OT or Not OT: Twilight 2030

[mikeo80]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

Hey, anything that makes my stuff more worthwhile...

I agree with what you say, Paul. I just do not want to test drive that theory.

My $0.02

Mike

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Crazed assassins don't worry me overly much, they usually foul up something and get caught before they can fulfil their design e.g. John Hinckley, Jr. trying to kill then president Ronald Reagan.
It's the well motivated, strongly committed, social activist type assassins who are prepared to die for their cause and are smart enough to seize opportunities to fulfil their aims that bother me e.g. Gavrilo Princip when he saw Archduke Ferdinand sitting in a stalled car.

[Rainbow Six]

Interesting post…not sure how achievable it is to include all of the factors mentioned. Some of them are way beyond my area of expertise, but a few random thoughts on some of them (BTW, I really think Twilight 2025 has a ring to it)

An economic / political break down of the EU…economics is for the most part outside my area of expertise…I rely on what I read in certain newspapers and see on certain TV news channels and the ones that I’m reading / watching are saying that the economy is on the mend in Europe…how permanent that recovery is who knows, but as I said, economics is outwith my area of expertise so I wouldn’t be comfortable on that subject without doing a considerable amount of research which I can’t do at the minute (this post is a quick one during lunch hour at work)

A political break up of sorts is probably possible , although would likely be limited in scope (disclaimer – this post isn’t intended to get into any of the real life politics of the EU). I can only really speak for the situation in the United Kingdom here, where – according to the opinion polls - there is a sizeable percentage of the population who, when asked, state that they favour leaving the EU and Prime Minister David Cameron is on record as stating that if the Conservatives win the next General Election in 2015 he wants to hold a Referendum on continued UK membership in 2017. If the Referendum took place and if the public voted to leave I don’t see how the Government could do anything except leave the EU, but those are both big If’s, particularly the second one.

So, a partial break up of the EU, at least to the extent that the UK leaves, is not impossible at all. Even if that was to occur though, my own view is that the remaining 27 Member States would remain intact, leaving the UK potentially marginalised on the fringes of Europe, in which case it might look westward towards the United States, whilst the EU becomes more Euro Centric at the start of the 2020’s, which may or may not cause some friction with the US (bear with me, this is all going somewhere). We have members from other EU members who may be able to offer more insight into the likelihood of their countries splitting away from the EU.

The Middle East…yep, for sure an ongoing area of tension. Let’s posit a few things…firstly, that Assad eventually emerges victorious in Syria and the Damascus Government becomes even more closely aligned with the Iranians. At some point in the next twelve – eighteen months the Israelis decide to launch an air strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Strikes are partially successful, causing significant but not fatal damage to the Iranians’ nuclear ambitions – let’s say enough to set them back five to ten years (Twilight 2025 again)…Tensions are escalated but a full scale War is averted. Israel is roundly condemned in the court of World opinion as the aggressor and the Iranians – and their Syrian vassals – plot their revenge – which will later lead us into spectacular acts of terrorism. I don’t feel overly comfortable “suggesting” possible terrorist attacks, but there are several that spring to mind that could cause loss of life in the hundreds. There are several others that could cause loss of life in the thousands or even tens of thousands if you want to go that far…

Whilst the Iranians are plotting we see China flexing its military muscle in Asia and the Pacific, which leads to several countries in the region increasing their military spending, most noticeably Japan. Other Asian nations, observing what appears to be an arms race between the PRC and Japan become increasingly nervous. In Europe, the Russians, meanwhile, have been relatively quiet since their unopposed annexations of eastern Ukraine in 2014 and Belarus in 2016. For its part NATO has roughly a Division’s worth of troops. Mostly British and American (the Germans offered but the Poles declined) stationed in Poland as “guarantor” or the Alliance’s commitment to its Eastern members. The US also quietly deploys enough equipment to new POMCUS sites in western Poland to equip a full heavy Division.

So, what happens next? Off the top of my head (and as I said I haven’t done any serious research on this, just throwing ideas about to discuss) are there two major potential flashpoints?

Europe…or Asia…Who kicks off World War 3? The classic T2K timelines always started in Asia, so why not stick with that – there’s a flashpoint in Asia (I don’t know what – Taiwan seems the most obvious) which brings the US and China into direct confrontation. The US rapidly reinforces the Pacific, which inevitably leads to a reduction in forces committed to NATO (other NATO members offer the US vocal support but there is little tangible assistance – the Royal Navy sends a couple of warships and that’s about it). The Russians see their opportunity to annex the Baltic States by force whilst the US is committed elsewhere (effectively it’s a reboot of sorts of V1 – in V1 the West Germans took advantage of the fact that the Soviets were engaged against the Chinese to attempt reunification with East Germany – in this timeline it’s the Russians taking advantage of the fact that the Americans are engaged against the Chinese to force “reunification” with the Baltic States).

The Russians don’t go against Poland initially because they are certain that will prompt a NATO response but they think they will be able to retake the Baltics without encountering serious opposition using the by now familiar refrain that they are acting to protect Russian minority groups. This leads to much debate in NATO HQ and elsewhere as to how to respond – the Eastern European states, led by Poland, all fear that they will be next and advocate direct action. The Western European states are less eager to face up to the Russians, particularly as the US can only supply limited support as it’s already involved in hostilities against the Chinese. Meanwhile the Baltic states are being steamrollered. Potentially the schisms within NATO eventually cause the alliance to fracture, with a number of western European states (led by France) withdrawing from the alliance (again, mirroring the classic T2K timeline). Critically the Germans, who have the largest Army in Western Europe, opt to honour their treaty commitments and the Panzer Divisions move east.

With the US now fully committed in Europe and Asia, the Chinese have a quiet word with their ally the Supreme Leader of North Korea, who decides that now might be a good time to reunite the Korean peninsula. Elsewhere different parts of Africa descend into ethnic / religious violence, whilst tensions are threatening to boil over in the Middle East and between India and Pakistan in the disputed Kashmir region…

Thoughts?

[Raellus]

I like what you've come up with so far, Rainbow. I'll comment at length when I get home. Until then, these two articles from today's Yahoo News homepage address the evolving China and Russia-Ukraine situations.

http://news.yahoo.com/china-splurgin...92026097.html#

http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-launch...161958758.html

[Raellus]

I haven't had a chance to respond at length but I'm in the midst of my 30 -minute lunch break so I thought pop in for a bit.

I arbitrarily chose 2030 because it's 16 years from now and, IIRC, the original Twilight 2000 came out in 1984.

More worrisome developments in eastern Europe.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-troops-land...135554490.html

And the leader of Georgia has warned the West not to make Russia angry because, basically, bad things happen when you do. He should know, I suppose.

[Rainbow Six]

Thanks Raellus, would be interested in your thoughts - there's obviously still a long way to go to get from where my post ended to a T2K setting. Also, one of the areas that I would say my knowledge is quite limited is the Pacific, particularly any potential conflict between the US (and allies) and China. I'm also not up to speed on current orders of battle.

However, to expand a little further...let's call the start of the Asian and European Wars Year 1...so to recap / summarise/ expand slightly....

Year 1

Asia

The US, with perhaps limited support from the UK*, is involved in a hot War with the Chinese in the Pacific

• Causes? A Chinese attack on Taiwan? Or an flashpoint in the Spratly Islands?
• Who else would be allied with the US? Anyone? The Australians? Someone unexpected like the Vietnamese (my enemy's enemy is my friend etc)
• Who's on the Chinese side? The North Koreans are a given. The Russians (covertly perhaps)?

North Korea has invaded South Korea. This is essentially a fight between the two Koreas and their respective - and, when reserves are fully mobilised huge, - Armies. US Forces in Korea are fighting alongside their Korean counterparts but commitments elsewhere mean there are relatively few reinforcements coming to Korea from the (or elsewhere for that matter). The fighting in Korea becomes very, very bloody, very, very quickly. No quarter is asked or given by either side and the situation becomes bogged down in a very nasty stalemate somewhere just north of Seoul. Would the Chinese send troops to help the North?

• Potential for first use of nukes being in this theatre is probably relatively high - e.g. if the South breaks the stalemate and drives north. NK leadership use nukes against military and civilian targets in the South, killing large numbers of US troops. The US responds in kind. If the Chinese have sent troops into Korea they suffer large numbers of casualties. The nuclear genie is out of the bottle and tit for tat escalation begins (this doesn't necessarily happen in Year 1).

* UK support would be limited inasmuch as by this stage the UK would most likely lack the capability to project significant power in multiple theatres

Europe

Following a Russian attack on the Baltic States, some (not all) NATO members are involved in a hot war with Russia (let's say the UK, the USA, Germany, and the former Warsaw Pact states - Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania). Ukraine, although not a NATO member, volunteers to commit troops as well. The US sends reinforcements from the Continental US by both air and sea (the former marrying up with the POMCUS gear) in what becomes known as REFORPOL (although the number of reinforcements is affected by what is happening in the Pacific). Canada also commits a Brigade Group.

I don't know about Bulgaria - from what I've read I was under the impression that the Bulgarians were on relatively good terms with the Russians and in the original T2K scenario some countries changed sides, so I'm positing that the Bulgarians are sitting on their hands for now. Conveniently located next to Bulgaria is Serbia, which I would say is also a potential Russian ally. Eastern Ukraine and Belarus have been annexed so count as Russian territory.

France has opted out of NATO, as have most of the southern European members (Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy). Turkey, the Netherlands, Norway, and Denmark remain in NATO. The Norwegians are concerned about their own border with Russia, so are unwilling to commit troops to the Baltics. The Danes send troops to Norway to reinforce their Nordic neighbour. Belgium is split down the middle - the French speaking Walloons favour opting out, the Dutch speaking Flemish favour staying in.

So, we have the potential for two fronts in Europe - fighting starts in the North and is focused on the Polish border with Lithuania, and Russia (Belarus and the Russian Federation exclave of Kaliningrad). The Norwegians are right to be wary - the Russians attack northern Norway only days after the first NATO units enter combat in the Baltic States. The Swedes and the Finns keep a wary eye on developments but remain neutral. By the start of Winter NATO forces have liberated southern Lithuania, including the capital Vilnius, and have made limited inroads into Belarus. Fierce fighting continues in and and around the Kaliningrad oblast. After making initial inroads into Norwegian territory, the combined Norwegian / Danish forces, reinforced by British and American Marines and mountain troops have held their ground some 50 km east of Tromso.

The Southern front remains quiet until early summer when Russian forces launch a surprise attack out of East Ukraine aimed at driving through the Ukraine. Simultaneously Bulgaria and Serbia declare War on NATO and attempt to link up with the advancing Russians. With much of the Czech and Polish Armies occupied in the Baltics, it falls to the Romanians, the Croatians, and the now overstretched Germans to oppose the Russian / Bulgarian / Serbian forces. Sadly the Balkan States once again descends into the same anarchy they experienced in the 1990's. Turkey, still a part of NATO, conducts limited offensives against the Bulgarians, but the bulk of the Turkish Army remains far away from the front line, securing the country's long and porous borders with Syria, Iraq, and Iran, as well as dealing with the internal threat posed by Kurdish Separatists. Then, taking the whole World by surprise, the Greek Government joins the Russian / Bulgarian / Serbian alliance and immediately launches an offensive against the Turks. By the end of the Year Bulgarian and Russian armoured columns are driving towards Istanbul (does that line sound familiar?).

But as we approach Year 2 the nuclear genie has not, however, come out of the bottle in Europe. Yet

I would repeat that I haven't done a huge amount of research on this yet...much of the above is random thoughts which may not pass a plausibility test...in particular the Bulgarians and the Greeks changing sides, however the intent is to try and recreate the feel of the original T2K World but brought up to date, so in that respect the intent is to try and mirror the situation of the original timeline where Italy, Greece, Yugoslavia, and Romania all changed sides. There's also the split in NATO that will eventually see the formation of the Franco Belgian Union (albeit Belgium will suffer its own schisms between its Walloon and Flemish populations). I also know I haven't mentioned every NATO member....Comments about where the front lines are at any given time are also highly speculative....I didn't really set out to write an alternate history timeline as much as bounce some thoughts around, so please, if anyone else wants to join in or has any thoughts or comments, feel free!

I'm not overlooking other parts of the World, but I'm out of time for tonight...

Cheers

[Raellus]

I don't think a division in formerly "united" Europe is that much of a stretch. There's already underlying tension there between the relatively affluent nations of northwestern Europe and the cash-strapped debtor nations of southern Europe. If countries like Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal were kicked out of the EU, or, more likely, countries like Germany, England, and the Netherlands opted out, there'd be rifts there that could be made to grow if the right stressors were put into play. At the moment, though, I'm not sure what those stressors might be. Perhaps a resurgent Russia makes a play to bring the poorer nations of Europe into its own sphere of influence. That could be made to work, I think.

What are some other factors that could lead to the disunion and polarization of Europe?