OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Bestbrian

I think a lot of Putin's nuclear comments were misinterpreted by the West as being directed towards them, when they were actually directed towards China. Remember, he has a giant, exposed, resource rich ass hanging out there right in China's face. There's no way he could keep China out, and there wouldn't be anyone on the planet willing to help him do it.

That's an interesting take. Your point about Russia's vulnerable east is well taken, but why would Putin want to risk antagonizing one of his very few allies, and by far the most powerful?

This latest threat was prompted by the UK's announcement that it would provide Ukraine with DI ammunition for donated Challenger II MBTs.

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/25/11660...eapons-belarus

There seems to be a clear-cut cause and effect relationship between Putin's nuclear threats over the past year or so and actions taken by NATO nations to provide military assistance to Ukraine.

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[Heffe]

Originally Posted by Raellus

That's an interesting take. Your point about Russia's vulnerable east is well taken, but why would Putin want to risk antagonizing one of his very few allies, and by far the most powerful?

This latest threat was prompted by the UK's announcement that it would provide Ukraine with DI ammunition for donated Challenger II MBTs.

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/25/11660...eapons-belarus

There seems to be a clear-cut cause and effect relationship between Putin's nuclear threats over the past year or so and actions taken by NATO nations to provide military assistance to Ukraine.

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I'm not so sure about that. It appears as though Russia may have been pushing to move nukes into Belarus for quite some time, as a measure of strengthening control over the puppet-state.

https://understandingwar.org/backgro...anuary-11-2022

Plus, accusing the west of providing nuclear arms to Ukraine, despite those arms actually being entirely free of fissionable material as we all know, seems like the thinnest of possible justifications.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Heffe

I'm not so sure about that. It appears as though Russia may have been pushing to move nukes into Belarus for quite some time, as a measure of strengthening control over the puppet-state.

https://understandingwar.org/backgro...anuary-11-2022

Granted, but my point still stands. Although the stationing of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus may have been planned for some time prior to the announcement, the timing of Putin's public statements re same are not coincidental. Even if the "warnings" are a fait accompli, the public pronouncements are calculated, purposeful, and directed at NATO (not China).

Originally Posted by Heffe

Plus, accusing the west of providing nuclear arms to Ukraine, despite those arms actually being entirely free of fissionable material as we all know, seems like the thinnest of possible justifications.

100%

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[Vespers War]

Ukraine is apparently about to receive 15 Viktor self-propelled anti-aircraft guns manufactured by Excalibur Army in Czech Republic. These are...well, are they still technicals if they're made in a factory?

See, the Viktor is a Toyota truck with modifications. They put a ZU-2 in the bed of the truck, which is a twin 14.5mm anti-aircraft mount. It has a day and night anti-aircraft sight and a daytime anti-ground sight. It's rigged for remote operation from the cab of the truck, so the gun doesn't need a crew member physically operating it. Each gun has a box of 300 rounds, another 300 rounds on the gun mount, and more ammo in the bed of the truck.

They're moderately sophisticated systems to use simple weapons against drones and other low-end aircraft. They're also something that would be pretty useful in a Twilight War scenario, with a base vehicle that's pretty common and easy to find parts for and a useful gun system that's rugged and reliable and usable from inside the vehicle. Armor's going to be non-existent, but that's true of pretty much anything that can be kept fueled and maintained by a small group.

[Raellus]

Finland is now a NATO member. And on the 74th anniversary of the alliance's founding, no less! Who'd have thunk it?

Could anyone have predicted this turn of events during the waning of the [1st] Cold War? Or 30 years ago? Or 20? Or even 10?

https://apnews.com/article/nato-finl...d5b752d69d76eb

Putin goes to war in large part to prevent Ukraine from increasing its ties to the EU and NATO and the result is... NATO expands, and Russia's border with NATO nations doubles.

Way to go, Vlad.

Slava Ukraini!

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[Tegyrius]

This is a very T2k article about the attrition of troops and vehicles in one Guards parachute regiment:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65179074

- C.

[Vespers War]

Apparently a former 27th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade T-90A that was captured at Kharkiv in September by Ukraine's 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade was left at a truck stop in Louisiana when its hauler broke down. So far, nobody's claiming ownership of it. I'm waiting for shenanigans to ensue.

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Finland is now a NATO member. And on the 74th anniversary of the alliance's founding, no less! Who'd have thunk it?

Could anyone have predicted this turn of events during the waning of the [1st] Cold War? Or 30 years ago? Or 20? Or even 10?

https://apnews.com/article/nato-finl...d5b752d69d76eb

Putin goes to war in large part to prevent Ukraine from increasing its ties to the EU and NATO and the result is... NATO expands, and Russia's border with NATO nations doubles.

Way to go, Vlad.

Slava Ukraini!

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I agree. Finnish public opinion following the Continuation War was to look West while balancing being wary of the USSR/Russian Federation. We know that as early as the 1950's there were quiet contacts between Finnish military officials and NATO. Then, Bad Vlad did what eighty years of the former Soviet Union and Russian policy could not do.
Even better the Finnish Defense Forces were not drawn down the way Sweden or even Norway's militaries were following the end of the Cold War. NATO has gained a very effective partner with a robust total defense concept. Can't think of a better dictator for it to happen to.

[bash]

Originally Posted by ToughOmbres

NATO has gained a very effective partner with a robust total defense concept. Can't think of a better dictator for it to happen to.

There's also the new plan to have a new allied command for the Scandinavian air forces. This includes Sweden even if Turkey and Hungary keep blocking their NATO application. So now all of Russia's arctic routes to open ocean are covered by powerful air forces. You're doing great guys, keep up the fantastic work.