OT or Not OT: Twilight 2030

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Raellus

That's exactly what I was getting at. Now, what could prompt a global international crisis? I'm thinking a war involving China. That would do the trick, most likely.

Off the top of my head I don't know. Taiwan would obviously be a major flashpoint. Only other one I'm familiar with are the Spratly Islands. A naval conflict between China and Vietnam there could theoretically escalate into a full scale War. The Spratlys are also claimed by, amongst others, the Philippines, so there is potential for further escalation, if for example, a Phillipine Navy ship gets "accidentally" sunk by the Chinese.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands

I think the US has to get involved in a shooting war in Asia before the Russians make their move in Europe though. The Russians have to think that the Americans are too involved in Asia to also get involved in Europe.

So how about the following over a two / three year period

• Relations between the US and China become strained; there's no War (yet) but the strain on relations causes the US and European economies to go into recession (again)
• The recession causes a new crisis within the Eurozone and several countries require a bailout. Other EU States (led by Germany) refuse to finance a fresh bailout package, leading to a crisis that ultimately leads to several of the member States that were seeking a bailout leaving the EU
• The Russians reach out to those former EU members offering an attractive package of assistance
• A fresh wave of fighting in the Pacific escalates (over Taiwan maybe?), drawing the United States into the conflict. The US is forced to commit forces allocated to NATO roles to the Pacific Theatre
• At the behest of the Chinese, North Korea invades South Korea, leading to further pressure on US commitments
• The Kremlin leadership calculate that with the US committed elsewhere, NATO will not offer any military opposition to a Russian occupation of the Baltic States
• Russian forces invade Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
• NATO splits; some countries withdraw from the alliance but others honour their treaty obligations and declare War on Russia

[Raellus]

I think that works really well. I thinking the shelling of a Filipino warship is enough to precipitate a period of economic strain between China and the U.S. A fragmented NATO and an overstretched U.S. military make the Russians much more of a match, militarily speaking, especially if the recent trend in comparative defense spending between Russia and the West continues in the interval between now and 2030 or whatever.

[Targan]

A US-China war would put Australia in a really tough position. I'd say Australia would almost certainly back the US, but that would crash Australia's economy because it would lose it's biggest trading partner. Interesting scenarios there Raellus and Rainbow Six.

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Targan

A US-China war would put Australia in a really tough position. I'd say Australia would almost certainly back the US, but that would crash Australia's economy because it would lose it's biggest trading partner. Interesting scenarios there Raellus and Rainbow Six.

Plus one other neighbor that Australia's concerned with: Indonesia. Let's say a more hardline military coup or fundamentalist Islamist sect is now in control of the country, and have been spending cash to build up their military, in particular their amphibious capabilities. With the chaos of a full-blown U.S. vs. China conflict, would the Indonesians take advantage of the chaos and make a try for some real estate on Australia, perhaps with some quiet backing from the Chinese?

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Schone23666

With the chaos of a full-blown U.S. vs. China conflict, would the Indonesians take advantage of the chaos and make a try for some real estate on Australia, perhaps with some quiet backing from the Chinese?

I doubt they would start with an invasion of Australia, but I could definitely see Indonesia having a crack at Papua New Guinea, and that would be a fast track to a shooting war with Australia.

[Raellus]

I'd love to get Australia involved early. There are at least two ways to do so and you've already mentioned one of them. I'll get back to this in a minute, but first I'd like to see which of the following scenarios regarding the order the U.S. ends up making war on China and North Korea.

Do you think the Chinese might goad the North Koreans into invading South Korea to draw U.S. attention away from Taiwan before striking to reclaim their island? Or do you think it makes more sense for North Korea to opportunistically invade the South once the U.S. is drawn into an attempted defense of Taiwan? Either way, once the U.S. is overstretched and committed in Asia (maybe doubly so), Russia makes its play for the Baltics. We can discuss that later.

Now, if we go with the NK invasion prior to China making its big move, Australia would send troops to SK, no? That might be a lower stakes way to get them into the war, rather than entering into a more daunting struggle vs. China first. Either way, once Australia is committed, it's committed when other regional powers enter the fray.

I do like the idea of getting Indonesia involved and essentially allying with the Chinese. What other allies do you see China having in 2030? Myanmar, maybe? I'm assuming that the little fish in the region would be peeing their pants as the Chinese military continues its meteoric rise and would therefore look to more closely ally themselves to the West, but maybe they would pursue a policy of rapprochement with China and eventually become satellites.

Now one thing that's always troubled me about the thought of a war against China: How does the U.S. get ground forces into action on the mainland? In 30 years, following current trends, China will have a larger navy than the U.S., and any war in east Asia gives them the interior lines of supply. To me, the U.S. would be fighting at a huge disadvantage. It's going to need the RAN for sure, and other regional allies as well. Japan is one potential springboard. It's got a capable navy, and one that could also grow, albeit not as quickly, by 2030.

But, if the tension in Asia originally heated up over a boarder dispute with Vietnam, maybe that's the doorway into the Chinese mainland. Wouldn't it be interesting to have U.S. and SRV troops- former enemies- teaming up to take on their mutual foe, the Chinese?

I've asked a lot of questions so I'll stop and give y'all a chance to address them before asking any more.

[Raellus]

The Spratlys are looking like the most likely flashpoint for what will eventually become WWIII in Asia.

It's from Wikipedia, but...

"In 1999, a Philippine navy ship (Number 57 - BRP Sierra Madre) was purposely run aground near Second Thomas Shoal to enable establishment of an outpost. As of 2014 it had not been removed, and Filipino troops have been stationed aboard since the grounding.[47][48]

On May 23, 2011, the President of the Philippines, Benigno Aquino III, warned visiting Chinese Defence Minister Liang Guanglie of a possible arms race in the region if tensions worsened over disputes in the South China Sea. Aquino said he told Liang in their meeting that this could happen if there were more encounters in the disputed and potentially oil-rich Spratly Islands.[49]

In May 2011, Chinese patrol boats attacked two Vietnamese oil exploration ships near the Spratly Islands.[50] Also in May 2011, Chinese naval vessels opened fire on Vietnamese fishing vessels operating off East London Reef (Da Dong). The three Chinese military vessels were numbered 989, 27 and 28, and they showed up with a small group of Chinese fishing vessels. Another Vietnamese fishing vessel was fired on near Fiery Cross Reef (Chu Thap). The Chief Commander of Border Guards in Phu Yen Province, Vietnam reported that a total of four Vietnamese vessels were fired upon by Chinese naval vessels.[verification needed] These incidents involving Chinese forces sparked mass protests in Vietnam, especially in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City,[51] and in various Vietnamese communities in the West (namely in the U.S. state of California and in Paris) over attacks on Vietnamese citizens and the intrusion into what Vietnam claimed was part of its territory.[52]

In June 2011, the Philippines began officially referring to the South China Sea as the "West Philippine Sea" and the Reed Bank as "Recto Bank".[53][54]

In July 2012, the National Assembly of Vietnam passed a law demarcating Vietnamese sea borders to include the Spratly and Paracel Islands."

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It looks like Chinese naval muscle flexing in this rich oil and gas (and fishing) region is nothing new. A power grab there would likely lead to a period of major strain with the West that could send the American economy into another great recession and sabotage the EU.

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Targan

I doubt they would start with an invasion of Australia, but I could definitely see Indonesia having a crack at Papua New Guinea, and that would be a fast track to a shooting war with Australia.

From what I've read Papua New Guinea has a relatively small military force, but they do receive a lot of training and support from Australia, New Zealand, and the United States, among others. Does Australia and New Zealand have a Status of Forces Agreement with the PNG?

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

• Chinese allies - not sure how feasible this one is, but how about Pakistan? Eventually we need to bring a Pakistan - India conflict into this scenario anyway. That's probably easily enough done without either of them being linked to belligerents in the Asian War, but would give an added twist. Myanmar would also work I think.

I could see that happening if China gives them enough incentive, say perhaps some extra military hardware and advisors for starters. India not only has a well documented rivalry with Pakistan, but also China as well, though not quite as bloody YET (having a rather mountainous area between the two helps). If India were to be drawn into the war against China, the Chinese might call upon their old Pakistani buddies to start some nasty shit in Kashmir again, only it goes really downhill this time and turns full-tilt nuclear between the two.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Schone23666

From what I've read Papua New Guinea has a relatively small military force, but they do receive a lot of training and support from Australia, New Zealand, and the United States, among others. Does Australia and New Zealand have a Status of Forces Agreement with the PNG?

I'm not sure of the exact nature of Australia's defence agreements with PNG but we train their military extensively in Australia and PNG. But most importantly, PNG was Australian territory until their amicable independence in 1975. So in a similar way to how you would expect the US to always defend the Philippines, Australia would basically treat an attack on PNG as an attack on itself.