OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Jason

Putin is reported to be deploying 1,000 mercenaries to Ukraine, but those reports are unconfirmed.

Is that Wagner Group? If so, that "company" is essentially just a front for Spetsnaz (the name and PMC designation is a weak attempt at plausible deniability).

Originally Posted by Jason

Big questions. Would Putin leverage captured foriegn fighters from NATO member nations to expand the war?

He could, but it would be a fairly weak pretext. I agree with BestBrian's assessment.

Originally Posted by Jason

Will NATO allow Ukrainian fighter jets to rearm amd refuel at bases outside Ukraine?

Not anytime soon, if ever. Doing so would give Russia a much stronger pretext for expanding the war.

What I'm wondering right now is what impact the refugee crisis (1.5m and counting) is going to have on EU/NATO calculus, both short and long term. Could a continuing flood of Ukrainian DPs force NATO to intervene militarily? It's unlikely, but what could happen if refugee support systems start to buckle? In the long term, if/when Russia conquers Ukraine, millions of Ukrainian refugees residing in multiple countries right next door could help sustain a very lengthy insurgency. This could cause all sorts of political and diplomatic issues between Russia and the host countries which could, again, lead to an expansion of the war.

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