he is making serious noise about the rest of the Ukraine, at least the eastern parts, and western leadership - with two loud exceptions - are looking for a piece of paper to wave. The two exceptions? Poland and Germany: they both know how this movie worked out the last time, and don't care to watch the sequel. Also, Putin has been making noises about the Baltics, and here, they have allies: in fact, they are NATO members. So, to carry the comparison, they are taking the role of Poland in 39.

So yes, this is a bit of history we have seen before, clearer than most, that we need to pay attention too. Germany is: they have pretty much locked in the European Leadership by financing away the economic crisis and they see where this can lead all to easily. Poland as well is looking to the east with great alarm: They never was fond of either the Germans or the Russians, but right now they can trust the defanged German people, and are quietly looking at beefing up - significantly - their armed forces according to friends of mine that work in a odd shaped five sided building down the road.

But thats my two cents.

[Targan]

Germany's actions post-1933 have some very interesting parallels with Russia's actions in this new millenia. Check out this excellent article by the Australian Broadcasting Commission: Hillary Clinton's comparison of Vladimir Putin and Adolf Hitler checks out

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Panther Al

So yes, this is a bit of history we have seen before, clearer than most, that we need to pay attention too. Germany is: they have pretty much locked in the European Leadership by financing away the economic crisis and they see where this can lead all to easily. Poland as well is looking to the east with great alarm: They never was fond of either the Germans or the Russians, but right now they can trust the defanged German people, and are quietly looking at beefing up - significantly - their armed forces according to friends of mine that work in a odd shaped five sided building down the road.

But thats my two cents.

I like what they said in the movie "To Be or Not to Be" (odd how I keep quoting that movie):

"Poland...the doormat of Europe! If it's not the Russians, it's the Germans!"