Lead up to the Mexican Invasion

[Turboswede]

I am working on my Mexican Army Sourcebook and I have developed the following historic background to support the 1998 invasion by Mexico. I stick with a modified V2.2 timeline that does not assume a Marxist regime takes power in Mexico so there needs to be some other reason for the invasion.

Anyone see a glaring problem with this scenario? I especially like my background because it is compatible with Division Cuba’s support of Mexico after the Russians nuked them in 97/98.

2nd Mexican American War
In 1996 U.S. forces were deployed to Europe to assist German units in Poland. From 1995-1997 the U.S. deployed 80% of its domestic guard and reserve units to Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The result was a sapping of manpower from border units and an increased reliance on local civilian militias to patrol the U.S.-Mexican border. The reliance on poorly trained and poorly disciplined local militias led to a number of tragic border incidents.

The Salinas government strongly opposed the use of Militia volunteers as border guards and lodged an official protest with the U.S. government. The friction between the U.S. and Mexico over the border patrol issue came to a head on December 12th, 1996 when Mexican police found a burned bus filled with the charred remains of over 30 Mexican migrant workers in the Sonora Desert. During the investigation of the incident it became apparent that the Mexican deaths were due to actions undertaken by a Militia group operating out of Cowlic, Arizona. Mexican authorities demanded that the member of the militia be either prosecuted in the U.S. or extradited to Mexico for trial.

The U.S. government expressed regret over the incident but claimed that there was insufficient evidence to generate an indictment against any individual involved in the militia border patrol. As a result the U.S. could not justify the extradition of any member of the militia group. At the same time the U.S. suggested that Mexico make a stronger effort to curtail illegal border crossings so that similar incidents would be avoided.

In Mexico City the U.S. refusal to extradite militia members led to massive demonstrations and public calls for an oil embargo against the U.S. to hinder its ability to continue combat operations in Europe. The U.S. responded with the “Sloan Act” prohibiting by law all remittances to Mexico and recalling of over $80 Billion in debts underwritten by the United States.

In January, 1997 Mexico moved the majority of its mobile force Brigades to the Military Regions bordering the U.S. in an attempt to limit illegal border crossings by Mexican nationals. Mexico also refused to comply with the U.S. demand for debt repayment citing the debt contract terms as prohibiting any unreasonable modification of the contract. The U.S. responds by flooding the international markets with Mexican securities causing a run on the Peso. Due to the sale of Mexican treasuries and a ban on Mexican imports to the U.S., by March inflation in Mexico tops 1000% per month.

With the relocation of Mexican military units to the U.S. border, illegal immigration to the U.S. slows to a trickle. A de facto demilitarized zone 20 miles wide forms on the U.S.-Mexican border in an attempt to prevent contact between U.S. Militia and elements of the Mexican Army. The need for a DMZ becomes apparent as contact between the two groups invariably leads to more and more skirmishes.

In November of 1997 oil producing facilities in the U.S. are subject to nuclear attack by Russia in order to disable the U.S. ability to support foreign military operations. The U.S. responds in kind striking Russian strategic targets and the oil producing facilities in Venezuela supplying oil to Cuba. The U.S. demands that Mexico resume oil sales to the U.S. and Canada in support of the War in Europe. The tone of the U.S. demands for Mexican oil production become harsher as the second wave of nuclear strikes occur in December of 1997.

By the beginning of 1998 there is a general feeling that the Ban of Mexican oil sales to the U.S. placed Mexico in the Russian camp and that Mexico’s de facto alliance with the Russian Federation would justify U.S. military operations in Mexico. In January the U.S. government delivers Mexico with an ultimatum that they supply the U.S. with oil, or face a declaration of war.

In response to a possible seizure of Mexican oilfields by the U.S. military, on January 28th, Russia launches a nuclear attack on Pemex facilities throughout Mexico. The January attack destroys 93% of Mexico’s oil refining capability and leads to nationwide rioting.

While the Russians are directly responsible for the attack, the Mexican government blames the U.S. for leading to the Russian nuclear attack. Student protestors storm the U.S. embassy in Mexico city and take 28 diplomats hostage. Mexican special forces units manage to retake the embassy but the US ambassador and 6 other diplomats are killed in the process. As a result of the attack the U.S. breaks off diplomatic relations with Mexico on February 5th, closes the border to all traffic and recalls all regional consuls from Mexico.

In March U.S. Militia units move into the demilitarized zone between the U.S. and Mexico and step up attacks on Mexican border police. The Militia incursions come to a head on late April when a Militia group crosses the border and terrorizes the Mexican town of Ojos Calientes. Elements of the 3rd Mexican Mechanized Brigade enter the demilitarized border zone to recapture Ojos Calientes and find that the Militia has fled back across the border. The Brigade’s Los GuardiÃÂ*n Regiment pursues the Militia unit across the U.S. border against orders and wipes them out in Cloverdale, New Mexico.

In response to the border incursion, the U.S. condemns Mexico and begins organizing and arming local militia groups along military lines. In May of 1998 the New Mexico, Arizona and Texas Militias are brought into federal service and supplemented with various regular army units. Militia units receive heavy equipment from local National Guard armories. While most modern weapons had been transported to Europe, remaining stockpiles of Vietnam era hardware was available for distribution.

In response to the U.S. military buildup along the border, Mexico declares war on the United States at 12:01am on June 1st, 1998. At 1:00am Mexican armored units cross the U.S. border west of El Paso, TX and east of Douglas, AZ while elements of the 1st Mechanized Brigade and Tijuana Infantry Regiment move to capture San Diego.

[Adm.Lee]

In general, it sounds reasonable enough.

5th paragraph, I would say that the Mexican Army troops move up to the border as a show of force, or to deter militia crossings; not to stop illegal Mexicans crossing. That would seem more important to me.

[Benjamin]

Not too bad, but I think you're portrayal of the border militias is a bit harsh. Most members are more concerned about their private property rights, which are a bit different than those in Sweden. Many have had large numbers of illegals cross their property and in the process vandalize and or steal much of their property. Many are not against immigration as some of the larger ranches hire illegal immigrants as ranch hands. Also many of them are against the border walls as the government wants to take large amounts of their land to build said wall.

Some of the militia organizations have set up aid stations along migration routes or left water and food out on their land for the passing illegals. And many of the militia groups are pushing for immigration reform that sets up work visas allowing workers to cross the border safely without having to cross private property.

Of course in an alternate reality where a nationalistic Mexico is spewing pan-Hispanic rhetoric there is the possibility of these militias radicalizing in response. And I do like the reverse Pancho Villa raid into Mexico. But who will be the Mexican Ambrose Bierce?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ambrose_Bierce

Benjamin

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

Not too bad, but I think you're portrayal of the border militias is a bit harsh. Most members are more concerned about their private property rights, which are a bit different than those in Sweden.

Hah. I don't think Turboswede is actually from Sweden. That's really funny though, thanks for the chuckle.

[Turboswede]

Originally Posted by Targan

Hah. I don't think Turboswede is actually from Sweden. That's really funny though, thanks for the chuckle.

Well, I am originally from Sweden but I moved here in the mid 70’s so I am thoroughly Americanized .

I have a thing for 80’s SAABs (hence Turboswede).

I may be a bit harsh on the Militias, but its kind of a case of one bad apple spoiling the bunch (so to speak).

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Turboswede

Well, I am originally from Sweden but I moved here in the mid 70’s so I am thoroughly Americanized .

Heh heh. I stand corrected. I assumed you were American based on the content of your past posts. I actually thought that maybe your handle came from the character The Swede from Heartbreak Ridge.

[headquarters]

Do you speak any squarehead ?

[Turboswede]

Originally Posted by headquarters

Do you speak any squarehead ?

Javisst can jag prata Svenska

But my English is much better, I remember playing T2K in the early 80’s with my best friend who was a German Expat and thinking how useless my knowledge of Swedish would be in a T2K world. Now that I think of it as an adult, speaking Swedish fluently in T2K would be a big help, it would probably be a ticket out of central Europe and a pass for me and my buddies to immigrate to a (relatively) safe country.

[Hybris]

Originally Posted by Turboswede

Javisst can jag prata Svenska

But my English is much better, I remember playing T2K in the early 80’s with my best friend who was a German Expat and thinking how useless my knowledge of Swedish would be in a T2K world. Now that I think of it as an adult, speaking Swedish fluently in T2K would be a big help, it would probably be a ticket out of central Europe and a pass for me and my buddies to immigrate to a (relatively) safe country.

Can stavas kan.

[Webstral]

I have some rather belated feedback on Turboswede’s very thoughtful work. I like almost all of it. The underlying tensions between the US and Mexico feel real. I especially like the vindictive act of putting Mexican currency securities on the market as a means of punishing Mexico City.

Some of the border incidents feel a bit less real to me. I have a hard time seeing the Mexican government making more than a token effort to control the flow of emigrants out of Mexico and into the United States. In the eyes of the ruling elites of Mexico, emigrants are far more valuable in the United States than they are in Mexico. The kind of people who have the combination of gumption and desperation to make a major change in their lives are the kinds of people who could cause real problems at home. Although we have forgotten about the Mexican Civil War (1910-1920), Mexico remembers. The ruling elites don’t want a repeat, but neither are they prepared to surrender their hold on power to prevent the civil war that is forty years overdue. The United States provides a first-rate pressure valve. Better yet, the Mexican economy is bolstered by remittances from the US. Mexico exports its troublesome people and gets hard cash in return. It’s easy to see why Mexican officials act like the world is coming to an end when the US does anything that might make Mexican immigration less desirable, much less impossible. Keep the motivated malcontents at home, and the sky may very well fall on Mexico’s wealthy and powerful.

Given this, I can’t see that Mexico is going to make any serious effort to control emigration in 1997. They’ll make plenty of noise. That has to be done. But I can’t see them actually keeping desperate Mexicans at home where they could cause even more trouble. Thirty dead Mexicans in the Arizona desert serves to focus popular Mexican sentiment against the Americans. That’s no reason to keep 100,000 Mexicans from crossing the border and becoming the Americans’ problem.

I find the idea of American militia groups crossing into Mexico to fight a bit iffy. I suppose it’s possible. I’m not sure I buy it, though. Still, under the philosophy that hatred of the outsiders serves to unify the group, it’s possible that a charismatic leader of a militia group might be able to convince his people to conduct violence on the Mexican side of the border. Certainly, that would result in the dispatch of Mexican Army units to the area. I can’t see the relevant state governments or the federal government sitting on their hands for that one, though. Private citizens can’t be allowed to create international incidents like that—at least not without the consent of the right people in the right places.

I do like the idea of equipping various official armed bodies in the border states with Vietnam-era weapons. If one sees the militias as state guard units, the whole idea becomes quite plausible—even without perceiving a budding war with Mexico.


Webstral

[Webstral]

Upon further consideration, I think it would make for an interesting storyline for a single militia group to fall under the spell of a charismatic leader who leads small groups on cross-border raids. Obviously, Mexico will take steps to deal with it. Obviously, government agencies in the US will take steps to deal with it. Nevertheless, with some imagination and instincts for narration, I think one could talk about an out-of-control militia group causing major ripples. Of course, steps must be taken to avoid abusing suspension of disbelief. Nevertheless, although I don’t believe border patrolling militia groups as a whole will cause international incidents, a given group of susceptible folks might fall under the sway of just the right sort to make an interesting story and help set the stage for deteriorating US-Mexico relations.

Webstral